The Rockets’ stathead

daryl-morey.jpgCheck out this excellent Jason Friedman/Houston Press article on new Rockets general manager, Daryl Morey. As noted in this previous post, I liked Les Alexander’s decision in hiring Morey, who is a stathead. That quality has been sadly lacking in the Rockets’ management suite over the past decade as the team declined from its mid-1990’s dominance. Now, if Morey can just find the Rockets an above-average point guard.
By the way, if you want to read a blog that Morey almost certainly reads, then check out Dave Berri’s Wages of Wins. Berri is one of the co-authors of the popular Wages of Wins (Stanford 2006) that shows how statistical analysis debunks a large amount of the conventional wisdom regarding professional sports. In this post prompted by Friedman’s article on Morey, Berri explains how the traditional basketball boxscore often misleads the reader as to the effectiveness of the participants in a particular game. In my view, Berri is writing the most insightful analysis on the NBA in the blogosphere right now, and his insights on the NFL aren’t bad, either.

Sizing up the 2007-08 Rockets

Houston_Rockets_logo.pngThe beginning of the National Basketball Association‘s regular season is about a week away yawn, so Dave Berri provides this excellent statistically-based evaluation of the 2007-08 Houston Rockets. Despite the local mainstream media hype, Berri’s evaluation of this edition of the Rockets is the same as mine — probably quite good and better than last season’s good team, but likely still not good enough to beat any of the the top three teams in the Western Conference, Dallas, San Antonio and Phoenix.
For the record, it’s been over a decade since the Rockets won a playoff series.

A special moment at the sports book

sports%20book.jpgAnyone who has placed a bet or two at one of the sports books in various Las Vegas casinos can relate to the hysteria that was generated by the end of last Saturday’s Florida-Kentucky game:

A new, but obscure college football rule caused some confusion and uproar in Las Vegas on Saturday after Florida defeated Kentucky, 45-37, barely covering the seven-point spread.
Kentucky scored a touchdown on the game’s final play, yet rather than attempt an extra point, the Wildcats, following an NCAA rule put in play last season, walked off the field while the Gators celebrated.
The rule states that “if a touchdown is scored during a down in which time in the fourth period expires, the try shall not be attempted unless the point(s) would affect the outcome of the game.”
Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said Kentucky backers thought they were going to get a push, and Florida supporters started to deflate.
“That all quickly changed when the crowd began to realize the rule,” Kornegay told the Associated Press.
“The reversal of fortune happened within just a few seconds. It was priceless.”
Kornegay said the game was probably one of the more heavily bet games of the day and most football fans don’t know the rule.
At the MGM Mirage, people went “nuts,” sports book manager Jeff Stonebeck said.

Now even deer hunting regulations are running amok

deerhunting.jpgAs deer hunting season approaches, check out what regulations you have to follow simply to bag a deer in Texas these days:

When state game wardens hit the woods and fields in the wake of Texas’ Nov. 3 opening of the general deer season, those 500 or so officers can pretty much predict the violations they’re most likely to encounter.
“Tagging is the No. 1 (deer hunting-related) violation we see,” said Maj. David Sinclair of TPWD’s law enforcement division. [. . .]
In most cases, a hunter taking a deer in Texas must, immediately upon taking possession of the animal, attach to it the appropriate tag from the hunter’s license. [. . .]
Deciding which tag to use isn’t all that daunting. Five detachable tags valid for tagging whitetails are attached to the perimeter of a Texas hunting license. . . . Three of those whitetail tags are valid for tagging a buck or an antlerless deer, and two are valid only for tagging an antlerless deer.
It’s a simple thing to detach the correct tag ó a buck tag for a buck whitetail and antlerless tag for a doe.
But then some people drop the ball.
To legally tag a deer, the hunter must fill out, in ink, the requested information on the back of the tag ó the name of the ranch or lease on which the deer was taken and the county in which that hunting area is located.
Also, the month and date the deer was taken has to be cut out of the tag. Cut out. Not marked with a pen. Cut out. [. . .]
But the most common deer-related violation was failure to complete the white-tailed deer log on the back of the hunting license.
The deer log was created this decade when the state seemed to be moving away from requiring tags be attached to deer. The log, printed on the back of the license, was seen as a way to keep track of how many deer, buck and doe, a hunter had taken, where they were taken and when.
The move to do away with deer tags has lost momentum. But the deer log remains. And it’s surprising how many deer hunters don’t know about the log requirement, forget to complete it or ignore it.
This past year, TPWD game wardens issued more than 500 citations for failing to complete the deer log.
As with the other tagging-related violations, hunters charged with not completing the deer log face a Class C misdemeanor. Conviction brings a fine of as much as $500.

Sheesh! Let’s hope the regulators don’t start piling on similar rules for hunting these.

Thinking about improving the NBA

steve%20nash.jpgWith the opening of the NBA pre-season tonight (“yawn”), Clear Thinkers favorite Bill James (previous posts here) provides this interesting article on how the study of professional leagues has lagged behind the study of professional teams and how the lack of competitive balance may ultimately undermine a league such as the NBA. David Berri provides this blog post analyzing James’ article in which he suggests that the NBA’s lack of competitive balance is not really that much of a problem after all. Skip Sauer makes the same point here.
At any rate, regardless of the competitive balance issue, here are my suggestions for improving the NBA, which is often unwatchable before the playoffs:

1. Limit the regular season to 50 games and begin play during or right after the Thanksgiving holiday. Who watches basketball before then anyway?
2. Use the regular season to seed the playoffs and to determine home court advantage.
3. All teams make the initial round of the playoffs and all playoff series are best of seven games except for the first round, which would be the best of nine.

Officially neutralizing a scandal

NBAlogo%20082207.gifAs noted earlier here, I doubted from the beginning that the NBA’s latest point-shaving scandal would have much of an impact on the NBA enterprise. Consistent with that prediction, the NBA just announced that it has just taken the standard step of pushing a scandal into the background:

The National Basketball Association has selected a former United States attorney to review its antigambling policies and the leagueís overall officiating program.
Lawrence B. Pedowitz, a partner at the New York firm of Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen and Katz, will conduct the review, which comes in response to the recent scandal surrounding a referee who conspired with professional gamblers.
ìThere is nothing as important as the integrity of our game and the covenant we have with our fans,î Commissioner David Stern said in a statement. ìIn order to preserve their trust, we will make every effort possible to ensure that our processes and procedures are the best they can be.î

Translation: “We’re going to investigate this matter for a long time and hope you all just forget about it.”

Biased referees and umpires

Tim%20Donaghy.jpgSo, former NBA referee Tim Donaghy finally pleaded guilty to two felonies during a hearing at the United States District Court in Brooklyn yesterday in connection with the NBA gambling scandal that appears to have mostly blown over. As noted earlier here, that NBA insiders engage in gambling is about as surprising as gambling taking place in Rick’s Cafe in Casablanca.
At the same time, Skip Sauer passes along this post about research that indicates that baseball umpires are not as pristine as the driven snow, either:

Calling strikes & discrimination in baseball
Here is the main finding from a working paper by Parsons, Sulaeman, Yates and Hamermesh:
What are the main results of the study?
There are three. First, umpires are more likely to call strikes for pitchers who share their race/ethnicity. The second result is an extension of the first: Umpires are more likely to express a preference for their own race/ethnicity only when their behavior is less closely scrutinized: 1) in parks where QuesTec (a computerized system set up to monitor and review an umpireís ball and strike calls) is not installed, 2) in poorly attended games, and 3) on pitches where the umpireís call cannot determine the outcome of the at-bat. Finally, game outcomes are influenced by the race/ethnicity match between starting pitchers and home-plate umpires. Home teams are more (less) likely to win a game when their starting pitcher and home plate umpire have the same (a different) race/ethnicity.

Skip’s post has links to the study and various related information.

The latest point shaving scandal

basketball-section.jpgWith the news from Friday that just-resigned National Basketball Association referee Tim Donaghy bet on NBA games that he officiated over the past couple of seasons, we have been deluged with media predictions over the weekend that the “integrity of the game” has been compromised and that this is a huge problem for the NBA.
Frankly, my reaction was quite similar to that of Captain Renault’s in Casablanca after the Nazis ordered him to close down Rick’s — “I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!” (exclaimed while picking up his winnings).
In short, I don’t think the fact that an NBA referee was on the take will affect the entertainment value of the NBA one iota, and Dave Berri’s Sports Economist post explains why. My sense is that the biggest problem that the NBA will face in this entire episode is (1) explaining why the league office did not suspend Donaghy when it learned that he had a gambling problem and was somewhat of a loose cannon, and (2) if Donaghy, in an effort to obtain a more favorable sentence, starts fingering other point shaving referees. But as this NY Times article explains, NBA referees are already monitored closely, so the risk that a widespread point shaving problem exists among referees is unlikely.

“Hook’em what?”

Hook%27em%20Horns2.jpgThis Washington Post article reports on a U.S. Joint Forces Command commissioned Rand Corp. study that examines how U.S. credibility is often undermined when American media images are misinterpreted in foreign countries. Supporters of the University of Oklahoma and Texas A&M University will be happy to learn that the picture on the left of President Bush and others flashing the University of Texas’ famous “Hook’em Horns” gesture was used as one of the study’s examples, with the following description:

Background: President Bush makes a “hook’em horns” gesture familiar to University of Texas fans during the 2005 inaugural parade.
Rand Commentary: “Unfortunately, that particular gesture is not unique to Texas, and it carries different meanings elsewhere in the world. Norwegians seeing the image were shocked to see the president of the United States making the ‘Sign of the devil.’ Mediterranean viewers and those in parts of Central and South America . . . saw the president indicating that someone’s wife was unfaithful.”

Also looks like excellent material for the Marching Owl Band’s halftime performance during Rice’s September 22nd game against UT. ;^)

Want a season ticket? Take out a mortgage

Yankee%20stadium%20new.jpgConde Nast’s Megan Barnett reports on how the lion’s share of the new Yankee Stadium is apparently going to be financed. The idea is that the seats in the new Yankees Stadium will be sold in advance to investors who will own them in perpetuity. Morgan Stanley and its partner, a start-up entity called Stadium Capital Financing Group, are hoping that their structure becomes the accepted way of privately-financing sports stadiums. They have even applied for a patent regarding the concept, which seems like a stretch. Here’s how it would work:

Fans would buy seats for a designated period of time and finance them much like a mortgage. Pricing mechanisms can vary, but the most appealing option for buyers might be a 30-year loan with an annual payment equal to the current price of a season ticket. In exchange, the seat becomes real property, equivalent to, say, a condominium. The team (or university or other owner) receives the principal amount of the loan up front, to put toward construction costs.
This arrangement is different from seat licensing, which gives the holder the right to buy a season ticket for a specific seat. . . . Under [the] system, people own seats, not shares of a team.
Say, for instance, the current price of a season baseball ticket is $3,240. A 30-year loan at 6 percent interest with an annual payment of $3,240 results in a principal amount of $45,000. Even if the price of the seat doubles in the next 20 years, the seat owner still pays $3,240. Investors will have the option of making annual payments over 30 years, paying the entire amount up front, or something in between. Owners can also sell their seats at any time for market value, but rest assuredóthe team will get a cut of any profits.

At least one expert on financing stadiums, though, does not believe the financing technique will be all that earth shattering:

Roger Noll, a Stanford University economics professor who has written extensively about stadium financing, says that such an approach might make a dent in required public funding but will never replace it. Noll points out that most teams can’t afford to sacrifice future revenues in order to pay for their ball fields. “At the end of the day, stadiums are not good investments,” he says. “This isn’t going to be a revolution.”

H’mm, think this might work to defray the cost of this proposed boondoggle?