Ripples of the Delta-Northwest deal

Continental Airlines logo 041608 B The merger agreement between Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines (they were meant for each other) announced yesterday not only would create the world’s largest carrier if approved, but it has renewed talk (see this W$J article, too) in Houston over the fate of one of the city’s largest employers, Continental Airlines.

Continental’s future has been the subject of conjecture over the years. This post from a couple of months ago summed up the current situation in anticipation of the Delta-Northwest merger. Unfortunately, Continental’s most likely merger candidates — United Airlines and American Airlines — are not particularly attractive partners at this point. As airline consultant Adam Pilarski noted in this Scott McCartney/W$J column, "There’s no history of anything good that happens in [airline] mergers. Two drunks holding each other up is not a good idea." The W$J’s Holman Jenkins speculates as to why this is the case in the chronically-profitless airline industry, which Richard Anderson and Doug Steenland, CEOs of Delta and Northwest, argue the contrary position.

The proposed Delta-Northwest merger would create a behemoth company with more than $35 billion in annual revenues, a mainline fleet of almost 800 planes and a combined workforce of 75,000 people. Interestingly, the most successful US airline is the polar opposite of that structure.

 

An eternal optimist

ray_kurzweil_01 Don’t tell Ray Kurzweil that we ought to be all gloomy about the prospects for mankind. This WaPo op-ed reflects that he is downright bullish:

MIT was so advanced in 1965 (the year I entered as a freshman) that it actually had a computer. Housed in its own building, it cost $11 million (in today’s dollars) and was shared by all students and faculty. Four decades later, the computer in your cellphone is a million times smaller, a million times less expensive and a thousand times more powerful. That’s a billion-fold increase in the amount of computation you can buy per dollar.

Yet as powerful as information technology is today, we will make another billion-fold increase in capability (for the same cost) over the next 25 years. That’s because information technology builds on itself — we are continually using the latest tools to create the next so they grow in capability at an exponential rate. This doesn’t just mean snazzier cellphones. It means that change will rock every aspect of our world. The exponential growth in computing speed will unlock a solution to global warming, unmask the secret to longer life and solve myriad other worldly conundrums. [.  .  .]

Take energy. Today, 70 percent of it comes from fossil fuels, a 19th-century technology. But if we could capture just one ten-thousandth of the sunlight that falls on Earth, we could meet 100 percent of the world’s energy needs using this renewable and environmentally friendly source. We can’t do that now because solar panels rely on old technology, making them expensive, inefficient, heavy and hard to install. But a new generation of panels based on nanotechnology (which manipulates matter at the level of molecules) is starting to overcome these obstacles. The tipping point at which energy from solar panels will actually be less expensive than fossil fuels is only a few years away. The power we are generating from solar is doubling every two years; at that rate, it will be able to meet all our energy needs within 20 years.

I just thought I’d toss in that third paragraph for those in the oil and gas industry that believe that a period like the mid-to-late 1980’s can’t happen again. Meanwhile, light, sweet crude oil futures for May delivery settled yesterday at $111.76, a new record, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Another one-planer wins The Masters

trevor_immelman_swing_3 Last year it was Zach Johnson (see also here). This year, it’s Trevor Immelman. What’s the deal with all these one-plane swingers dominating the Masters Tournament? Could it have something to do with the fact that neither Johnson last year nor Immelman this year ever seemed to miss a fairway? Immelman hit 48 out of 56 fairways on Augusta’s 4’s and 5’s during the tournament; Johnson hit 45 last year.

By the way, Immelman tuned up for his Masters victory by shooting 73-72 and missing the cut last week at the Shell Houston Open.

Geoff Shackelford’s collection of links on the final day of the Masters is here and the link to his previous daily reports from the week is here.

Finally, Tiger Woods finished second for the second straight year after a relatively poor week of putting on Augusta National’s slick greens (interestingly, the dominant Woods has won only one of the last six Masters Tournaments). I know Tiger is popular and all, but the following excerpt from this Martin Johnson/Daily Telegraph article reflects that some Tiger admirers have gone completely over the top:

The Woods mystique is such that he can even cause a riot, or close to it, by eating a banana. When Woods peeled one on Saturday and threw away the skin, there was a mad stampede to grab it as a souvenir.

The block of the chip passes away

Arnold Kling 041208B Arnold Kling of EconLog has long been a Clear Thinkers favorite, particularly in the area of health care finance. That was the subject of this recent post regarding Arnold’s coordination of health care for his elderly father, Merle Kling, who passed away on Tuesday.

Take a moment to read Arnold’s touching post on his father, who was quite a remarkable fellow. Arnold is a chip off a very solid old block.

America’s slipping grip on golf

Dubai-golf First, PGA Tour events had to worry about the Tiger Chasm. Now, this W$J article reports that they also need to worry about competition from tournaments in foreign venues:

The U.S. has, for decades, held sway over the international golf calendar. Three of the four most-prestigious tournaments happen in the U.S. (in tennis, no nation has more than one of the four Grand Slams). The PGA Tour also has long been the world’s most-lucrative circuit, with an estimated $278 million in prize money this year.

As golf explodes in popularity throughout the world, especially in developing nations, an increasing number of tournaments are popping up in places such as Dubai, Qatar, Shanghai and Singapore. On the subcontinent, the Masters and the Johnnie Walker Classic — two recent events sanctioned by the European Tour — attracted several top stars, including South African Ernie Els, Fijian Vijay Singh and Australian Adam Scott.

As these events draw richer and more-aggressive backers, they have been offering more prize money. In November 2009, Dubai will host the Dubai World Championship, which will feature a prize purse of $10 million, making it the most-lucrative golf tournament ever for players.

Meanwhile, the declining dollar has lowered the relative value of purses at U.S. tournaments, making these Asian, Middle Eastern and European gigs harder for players to ignore. When asked during his stay in New Delhi whether he expected more top players to play outside the U.S., Mr. Els quipped, "The way the dollar is going, I’m sure."

On top of that, many newer Asian and European tournaments are paying large appearance fees to some top pros to guarantee that the field will be competitive (such fees are banned in the U.S.). That means marquee names can make big sums even when they blow their chances of winning — as Mr. Els did at the Indian Masters with a nine on the final hole of the first round. Tiger Woods reportedly received $3 million to play in the Dubai Desert Classic in February. (Mr. Woods’s agent declined to comment.)

The top flight of golfers is itself becoming more international. In 1999, 33 of the top 50 players in the world came from the U.S. Today 34 of the top 50 players come from outside America. The Qatar Masters, a European Tour event in January, attracted nine of the world’s top 25, the same number that the U.S. tour’s Buick Invitational in San Diego drew the same week. Spain’s Sergio Garcia, America’s Scott Verplank and Mr. Scott, the world’s No. 5 player, all chose Qatar over California.

"I think the majority of players look on the world as a global competition," said South African golfer Gary Player. Within five years, Mr. Player predicted, international events will be just as important as the PGA Tour.

With such heightened foreign competition, the Shell Houston Open’s decision to accept being scheduled the week before The Masters looks like a stroke of genius. Few of the best players who like to prepare for The Masters by playing in a tournament the week before will want to play in a tournament overseas because of the long travel that would be required immediately before playing in The Masters.

Remember Kelo?

Brooklyn NEts Check out this recent Second Circuit decision (H/T to Robert Loblaw) as an example of how the appellate courts are applying the U.S. Supreme Court’s controversial 2006 decision in Kelo v. New London. Kelo allows the state to seize private property to facilitate private re-development as a legitimate form of "public use" under the U.S. Constitution.

Kelo has been widely criticized for creating perverse incentives for politically well-connected real estate developers to exercise their political clout where negotiation with private property owners didn’t generate the developers’ desired result. The Second Circuit case involves the huge redevelopment plan in downtown Brooklyn that will primarily benefit Bruce Ratner, a wealthy New York real estate developer. In addition to the ubiquitous office buildings and high-rise condos involved in such deals, the redevelopment will include a new arena for the New Jersey (soon to be Brooklyn) Nets NBA basketball club. Although most of the property to be contributed to the development is public land, the redevelopment plan also requires the state to seize several tracts of private property through exercise of its eminent domain power.

The private property owners sued and argued that the state’s claim of public benefit is a facade, as the Second Circuit puts it, "to benefit Bruce Ratner, the man whose company first proposed it and who serves as the Project’s primary developer. Ratner is also the principal owner of the New Jersey Nets. In short, the plaintiffs argue that all of the ‘public uses’ the defendants have advanced for the Project are pretexts for a private taking that violates the Fifth Amendment."

The Second Circuit upheld U.S. District Court dismissal of the property owners’ claims, explaining that the massive private benefits to Ratner do not trump the state’s judgment that the project will also benefit the public. Moreover, even though the costs to the property owners may far outweigh the public benefits, the Second Circuit concludes that type of cost/benefit analysis is irrelevant under Kelo:

At the end of the day, we are left with the distinct impression that the lawsuit is animated by concerns about the wisdom of the Atlantic Yards Project and its effect on the community. While we can well understand why the affected property owners would take this opportunity to air their complaints, such matters of policy are the province of the elected branches, not this Court.

Given such dubious "public" ventures as this, the implications of the foregoing interpretation of Kelo are downright frightening.

It’s time for The Masters

Augusta National Scorecard3 It’s the week of The Masters golf tournament, so I’m passing along a copy of the Augusta National scorecard that my late father used when he shot a cool 99 at the course back in the mid-1970’s. The weather forecast for the tournament is looking a bit dicey on Saturday and Sunday.

Golf course design consultant and golf blogger extraordinaire Geoff Shackelford is doing an outstanding job at GolfWorld of organizing the media pieces and blog posts about the tournament — here are his Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and the weekend reports. And he is even finding time to blog a bit as this post decries what has become of the Masters par-3 tournament. Check back each day of the week as Geoff will provide the most comprehensive launching pad of links relating to the tournament. The Wall Street Journal’s very good golf writer, John Paul Newport, is also blogging the tournament here.

Meanwhile, golf author and blogger Daniel Wexler provides this entertaining post on the ten best golfers who never won the Masters and this interesting hole-by-hole analysis of how the changes to Augusta National’s back nine have altered  Augusta National Scorecard4 the shot-making options that course architects Bobby Jones and Alister McKenzie emphasized in designing the venerable layout. He concludes:

So in the end, is this present incarnation a better nine than existed in the beginning?  From the perspective of keeping modern golfers from going low, absolutely – plus the 11th, 12th, 13th and 15th remain, altered or not, among the most exciting holes in the history of the game.  The problem is that the addition of rough and trees does not add (or even complement existing) strategy; it simply makes it harder for the golfer to post a good score.  This may salve the egos of present-day club leaders, but re-reading this column’s opening quote, and considering that it was final-nine drama – the rapid-fire eagles, bogeys and “others” – that used to make the Masters so utterly unique, I keep finding myself wondering:

What’s wrong with great scores?

Finally, the Masters has been a frequent topic on this blog, so the following are a few Masters-related posts from over the years:

Ken Venturi and Arnold Palmer’s little snit over that embedded ball at the 1958 Masters.

Phil Mickelson wins his first Masters in 2004 and Masters’ expert Dan Jenkins puts it all in perspective.

Remember Martha Burk?

Read about some of Dan Jenkins’ favorite Masters moments and how he "birdied his bypass." Also, don’t miss this post in which Jenkins describes Chris DiMarco’s putting grip and what Mickelson and Tiger Woods were saying to each other as Mickelson helped Woods into his fourth green jacket during the 2005 awards ceremony.

Culture shock — John Daly on the Augusta National driving range.

A golfing Zimbabwe (see also here) and a salute to the King.

A fellow Iowa native makes good at The Masters.

Good Travis Street Eats

breakfastclub Look at what street is number two in Good Magazine’s seven Tastiest American Streets for good restaurants.

Enjoying John Adams

john adams My son Cody and I have been thoroughly enjoying each Sunday night episode of the HBO mini-series John Adams, which is based upon David McCullough’s brilliant biography of Adams. Given the extraordinary talents, troubling contradictions and fascinating relationships among the pivotal leaders of the American revolutionary era — Adams, Washington, Jefferson, Hamilton, Madison, Franklin and Burr, among others — I have always wondered why some enterprising filmmaker hadn’t made a first-rate movie about the era. John Adams producer Tom Hanks should be commended for pulling it off in a splendid manner. Rebecca Cusey’s favorable review of the mini-series is here.

My vote for the book upon which the next movie of this era should be based — Ron Chernow’s Alexander Hamilton (Penguin Press 2004). Two other excellent recent books on this era are Jay Winik’s The Great Upheaval (Harper 2007) and Joseph Ellis’ American Creation: Triumphs and Tragedies at the Founding of the Republic (Knopf 2007).

Acupuncture or fake acupuncture?

acupuncture 040608This Respectful Insolence blog post reports on yet another in an increasingly long line of medical studies that demonstrate that acupuncture is nothing more than an elaborate and fancy placebo. In this particular study involving patients in "true" acupuncture and "fake" acupuncture protocols, patients in the sham acupuncture group improved more than patients in the "true" acupuncture group.

My conclusion? On one hand, if you stick pins in people who are complaining about something, then some of them will eventually quit complaining. On the other hand, if you take pins out of some people who were previously complaining, then some of them will also stop complaining.