Why is Richard Justice analyzing sports?

justice0620B07.gifOne of the many curious aspects about the Houston Chronicle is that the local newspaper employs Richard Justice as a sports reporter and columnist. We already know that he has trouble evaluating baseball (see also here) and football. So, today Justice nails the trifecta of incompentence in evaluating Houston’s major sports teams with this post about Houston Rockets assistant general manager Dennis Lindsey’s decision to leave the Rockets to join the San Antonio Spurs front office:

The San Antonio Spurs have the NBA’s smartest front office. The hiring of Dennis Lindsey reenforces that notion. This is a tough loss for the Rockets, a very tough loss. He was excellent at what he did. Carroll Dawson had groomed him to be his successor, but Clueless Les went for Daryl Morey.

Who is calling who “clueless?” As noted in this post from almost three years ago, the Rockets have been mismanaged for a long time. The club has not won a playoff series over the past decade, one of the few NBA teams to hold that distinction. With the exception of Yao Ming, the Rockets’ draft picks over that period have been generally mediocre or poor. As a result, the Rockets have gone from being one of the top NBA teams playing in a sold out arena to the third best NBA team in Texas with an arena that often resembles an expensive mausoleum. Although Lindsey is certainly not responsible for all of that decline, his tenure with the Rockets coincided with that downturn.
So, owner Rockets Les Alexander went outside the organization to hire a new general manager. That hire may or may not work out, but it was certainly an understandable decision. Nothing that the Rockets have accomplished during Lindsey’s tenure with the club merited that Alexander simply hand him the job. That Lindsey is apparently cordial to Justice — as was former Stros GM Gerry Hunsicker — doesn’t justify Justice simply ignoring the facts.

Voting in the Wiz’s Digital Billboard Contest

UT%20AM%20Billboard.jpgYou can now vote for your favorite submission in Jay Christensen’s college football-digital billboard competition (previous posts here and here).
With this late submission, University of Texas supporters now have a tough choice between that one and this earlier submission.

Checking in on the NBA

yao_300_051215.jpgRockets owner Les Alexander doesn’t have a clue on how to fire a coach properly, but most of Yao Ming’s fans are happy with the move, anyway.
Meanwhile, NBA Commissioner David Stern’s absurdly stubborn ruling last week that effectively derailed the Phoenix Suns’ chances of defeating the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference semi-finals has reinforced the overall lack of competitive balance in the NBA:

Of the 30 current N.B.A. teams, 14 have never won a championship. Five franchises ó Celtics, Lakers, Bulls, Pistons and Spurs ó have won 70 percent of all titles. Although the Celtics and the Lakers were not serious contenders this season, with the defeat of the Mavericks, there is a better chance that the Bulls, the Pistons or the Spurs will once again be crowned champions.
This pattern, in which the same franchises keep taking the leagueís top prize, is not seen in other sports. In the past 20 years, 11 different N.H.L. teams have hoisted the Stanley Cup. In the N.F.L., 12 different teams have won the Super Bowl. And in baseball, the league in which competitive balance is perpetually thought to be a problem, 14 different teams have won the World Series in the past two decades.

The reason for the imbalance? Somewhat surprisingly, it’s simple demographics. Read Dave Berri’s explanation here.
Speaking of demographics, did you know that the Spurs are having trouble selling tickets to the Western Conference Finals games against Utah?
Moreover, Kevin Grier over at MR proposes these common sense modifications to the NBA, to which I would add including all teams to the playoffs and using the regular season schedule to seed the playoffs and provide weighted home court advantage (say, the first three home games and the final two in a seven game series) for the first couple of playoff rounds.

Now that’s a low blow!

Rice%20billboard.jpgThis earlier post regarding the Texas-OU rivalry noted Jay Christensen’s clever college football digital billboard contest over at the sporting Wizard of Odds. The likes of Texas and Oklahoma have pretty thick hides, but now the competition has generated this billboard on little Rice University, which is still trying to figure out how to profit from being a sacrificial lamb in the big-time college football wars. I don’t think this particular billboard will be the basis of the Owls’ advertising campaign for the upcoming football season. ;^)

More on that little boondoggle

Houston%20Dynamo.jpgCharles Kuffner has an interesting post about the John Lopez column noted earlier here that suggested that the $80 million or so in public financing for the proposed downtown soccer stadium is a political payback to the minority groups that have given certain civic leaders a pass for supporting the two more expensive downtown stadiums, Minute Maid Park ($286 million) and the Toyota Center ($250 million). Kuff goes on to observe about the location of the proposed stadium:

If it’s going to be in Houston and not Sugar Land or the Woodlands, then I think downtown is fine. It will be both more convenient and more attractive than Robertson Stadium, where I presume they’re at least drawing enough of a crowd to be viable. I just think they ought to pay for that downtown stadium themselves.

Norm Chad, as an aside to his funny column regarding the Dodgers’ stadium seats that come with free food, makes the following observation about the number of folks who are really watching MLS soccer:

Column intermission: “Beckham Fever” is contagious. This month, MLS games have attracted throngs of 7,426 in Kansas City, 7,802 in New York and 9,508 in New England. One fan in Houston even thought she sighted David Beckham, but it just turned out to be a good-looking grad student from Rice wearing a Subway sandwich board.

Come to think of it, has any civic leader bothered to ask how many folks are attending Dynamo games?

Super bidding

Roger%20Staubach.jpegDallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is pulling out all of the stops today to convince the other NFL teams owners to award Dallas Super Bowl XLV in 2011 — Hall of Famer QB Roger Staubach will assist Jones in Dallas’ presentation to the team owners. Dallas’ main competition is Indianapolis, which at least is better for Dallas than competing against Miami or San Diego.
But the fact of the matter is that a Hall of Fame pitch man and new stadium isn’t enough anymore for being assured of a Super Bowl. Texans’ owner Bob McNair learned that the hard way in connection with making Houston’s presentation for the most recent Super Bowl. As a part of that presentation, McNair promised the other NFL owners a trip to a South Texas ranch for some quality quail hunting, which in these parts is a pretty powerful inducement.
Unfortunately, Dolphins’ owner Wayne Huizenga, who headed up Miami’s competing presentation, one-upped McNair. He offered each owner the use of a yacht while they were in Miami for Super Bowl week.
The owners voted for Miami by a landslide.
“Don’t worry, Bob,” Huizenga reportedly told McNair after the vote. “We’ll serve quail on the yachts.”
Update: North Texas lands its first Super Bowl.

Rationalizing the latest boondoggle

Houston%20Dynamo%20stadium.gifHoustonians are currently enduring the rationalizations of a couple of boondoggles, a big one and a relatively small one. The Chronicle is always a good source for these rationalizations, such as this romantic interlude from Chron soccer writer Glenn Davis regarding the proposed downtown soccer stadium:

[A] downtown stadium will be an unparalleled vehicle for promoting soccer. Stadiums out in the hinterlands in MLS are still trying to prove them-selves as a magnet for fans.
Fans migrating to stadiums located in the inner city can become a part of a ritual.
When I was growing up in New Jersey, my father used to take me to sporting events at Madison Square Garden in the heart of New York. The ritual began as we left the house.
Take the train from the suburbs to Hoboken, N.J., then jump on the Path train (subway) under the Hudson River. As we exited the Path and scrambled up the steps to the street, a whole new world opened up.
The streets of Manhattan were alive with vendors, scalpers hawking tickets, and fans of the New York Rangers or Knicks. The air crackled with competition and excitement.
For a kid from the suburbs, this was like going into a new world. To this day, these impressions are indelible in my mind. Whether going to Madison Square Garden or to Giants Stadium to watch PelÈ and the New York Cosmos, I always felt that sense of anticipation.
[Dynamo CEO Oliver] Luck has told me his ritual with his father was taking public transportation to go to Cleveland Indians games.
Stadiums in the U.S. have in many cases become soulless, with their flight to the suburbs and attempts to woo fans more for the buildings and their amenities than why they were built in the first place.
Stadiums should be a meeting place for like individuals from all ethnic and cultural backgrounds who come together with the common bond of a sport.

I almost broke into a solo of Kumbaya over that one. At least Chronicle sportswriter John Lopez is more realistic, if not more persuasive, of the real basis for public financing of another downtown stadium:

The predominantly white fan base that follows the Astros got theirs. The largely white and black fan base of the Rockets got theirs, too.
What about Dynamo fans? What about the fan base that has been estimated at roughly 45 percent Hispanic, 45 percent white and 10 percent Asian? [. . .]
On paper, yes. It has to make sense. But in the eyes of many, it’s also about getting the same things the Astros, Rockets and Texans fans got. Acknowledgment.

Or, as Kevin Whited muses: “So, we need a new soccer stadium downtown so that Houston can be more like Manhattan, and so that fans of what is a minor-league sport in the United States won’t cry racism?”
Meanwhile, Dennis Coates, a professor of the University of Maryland Baltimore County, provides the following persuasive analysis of the lack of any economic merit to a similar initiative to build a downtown arena in Baltimore:

Studies like that done by KPMG about a new arena for Baltimore have been thoroughly discredited by independent observers. They are much like the predictions of psychics. While a psychic’s predictions of the future are rarely assessed for their accuracy, the predictions of stadium benefits have been thoroughly scrutinized by a wide array of independent researchers. There is almost no support for any of the predictions made by the stadium and arena benefit psychics when those predictions are compared to data on what actually happened. The bottom line is the feasibility studies are more a PR process than a fact finding one. I urge you to not buy into the PR as if it is objective science.

Thus, the local debate regarding another downtown stadium is off to an inauspicious start. If proponents of the stadium deal admit in campaigning for the deal that the economic benefits of the deal are questionable, but that the intangible benefits to the community override the financial risk of the deal, then most reasoned opponents of such deals would at least be satisfied with the debate of the issues. They might not be persuaded to support the deal on that basis, but at least they would have the comfort that the public’s assessment of the deal would be based upon an honest presentation of the issues. As it stands now, the presentation of the economic issues in most stadium campaigns is muddled by highly questionable assertions of direct economic benefits derived from such deals. Here’s hoping that the Chronicle will at least promote truth in advertising in regard to the debate over the downtown soccer stadium deal.

Set up for failure

tressel%20leading%20team.jpgA question for you. Who would establish a popular entertainment business along with a hundred or so partners and then doom it to fail for most of the partners?
Answer: The presidents of the university-members of the National Collegiate Athletic Association.
This Frank Fitzpatrick/Philadelphia Daily News article sums up the dire financial picture for most of the NCAA members:

Better than 90 percent of Division I athletic programs spend more than they earn, by an average of $7.1 million annually, according to figures released yesterday by NCAA researchers.
The statistics, for 2004-05, were included in a report urging the NCAA to standardize its procedures for collecting financial data, which was presented during a meeting of the Knight Commission, a college sports watchdog agency.
Only 22 of the 313 Division I athletic departments were self-supporting, the study noted. The rest required bailouts, either direct subsidies from their institutions or student fees, to balance their books. [. . .]
The report did not identify the 22 self-sustaining schools, though commission members indicated they were all among the college football superpowers. . .

This Brent Schrotenboer/San Diego Union-Tribune article analyzes the financial challenges faced by one of the have-nots in the world of minor league professional sports, San Diego State University:

While the current fiscal year doesn’t close until June 30, the athletic department again will receive about $2.8 million in ìone-timeî or ìauxiliaryî funding from other university sources to balance its budget of about $27 million.
The infusion is necessary despite a $160 annual student fee increase implemented in 2004 by SDSU President Stephen Weber, overriding a student referendum. That has added $4.8 million to $7 million to the athletic department coffers annually. An additional $5 million in athletics revenue comes from the state general fund. [. . .]
Most athletic departments at NCAA Division I-A schools are not profitable. But for more than a decade, SDSU has needed help at a higher rate than the national average for public schools.
. . . In the two most recent fiscal years, 42.7 percent of athletics revenue has come from student fees, the general fund and other university funding, according to audited financial statements. [. . .]
Before the season, SDSU projected football ticket revenue of $3 million but ended up with only $1.9 million, forcing tightening in other athletic department expenses this year. The year before, SDSU projected $2.5 million in football revenue and brought in $2.3 million. Meanwhile, the team hasn’t finished better than 6-6 since 1998.
This year, the SDSU athletic department has a projected budget shortfall of $100,000 to $250,000 ñ even after about $2.8 million in ìone-time fundingî was arranged from a university contract with a broadband communications company. . .

The SDSU athletic program finances are the same as most other major college programs, including the University of Houston and Rice University’s programs. As noted here over a couple of years ago and in more recent posts here and here, the present structure of big-time college football and basketball is corrupt, but certainly an entertaining form of corruption. The issue is whether the leaders of NCAA member institutions have the courage to restructure college athletics in a manner that reduces the incentives for corruption while retaining many of the salutory benefits of the enterprise. Inasmuch as history indicates that such reforms will not occur under the NCAA, could a rival concern — one that treats big-time college football and basketball as the minor league professional sports enterprises that they are — be a lucrative play for an entrepreneurial entertainment or media concern?

The Big Fight

De%20La%20Hoya%20v%20Mayweather.JPGThe sad state of boxing in the U.S. is such that it has become rare that a professional bout generates much interest from the casual fans of the fight game who only check in for a truly big fight. But one of those special events is happening tonight in Las Vegas as WBC super-welterweight champion Oscar De La Hoya and Floyd Mayweather battle for the super-welterweight title. The bout will be shown on HBO pay-per-view for around $50 and has been the subject of a slick HBO documentary miniseries, “24/7,” that has followed the camp preparations of both boxers.
This is a particularly interesting fight because De La Hoya personifies strength and power in the ring while Mayweather is one of the speediest boxers of all-time. Mayweather, who is 30, is younger by four years and smaller than De La Hoya, but he is the WBC welterweight champion, is undefeated in 37 professional contests, has held world titles in four weight divisions, and is widely considered to be the best overall boxer in the fight game at this time. His nickname is “Pretty Boy Floyd” because virtually no one ever lays a glove on his face.
On the other hand, the older De La Hoya (38-4) has been known as the “Golden Boy” since he won a gold medal in the 1992 Olympics and has taken on virtually every good fighter in the 150 or so pound weight classes since that time. Although not as fast as Mayweather, De La Hoya certainly is not slow by any means and combines superb balance with one of the most lethal left hooks in boxing. Only two non-heavyweight fights have generated over over one million pay-per-view purchases and they both involved De La Hoya. This fight will be the third and will almost certainly generate the most pay-per-view purchases of any non-heavyweight fight.
One of the interesting subplots to this fight is that Mayweather’s father has been De La Hoya’s trainer for the past six years and offered to train De La Hoya for this fight against his son for a cool $2 million. De La Hoya thought about it, but ultimately declined because he decided that the arrangement would just be too weird. Maybe so, but that is precisely the type of spice that looks to make this fight special even for folks who do not tune in the fight game much.

An appropriate image

Yao%2005_04_23_vs_mavericks2.jpgThe Houston Rockets are engaged in a first round Western Conference playoff series with the Utah Jazz, which plays a style of basketball that reminds one of professional wrestling. Inasmuch as the Rockets play a rather plodding style of ball that revolves around their two stars — Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming — and attempts to minimize below-average players at the point guard and power forward positions, the first four games in this series have bordered on being unwatchable.
The fifth game in the series took place in Houston last night and began in the same boring manner as the first four. Then, midway through the second quarter, seemingly out of nowhere, the style of play quickened for both teams, players on both teams began hitting shots that they had previously missed for much of the series, and presto! — a real NBA playoff game broke out. The Rockets went on to win the surprisingly entertaining affair to take a 3-2 lead in the best of seven series.
One of the absurdities of NBA basketball is that the referees are often wildly inconsistent in the way in which they call fouls on certain dominant centers, allowing the opposing teams to pummel away on the big guys relentlessly without calling fouls, while calling fouls against the center that the refs wouldn’t think of whistling if the same action was inflicted on the center. Wilt Chamberlain was probably the first NBA center to endure this treatment, but many others — including Shaquille O’Neal recently — have experienced the same thing.
Well, the Rockets’ Yao is definitely experiencing this syndrome in the current series as the Jazz players hammer away on him with impunity. One image from the end of last night’s game speaks volumes about the absurdity of this syndrome. With over three seconds left in the game with the Rockets up by four points, Yao grabbed a rebound of a missed Utah shot and was grabbed by Utah’s Carlos Boozer to stop the clock. Although Utah’s chances were slim at that point, 3+ seconds in an NBA game is still enough time to get off a shot or two. Nevertheless, the referees refused to call a foul on Boozer, no matter how much he grabbed Yao. With a resigned look of “what the hell,” Yao finally just tossed the ball to one of the refs as the final few tenths of a second ran off the clock and started trudging toward the locker room, with scatches and bruises all over his arms clearly visible.
So it goes in the life of a big NBA center.