Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic of the Stros

The worst kept secret in Houston this week was exposed today as the Stros fired Jimy Williams this afternoon, ending his 2 1/2 season stint with the club. The Stros named former Stro player and coach, Phil “Scrap Iron” Garner to replace Williams for the rest of this season.
Stros hitting coach Harry Spilman and pitching coach Burt Hooton were also fired and replaced by AAA hitting coach Gary Gaetti and Jim Hickey, respectively. Spilman was the club’s minor league field coordinator when he was named the Stros’ hitting coach in June 2000 after the club fired Tom McGraw. Hooton was the AA Round Rock pitching coach when he was named pitching coach during the middle of the 2000 season after Vern Ruhle was canned.
I always thought Williams was a rather odd choice as the manager for the Stros, and his record with the club justified my skepticism. Williams was 215-197 as the Stros manager. The 2002 club (84-78) was second in the NL Central, but finished 13 games behind the Cardinals and 11 games behind the Giants for the wild card playoff spot. The 2003 club (87-75) finished second by a game to the Cubs in the NL Central and four games behind the Marlins for the wild card spot. As we all know, this year’s club is 44-44 at the All-Star Break, 10.5 games behind the Cards in the NL Central and 4 games behind in the race for the wild card spot.
The Pythagorean winning percentage is an interesting statistic that estimates a team’s winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky, but it can also let you know whether a team managed by a particular manager consistently overachieves or underachieves.
Jimy Williams-managed teams have consistently underachieved. Williams has a career Pythagorean Differential of -24 (i.e., his teams have lost 24 more games than the statistics suggest they should have), with just one season in which his team exceeded expectations. Consequently, Williams just may prove Branch Rickey’s adage: “Sometimes luck is the residue of design.”
Although he appears to be a good coach of baseball skills, Williams just seems to make enough boneheaded managerial moves to make sure that his teams underachieve. Here are but a few examples:

His batting Berkman in the fifth and sixth hole for much of this season while he has been one of the best hitters in baseball;
His insistence on batting one of the worst hitters in baseball — Adam Everett — in the two hole and have him waste outs by laying down sacrifice bunts at every opportunity;
His decision to platoon poor hitting Geoff Blum with the hot-hitting Ensberg for much of the 2003 season, which may have in itself been enough to cost the Stros the game that they finished behind the Cubs in the NL Central; and
His strained relationship with Hidalgo, which may have ultimately cost the Stros a productive slugger over the next several seasons.

So, I cannot say that I am sorry to see Williams go. My sense is that he is overmatched as a big league manager.
On the other hand, although hiring Garner is a “feel good” P.R. move, it’s a dubious one from the standpoint of managerial competence. Although he managed teams for eleven seasons with generally bad players at both Milwaukee and Detroit, Garner only produced a won-loss record three times that was better than those clubs’ Pythagorean winning percentage. Moreover, Garner was a marginal hitter as a player, who rarely walked and thus, did not have as high an on-base percentage as he should have to compensate for his mediocre power. So, if Garner favors players like himself, we should expect a steady dose of Viz and Everett, which will only excerbate the Stros’ run scoring deficiencies.
The bottom line: It was time for Williams to go, but it’s not at all clear that Garner is an improvement other than he gets along with the media better than the irascible Williams. It’s becoming clearer by the day that the Stros’ plan of making a playoff run this season has failed, and that it’s time to clean house and begin bringing in younger players to surround Berkman and Oswalt.

WSJ on Mike Ramsey

This Wall Street Journal ($) article profiles Houston criminal defense attorney, Mike Ramsey, who is heading up the criminal defense team that is defending former Enron Chairman and CEO, Kenneth Lay. The article captures Mr. Ramsey’s homespun wit in the following passage:

Even if he doesn’t succeed in gaining a separate trial, the effort gives Mr. Ramsey the opportunity to showcase is readiness to quickly rebut the charges. He seems to particularly enjoy attacking the bank-fraud charges brought against Mr. Lay in connection with loans he took out between 1999 and 2001. Part of the loan-related criminal charges involves a federal banking rule known as Regulation U.
Mr. Ramsey asserts that the government is unfairly going after his client for an alleged violation of some obscure rule. Until the indictment, says Mr. Ramsey, “I thought Reg U was a tomato sauce.”

As noted on this blog before, Mr. Ramsey is a member of Houston’s remarkably talented criminal defense bar, which in many respects is the legacy of legendary Houston-based criminal defense lawyers, Racehorse Haynes and the late Percy Foreman. A couple of other members of this prominent group of Houston criminal defense lawyers — Dan Cogdell and Tom Hagemann — will be defending clients in the upcoming mid-August trial of the Enron-related case known as the Nigerian Barge case.
Other prominent members of Houston’s criminal defense bar include Dick DeGuerin, who along with Mr. Ramsey, obtained the remarkable acquittal of murder charges for Robert Durst, Dick’s brother, Mike DeGeurin (yes, the brothers spell their last name differently), Jack Zimmerman, Rusty Hardin, David Berg, Joel Androphy, Robert Scardino, Mike Hinton, and Robert Sussman. The expertise and talent of Houston’s criminal defense bar compares favorably with that of any criminal defense bar of any city in the country.

No oil boom in Houston

This NY Times article reports that the recent uptick in oil and gas prices has not translated into an economic boom for the local Houston economy. The article does a reasonably good job of explaining that Houston’s economy is less dependent on the oil and gas industry that in prior eras, and thus less prone to the boom and bust cycles that resulted from past run-ups in energy prices. Accordingly, while Houston’s economy used to be largely countercyclical to the national economy (i.e., Houston would do well during times of high energy prices that would drive the national economy down), Houston’s more diversified economy now tends to be more in step with the national economy.
Curiously, the Times reporter neglected to interview the foremost authority on the Houston economy, Dr. Barton Smith, University of Houston professor of economics and director of the UH Institute for Regional Forecasting. Twice a year or so, Dr. Smith gives an oral presentation over lunch to Houston businesspeople regarding the state of the Houston economy and his predictions for the economy’s future. These meetings provide valuable nuts and bolts information and analysis regarding Houston’s economy, and are extremely popular among Houston businesspeople. Not mentioned in the Times article is that Dr. Smith’s model of the Houston economy currently predicts an annualized rate of job growth of 2.6 % that, if sustained for the next six months, would translate into about 50,000 jobs. That would be the best job growth rate in Houston since 2000.

Two trials, two CEO’s

The Wall Street Journal’s ($) Holman Jenkins’ weekly column today addresses the different troubles facing former Enron Chairman and CEO Kenneth Lay and Pfizer’s CEO Hank McKinnell.
First, Mr. Jenkins examines the indictment against Mr. Lay and observes that it essentially charges him with the crime of making false public statements in carrying out his duty to save Enron. That duty to Enron’s shareholders, investors and creditors conflicted with Mr. Lay’s other duty to tell the truth to those same folks:

Much will depend on what he was told by Enron employees in the weeks between his return to the CEO’s job and Enron’s collapse a few weeks later. The famous Sherron Watkins memo and follow-up meeting may have put Mr. Lay in the proverbial double bind. He could have told employees and investors that Enron had many sound businesses but, alas, the accounting mess would likely provoke a crisis of confidence among lenders and trade partners, driving the company out of business for lack of credit to continue its day-to-day operations.
Saying as much, of course, would have precipitated the very implosion that it was Mr. Lay’s mission to prevent for the benefit of employees, creditors and investors. “Oh well,” he might have said, “I saw my duty and did it. I disclosed all the material facts that investors deserve to know, even if it means the stock will go to zero before they can act on it.”
Failing to do so is what he’s being prosecuted for now, in good part. The indictment dwells most heavily on his public statements of confidence in the company after he reclaimed the helm of a sinking ship. No, we wouldn’t even try to guess at a solution for this problem. In theory investors deserve the truth, even when it hurts. Please, can’t somebody in the economics department figure out a way to measure how many companies lied their way back to solvency, saving their shareholders a total loss?

The other trial that Mr. Jenkins addresses is a financial and political one, which Pfizer and other drug companies face in a marketplace that increasingly limits the ability of U.S. drug companies to generate profits and fund research and development on new drugs:

By decade’s end, the last major market where prescription drugs aren’t currently subjected to price controls — the giant U.S. market — will feel the touch of the visible hand. Perversely, the industry can thank George W. Bush. Whatever he intended with his Medicare reform, the government sooner or later will try to limit its pharmaceutical spending on seniors by dictating prices.
History is replete with industries with high fixed costs and low marginal costs that embraced government regulation, believing they could capture the regulatory process and assure themselves an acceptable rate of return. Some say the drug companies will manage the politics of price regulation too, making up on volume what they lose in dictated prices. Don’t bet the cat on it. That approach ended badly for the railroad and electric power industries, and both could at least demonstrate clearly for regulators the relation between capital going into the pipeline and services to the public coming out the other end. Drug investment, by contrast, is a speculative shot in the dark, unfit for any kind of regulatory review that we can think of.

Mr. McKinnell at least sounds like a man who believes this future can be avoided, pressing for the U.S. to challenge price controls in other countries so Americans aren’t stuck bearing the whole cost themselves of the industry’s massive R&D budgets.

Inasmuch as the Bush Adminstration lacks a coherent approach to reforming America’s health care finance system, count me as skeptical that this administration can develop a sensible plan to require other countries to fund a fair share of drug R&D costs.

Martha Stewart’s Sentencing

As readers of this blog know, I believe that the recent prosecution and conviction of Martha Stewart is an injustice.

The result of that injustice is equally disturbing.

As American Enterprise Institute scholar John R. Lott notes in this article, Ms. Stewart’s sentencing reflects a system that is so badly out of whack that it penalizes wealthy people far more than poorer people who commit the same offense:

Before the 1987 [sentencing] guideline, judges could sentence two criminals who’d committed the same crime to vastly different sentences: Ms. Stewart could have been let off with simple probation or given more than 10 years. But judges were rarely that arbitrary. In fact, denying judges discretion has made penalties less, not more, equal.

The reason is simple: the justice system imposes many types of penalties on criminals, but the sentencing guidelines only make sure that the prison sentences are equal. Beyond prison, criminals face financial penalties that largely depend on the criminal’s wealth. In addition to fines and restitution, white-collar criminals face the loss of business or professional licenses and the ability to serve as an executive or director for a publicly traded company.

Using Ms. Stewart’s case as an example, Mr. Lott notes that those extra penalties for the wealthy are substantial, such as Ms. Stewart’s responsibility for the losses that investors in her company suffered as a result of her conviction:

I cannot say it better than Mr. Lott’s conclusion:

It is hardly ever fashionable to defend the wealthy–let alone wealthy criminals. Yet the gap in punishment is so enormous it is impossible to ignore. If fairness means that two people who commit the same crime should expect the same penalty, the current system is not merely unfair, it is unconscionable.

Let’s make CEO negligence criminal

Enron’s excesses and the unprecedented media firestorm over the company’s collapse have muddled the reasoning of even normally clear thinking business columnists.
The latest to be afflicted is the Wall Street Journal’s ($) Alan Murray, who comes up with this doozy in his column today:

Mr. Lay spent more time schmoozing with politicians and picking fabric swatches for his Gulfstream V corporate jet than studying special-purpose enterprises. As a result, his footprints inside the energy company are shallow, and his fingerprints few. Conviction will be difficult.

In the case of Enron, we already know a giant financial fraud lay at the heart of the enterprise. The convictions of former Chief Financial Officer Andrew Fastow and former Treasurer Ben Glisan established that. At stake in the Lay case isn’t whether fraud was committed but whether the chief executive should be held [criminally] responsible.
For the sake of American capitalism, he should.

Mr. Murray then goes on to base this rather startling expansion of criminal liability on the anecdotal experience of Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan:

In unusually clear testimony in July 2002, Chairman Greenspan railed against the “infectious greed” that had invaded American business, arguing that the best antidote was strong and ethical CEOs. “It has been my experience on numerous corporate boards that CEOs who insist that their auditors render objective accounts get them,” Mr. Greenspan said, “and CEOs who discourage corner-cutting by subordinates are rarely exposed to it.”
“Although we may not be able to change the character of corporate officers,” he concluded, “we can change behavior through incentives and penalties.” That is what is at stake in the Lay case.

So, let’s see here. Mr. Murray reasons that, in the “special” case of a business executive, we should treat them like bank robbers in the criminal justice system even though the business executive did not intentionally commit a crime. If the CEO is simply lazy and negligent, then Mr. Murray reasons that she is intentionally neligent and lazy and, therefore, should have the same degree of criminal liability as the bank robber.
As one of my former professors used to say whenever confronted with such muddled reasoning: “Pooh-pah.”
First, using the criminal justice system to remedy the problem that Mr. Murray addresses is akin to using an ax where a scalpel is needed and available. Extending criminal laws that penalize intentional crimes to penalize lazy and negligent businesspeople has the primary effect of confusing and ultimately undermining society’s confidence in the rule of law. Indeed, such application of criminal laws may deter a few folks from becoming CEO’s in the first place (although there is no empirical data supporting such a proposition), but it will not deter laziness or negligence.
However, even more important is the slippery slope. If Mr. Lay should be convicted for being lazy and negligent, then why should Enron’s directors not also be convicted of the same crime? Or should they not be held criminally responsible for their laziness and negligence because they only flew commercial while Mr. Lay flew in the company’s Gulfstream V? Or because their stock options were considerably less than Mr. Lay’s? Or is it because they could not have reasonably known that Mr. Fastow was a crook while Mr. Lay should have?
Similarly, what does the system do with the CEO who is not lazy or negligent, but is truly undermined by crafty underlings who figure out a way to defraud the company despite the CEO’s diligence? Convict the CEO anyway? Or carve out an exception to the crime if the jury finds that the CEO is not lazy or negligent? And if that exception is crafted, can you imagine the procedures and systems that CEO’s would establish so that they would appear not to be lazy and negligent, particularly if they really were lazy and negligent? What webs Mr. Murray would have us weave!
Part of the cost of a free and productive economy is the risk of Enron-type failure. Misapplying criminal law neither will nor should deter such failures, and is much more likely to promote societal cynicism than responsible business practices. As Professor Ribstein notes in his post on Mr. Murray’s column, “we have the tools within our current system. Responding to Ken Lay’s irresponsibility with equivalent excesses in criminal prosecutions is not the answer.”
For a reasoned argument in favor of holding CEO’s responsible as a principal for corporate wrongdoing, see this Professor Bainbridge post, although Brad DeLong is not so sure.

Pitney Bowes battles America’s broken health care finance system

This Wall Street Journal ($) article provides an excellent analysis of what Pitney Bowes — the mailing service and equipment company — learned regarding the question of why health costs keep rising relentlessly in America: A dysfunctional market creates few incentives for any of its participants to deliver efficient care. In fact, competition among insurers, health-care providers and producers of drugs and equipment often led to higher, rather than lower, prices.
Although the Bush Administration continues to ignore the problem, the struggle by American businesses to rein in health-care costs is nearing crisis levels. American employers still pay the majority of health-care costs for more than 130 million Americans and have borne the brunt of double-digit annual increases in benefit costs. Companies as large as General Motors Corp. reports that it spends “significantly” more on health care than steel, and recent data suggests that health care costs to employers could rise as much as 10% next year. Even a big company with an entire team dedicated to rooting out the source of rising health-care costs has little power to change these dynamics.
Pitney-Bowes has an internal team that aggressively pursues ways to contain ballooning health costs. But such a solution is easier wished for then achieved:

Last year, [the Pitney-Bowes team] scored a small victory. Employees who went to a hospital in 2003 stayed for an average of 3.7 days, unchanged from a year earlier. The overall number of admissions didn’t rise, either.
So Pitney Bowes was startled to nonetheless discover that the average cost of each hospital visit jumped 9% to $10,600. The average cost per day jumped 17%. One of the biggest culprits? Increasingly powerful hospital groups in California, whose price increases pushed the company’s average cost of a hospital admission in that state to $20,500, twice what it paid elsewhere.
By combing through claims data from its 46,000 U.S. employees and their dependents, Pitney Bowes can pinpoint some of the big contributors to the nation’s surging health-care bill: Local hospital mergers; entrepreneurial doctors prescribing costly MRIs and CT-scans at their own private clinics; marketing for expensive drugs such as the heartburn medicine Nexium, which became Pitney Bowes’s third-highest drug expenditure last year after an advertising blitz by maker AstraZeneca PLC.

Indeed, despite the Pitney-Bowes team’s efforts, health care costs at the company continue to skyrocket:

. . . the total cost of claims Pitney Bowes paid directly — covering about 80% of its employees — rose 11.5%, more than it expected. About 20% of Pitney Bowes’s employees are covered by health-maintenance organizations, for which the company pays a simple premium. That brings the average increase in prices for the entire company down to 7.5%. Pitney Bowes also managed to reduce its overall costs by increasing employee contributions and winning discounts on certain drugs and services.
The Pitney Bowes team . . . has helped moderate the expansion in Pitney Bowes’s $135 million health-care budget. But despite its most vigilant efforts, Pitney Bowes’s health-care costs continue to climb faster than the rate of inflation and faster than increases in most other business expenses.

Read the entire article because it provides an excellent overview of the economic pressures that will continue to drive health care prices higher in America’s health care finance system that is predominated by private third party payors. As noted on this blog before, unless or until the payment of health costs are placed back in the hands of the consumer, these market anamolies that continually drive up costs and limit competition in certain sectors of health care administration will continue to proliferate. The failure of the Bush Adminstration and the Republican-controlled Congress to address this key issue in a meaningful fashion remains a glaring weakness that the Democrats can exploit in the upcoming Presidential election.

Another Baylor doctor defects to Methodist

Deep divisions in the Texas Medical Center resulted from the decision of Baylor College of Medicine to terminate its 50 year relationship with the Methodist Hospital earlier this year. One by-product of the split is that Baylor and Methodist began to compete with each other for medical talent (earlier posts here) that previously served both institutions.
This Chronicle story reports on Dr. Michael Lieberman‘s resignation yesterday as chairman of Baylor’s pathology department to become director of Methodist’s new research instititue. This move follows the earlier resignation of Methodist’s chief of surgery to remain with Baylor.
Dr. Lieberman is the first key defection from Baylor to Methodist in the battle between Methodist and Baylor to retain staff members. Before the Baylor-Methodist breakup, 19 of Methodist’s division chiefs were Baylor department chairs; now that number is down to 17 and almost certain to reduce further.
Dr. Lieberman was one of the doctors who co-signed a letter to Baylor trustees in April opposing the breakup because it could cause “a crisis of major proportions” and predicting that many faculty would “undoubtedly” stay at Methodist.
Expect more defections between these two fine institutions as the dust settles after this unfortunate divorce in a long-standing Medical Center relationship.

More decisions on Blakely

The decisions are coming down fast and furious from the various Circuits Courts of Appeal in regard to the recent Supreme Court Blakely decision, which was noted in these earlier posts. Professor Berman over at Sentencing Law and Policy is keeping up with it all. Check out the developments.
And, as usual, Professor Ribstein is insightful regarding the meaning of these developments on the sad case of Jamie Olis, in particular, and on politically-motivated Congressional initiatives to increase criminal penalties on business criminals, in general.

The political economy of child abuse

This NY Times article reports on the recent chapter 11 bankruptcy filing of the Archdiocese of Portland, which is the first archdiocese in the nation to file for bankruptcy protection because of the large sums that it owes as a result of sexual-abuse claims.
The bankruptcy filing raises an interesting legal issue: For purposes of federal bankruptcy law, are the assets of a Roman Catholic parish assets of the diocese or of the individual parishes? If all parish assets are counted as assets of the diocese, then the diocese’s assets would be valued at about half a billion, more than enough to pay the $25 million or so in pending sexual abuse claims. On the other hand, if the diocese’s assets do not include those of the individual parishes, then the diocese’s bankrupcy estate would be valued at a much more modest $50 million, which would make full payment of sexual abuse claims more problematic. The argument that the assets belong to parishes is based on church law that is much older than United States law. However, the only actual corporate entity is the diocese, which the bishop manages and represents.
University of San Diego Law Professor Thomas Smith — who runs a very good blawg called The Right Coast — observes that the diocese’s bankruptcy filing is the result of the “political economy of child abuse:”

This all relates to what you might call the political economy of child abuse. A principal reason why the Catholic Church is singled out as a hotbed of child abuse, when there is no good reason to think priests abuse children any more frequently than Protestant pastors, Mormon bishops or Communist summer camp commisars, is that the organization of the Church makes it a much more desirable target for plaintiffs’ lawyers. If each parish were a separate corporation, the course of this scandal would have run very differently. Mysteriously, shallow pockets are must less prone to the evils policed by lawyers.

My sense is that the bankruptcy courts will look for guidance from prior non-bankruptcy liquidations of parishes in addressing the legal issue that Professor Smith raises.