The Wall Street Journal ($) is doing a particularly good job in reporting on the polling pertaining to the upcoming Presidential election. This article reports on the WSJ’s latest data and analysis. The entire article is highly informative reading, and the following summarizes the WSJ’s analysis:

George W. Bush and John Kerry may be speaking to all of America, but their campaign advisers are focusing on a narrower slice of the population and targeting the candidates’ messages to voters in states that were decided by a narrow margin in 2000. These battleground states may tip the outcome again in November.
To take the pulse of voters in many of these key states, Zogby Interactive, a division of polling and research firm Zogby International, is conducting online polls twice a month through Election Day in 16 states selected by WSJ.com. Participation in the polls is controlled and the results are weighted, Zogby says, to make them representative of what a poll of the overall U.S. voting population would find.
Results of the first poll, conducted May 18-23, show Mr. Kerry leading in 12 of the 16 states in this poll, including five states that Mr. Bush won in 2000. Mr. Bush leads in four states, including one — Iowa — that voted Democratic in 2000. The 12 states in which Mr. Kerry leads have a total of 148 votes in the Electoral College, while the four in which Mr. Bush is ahead have 29 electoral votes.
Mr. Bush won eight of these 16 battlegrounds in his 2000 victory, but if the election were to be held tomorrow, it looks unlikely that the president would fare as well. But more than half of the states that Mr. Kerry leads fall within the polls’ margins of error. All of the states that Mr. Bush leads are within the margins of error.

In short, although the election is five months away, Mr. Bush is in trouble. However, Mr. Kerry is not a strong candidate and is having difficulty capitalizing on Mr. Bush’s problems. Looks like a close race is shaping up. Stay tuned.