How will Obamacare ration care?

homer_beer During the latter stages of the debate over reform of the American health finance system, one of the key issues that seemed to fade amidst the rhetoric was the question of how the revamped health finance system will ration care (see also here). Inasmuch as it is still not clear to me how care will be rationed under Obamacare, this recent Happy Hospitalist post caught my eye:

I’m down in the ER the other day when I see a chief complaint fly by on the radar.  What is that chief complaint you ask? ìRefused by Detox.î

The patient was so drunk, even the community detox center refused them.  So how did this play out?  The patient was taken by ambulance from his home to a small town community ER for altered mental status.  There, he was  booked into the ER and seen by a small town community ER physician family practice resident or PA or NP.  Diagnosis you ask? ìAcute alcohol intoxication. Plan:  Discharge to community detox center.î

The patient was then transported to detox  by a cop where he was promptly refused by detox for being too drunk. Too drunk for detox.  How sad is that.  At this point another ambulance was called and the small town hospital refused to accept him back because he was "too drunk" for them to handle if he became comatose and critically ill.

So the ambulance drove him 75 miles to Happy’s hospital which has to accept him, where he was promptly booked into the emergency department in front of the 28 year old with heart burn, the 19 year old looking to get a pregnancy test and the 14 year old who’s mother brought her in because she just had her first period.  What happened with our drunk?  He was promptly placed in a room where stat lab confirmed what everyone else had suspected.  He was drunk.  The big city ER doctor billing $500 an hour proudly made his diagnosis and disposition plans known to the world: ìAcute alcohol intoxication. Plan: Discharge to community detox.î

By now, the patient’s alcohol level was down to 320 and he was awake, responsive and asking for a samich as the cops show up to take him away. Let’s conservatively add it up:

  • Two ambulance rides $1,000
  • Two ER visits $3,000
  • Two ER physician visits $500

Almost $5,000 to take care of a drunk in which doing nothing would have given you the same result.  And you wonder why Medicaid is going bankrupt.

The Hospitalist goes on to point out how expenses such as the foregoing is eventually going to lead to failure of many inner-city hospitalists. But an equally troubling issue is whether anything will change in regard to future opportunities for misallocation of expenses under an increasingly subsidized health care system?

Frankly, I doubt it.

The NFL’s big risk

everett_600.jpgThis post from awhile back noted the high risks that NFL football players take relative to their compensation.

Well, it looks as if that risk may be coming home to roost:

Californiaís workersí compensation system provides a unique, and relatively unknown, haven for retired professional athletes among the 50 states, allowing hundreds of long-retired veterans each year to file claims for injuries sustained decades before. Players need not have played for California teams or be residents of the state; they had to participate in just one game in the state to be eligible to receive lifetime medical care for their injuries from the teams and their insurance carriers.

About 700 former N.F.L. players are pursuing cases in California, according to state records, with most of them in line to receive routine lump-sum settlements of about $100,000 to $200,000. This virtual assembly line has until now focused on orthopedic injuries, with torn shoulders and ravaged knees obvious casualties of the playersí former workplace.

Given the dozens and perhaps hundreds of players who could file similar claims, experts in the California system said N.F.L. teams and their insurers could be facing liability of $100 million or more. They identified a wide spectrum of possible effects: these costs could merely represent a financial nuisance for a league that recorded $8.5 billion in revenue last year, or, if insurance costs rise drastically because of such claims, the N.F.L. could be forced to alter its rules to reduce head trauma. Officials already are considering decreased contact in practice and forbidding linemen from using the three-point stance.

Perhaps the NFLís undervaluing of this risk is a product of a false sense of security that the NFL owners have nurtured from a collective bargaining process that has shielded the league from most anti-trust liabilities over the years. But the NFL owners better pay attention to this development. Plaintiffsí lawyers will have a field day against that group.

Batter up! Stros 2010 Season Preview

Minute_Maid_Park With the opening of Major League Baseballís season, this is the seventh (!) HCT preview  (previous ones here) of the Strosí upcoming season. But with the continued development of the blogosphere over the past seven years, itís time to change the way in which HCT covers the Stros and MLB.

The reason for the change is simple. When this blog started in early 2004, coverage of the Stros was limited pretty much to the local mainstream mediaís coverage, which has been mostly bad. However, over the past 6+ years, the blogosphere has exploded and now a large number of bloggers and Twitterers cover the Stros on a daily basis better than either the mainstream media or this blog:

Astros County/http://twitter.com/Astroscounty

Crawfish Boxes/http://twitter.com/crawfishboxes

Zac Levineís Unofficial Scorer/http://twitter.com/thescorer

Alysonís Footnotes/https://twitter.com/alysonfooter

Tagís Lines

Kiss My Astros

AstrosDaily.com

A Misplaced Astros Fan (quite good, but not updated recently)

Also, the following sites come in handy while following the Stros and MLB:

Stats MLB site

Coolstandings.com site (continually updated playoff odds)

Baseball Reference.com

Stros Sortable Stats

Stros Active Roster

Stros 40-man Roster

With all this coverage, Iím no longer going to cover the Stros in the depth or regularity that I have in previous seasons. I will continue to post occasional observations about the Stros and baseball, particularly when the mainstream media passes along myths and misconceptions. But check out the resources above for really good and comprehensive coverage of the Stros.

With regard to the Stros, not much has changed since last yearís dismal 74-88 season. That club failed to make the playoffs for the fourth straight season since the Stros 2005 World Series appearance. This season’s club is arguably weaker than last season’s club, so it would appear that playoff contention remains a pipe dream.

As Iíve been saying for years now, the Stros have been a team in decline for a long time even though generally superior pitching during the 2002-2006 seasons masked that downturn. Owner Drayton McLane cleaned house toward the end of the disastrous 72-90 2007 season and the club is now firmly in the process of rebuilding its farm system, which had deteriorated into one of MLB’s worst over the latter stages of the Biggio-Bagwell era

Last season, the Stros were muddling around with a .500 record based on slightly above-average hitting and slightly below-average pitching as of All-Star break when the pitching staff fell apart during third quarter, saving an astounding 43 fewer runs during that 40-game stretch than a National League-average pitching staff would have saved over those games. The pitching continued to go south during the final quarter of the season while the hitting fell apart completely down the stretch, which left the Stros with a 74-88 record, a ñ77 RSAA and a ñ34 RCAA

Frankly, this performance level was easily predictable given what Baseball Prospectus has dubbed the "stars-and-scrubs" Stros roster. The Stros continue to play out a weak hand of a few above-average stars and below-average balance of the roster while attempting to deal with the long-overdue rebuilding program that has became necessary — but was generally ignored — during the final years of the Biggio-Bagwell era. GM Ed Wade and Scouting Director Bobby Heck have completed their third straight strong draft in terms of numbers, so the rebuilding program is in full swing. But it’s going to take another year or two before any appreciable amount of that investment begins to payoff at the MLB level.

This season, expect the Strosí pitching staff to improve somewhat (could it really get worse than last seasonís?), although itís not a good sign that Roy Oswalt (-1 RSAA/4.12 ERA/8-6 W-L) has already had to have a cortisone shot to treat a deteriorating disc condition that contributed to his worst MLB season last year. Moreover, itís quite probable that the hitting will be worse this season given that the Stros best hitter ñ 1B Lance Berkman ñ is coming off his least productive MLB season (31 RCAA/.399 OBA/.509 SLG/.907 OPS/25 HR/80 RBI in 136 games) since his 2000 rookie season and will start the season on the disabled list for a few games with a balky knee.

Thankfully, the rest of the National League Central is not overwhelming. The Cardinals and the Cubs appear to be the class of the division and my sense is that the Reds are the most likely club to make a jump up the standings this season. It appears that the Stros will be fighting it out to avoid the cellar with the Brewers and the Pirates. As a result, an over/under of 73 wins for the Stros seems about right.< /p>

Nevertheless, despite the Strosí woes, I continue to enjoy watching Major League Baseball. This will be the 25th straight season that Iíve had season tickets to the Stros games. Iíve seen some really good teams during that span and some really bad ones, too. But my curiosity about the game has never wavered. It wonít this season, either.

Play ball!

Underwater astonishments

David Galloís remarkable footage during his 2008 TED lecture.

Could this persuade the Aggies to consider female cheerleaders?

The yell leaders could have some fun with this.

Update: Turns out that A&M does have female cheerleaders, albeit “competitive cheer” only. The squad is called the Texas A&M Competition Squad (http://competitionsquad.tamu.edu/).

De Vany on PED’s, Diet and Exercise

When you have a free hour, don’t miss Russ Roberts’ fascinating EconTalk interview of Clear Thinkers favorite Art De Vany.

Performance enhancing drugs resulted in new records in baseball?

Pure conjecture. More likely the records are simply the result of outliers.

The more exercise, the better?

Nope. Intensity and randomness is the key to an effective exercise regimen. Forget the jogging.

We’re healthier than our ancestors?

Not really, unless you’re fasting frequently and controlling your insulin levels.

Provocative stuff. Don’t miss it.

The genius of Southwest Airlines

southwest_airlines2009-03-20-1237554250 Southwest Airlines has been a favorite of this blog over the years because of the companyís intelligent approach to business, often while running counter to the prevailing airline industry ìwisdom.î

Thus, as other airlines discourage customers from checking baggage by charging baggage fees, Southwest encourages customers to check baggage by not charging any such fees. The reason? Because, as Eric Joiner explains, it helps Southwest make money:

Southwest Airlines flies a network within the United States that uses basically one airplane. The Boeing 737. For this reason, baggage capacity is fairly consistent with passenger load. Also anyone making a connection is likely to make a connection to another SWA 737, so baggage load factor remains fairly consistent across the network. This has major advantages.

By inspiring customers to check bags, aircraft can be loaded and unloaded much faster than if passengers carry bags onto the main deck and put them in the overhead bin. Anyone who has been on a fully loaded jet recently knows it can take 15-20 minutes just to get the passengers off the plane. The bigger the jet, the longer this takes. Time spent on the ground means time not in the air. Airlines only make money when the jet is flying. By encouraging passengers to check bags and by operating a homogeneous network, SWA can turn flights faster and thus create more profit for the airline.  

What you are actually witnessing is an extension of Southwestís fuel strategy. SWA has always done a brilliant job of fuel cost hedging.  That is buying futures in jet fuel against probable market cost at time of consumption.  Turning aircraft faster means more revenue for the fuel already purchased. Consider this a post hedge leverage on the gas in the tank.

Isnít it interesting that Congress periodically attempts to stifle precisely this type of innovative wealth and job creation?

The criminalization-of-business lottery continues

Greg Reyes So, after having been tried and convicted once in 2007, and having that conviction subsequently overturned because of prosecutorial misconduct, former Brocade Communications CEO executive Greg Reyes was convicted again last week on nine counts of securities fraud and making false statements in connection with his involvement in backdating stock options.

Alas, the criminalization-of-business lottery continues in regard to another business practice that simply should not be a crime. Frankly, Reyesí real crime appears to be that he is not Steve Jobs.

Unfortunately, the publicity surrounding this recent disclosure ñ which took place during Reyesí trial ñ probably didnít help Reyes much.

It probably wonít help Robert Furst, either, who is the next unlucky executive who will be put on the merry-go-round of an utterly baseless and random prosecution.

Meanwhile, the different trajectories of these two lives really makes one wonder about the purpose of all this?

Back in 2006, Larry Ribstein was the first blogger to challenge the backdating prosecutions. The utter vacuity of those prosecutions proved that his skepticism was correct. I cannot improve upon Professor Ribsteinís characterization of the true scandal relating to the backdating of stock options:

ìThe real backdating scandal is not the one that has been generally reported. It is, instead, the woeful inadequacy of mainstream business reporting compounded by prosecutorial misconduct.î

A truly civil society would find a better way.

It’s Shell Houston Open week

1G Seventh Hole tee The PGA Tour makes its annual trek to Texas this week for the Shell Houston Open at the Tournament Course at Redstone Golf Club. Itís always a fun event and well worth attending.

After a rocky divorce from The Woodlands and its popular TPC Course, as well as a difficult transition period in which most of the best PGA Tour players avoided the event, the 2009 tournament attracted the best field in the history of the event. The 2010 tournament has followed that up with an arguably an even stronger field as six of the the top 10 players in the World Rankings are playing. As a result, the field is as good as any of the non-major, non-World Golf Championship events on the Tour.

Phil Mickelson (3), Lee Westwood (4), defending SHO champ Paul Casey (5), Martin Kaymer (8), Ernie Els (9) and Padraig Harrington (10) lead the field, while Rory McIlroy (12), Geoff Ogilvy (14), Luke Donald (20), Hunter Mahan (21), Lucas Glover (25), Charl Schwartzel (26), Anthony Kim (27), PGA champ Y.E. Yang (29), Masters champ Angel Cabrera (32) and Vijay Singh (34) are other well-known Tour members in the field. In addition, local fan favorites such as past SHO winners Fred Couples, Adam Scott and Stuart Appleby are playing.

The first Houston Open was in 1922 and the tournament is tied with the Texas Open as the third oldest non-major championship on the PGA Tour behind only only the Western Open (1899) and the Canadian Open (1904). This is the fifth Houston Open to be played on the Tournament Course and the eighth event overall at Redstone, which hosted its first three Houston Opens on the club’s Jacobson-Hardy Course while the Tournament Course was being built.

This is the SHO’s fourth year of being played the week before The Masters and the strong field is further confirmation that the tournamentís move to the week-before-The Masters-date was the right one. The Houston Golf Association continues to do a good job of promoting the tournament with Tour players by grooming the Tournament Course in a manner similar to Augusta National. However, the course is actually a flat-land course that bears little resemblance to the hilly venues of Augusta.

Even with its superior conditioning, the Tournament Course is a not a favorite of either players or spectators. Although is has a decent variety of interesting holes, the routing of the course is an unmitigated disaster, with 16 of the holes separated by a long walk and a drainage ditch from the 1st and 18th holes, the driving range and the clubhouse.

Unfortunately, there is not much the Houston Golf Association can do about that routing problem, so let’s just hope that the course’s superior conditioning and the SHO’s attractive tune-up date for The Masters keeps prompting the top players to overlook the routing problem. Here are a few tips on watching the tournament at Redstone.

Although I’ve had my doubts that the HGA would be able to turnaround the SHO at Redstone, I’m happy to be wrong on that score. Houston has a rich golfing tradition and the HGA is a fine charitable organization. It’s going to be another great week at Redstone, so sit back and enjoy the SHO!