When we last checked in on the Stros at the 7/10’s pole, the club had shown signs that it was going to climb back into legitimate contender status in the National League playoff race. Unfortunately, those signs of a playoff run were as illusory as Brad Ausmus’ swing and the Stros promptly turned in a 6-10 record in their eighth 1/10th segment of the season. In so doing, the Stros (61-68) effectively took themselves out of the race for a playoff spot.
As regular readers of this blog recognize, it’s not surprising that this Stros club is continuing to struggle. It has been a mediocre club almost all season, reflected by the team’s record in each of its 1/10th segments of the season (previous 10% segment summaries are here):
1. 11-5
2. 8-8
3. 6-10
4. 7-9
5. 7-10 (halfway mark)
6. 7-9
7. 9-7
8. 6-10
As noted in the each of the pre-season reviews of the club over the past three seasons (here, here and here), the Stros’ overall hitting has been declining steadily for six straight seasons and that lack of punch has finally caught up with the club. Superior pitching and playoff appearances over the past two seasons tended to camouflage the club’s abysmal hitting, but merely better-than-National League-average pitching this season has exposed the Stros’ imbalance — it is now a club with better-than-average pitching, one legitimate slugger, a few average or slightly-above average hitters, and a troubling number of regular players who are among the worst hitters in the National League.
The Stros hitting woes continued in the most recent 1/10th segment of the season as the club’s aggregate runs scored against average (“RCAA,” explained here) declined to -42, which is 13th among the 16 National League teams. While the pitching staff’s overall improvement during the second half of the season increased the staff’s runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) to 35 (4th in the NL) midway through this current segment, a couple of rocky starts by the back-end of the staff lowered the staff’s RSAA to 30, which is currently 5th among National League teams.

The club’s hitting and pitching statistics to date are set forth below, and pdf’s of the current hitting stats are here and the current pitching stats are here, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here:


Thank goodness for 1B/OF Lance Berkman (46 RCAA/.413 OBA/.609 SLG/1.022 OPS/35 HR’s), who is simply one of the best hitters in MLB and the only hitter separating the Stros from becoming as bad a hitting club as the Cubs or Pirates. Of the remaining Stros players, only 1B Mike Lamb (4/.353/.477/.830) 2B/OF Chris Burke 6/.361/.455/.816), 3B Morgan Ensberg (13/.395/.467/.862) and OF Luke Scott (20/.463/.620/1.083) have hit above National League-average this season, although mid-season acquisition 3B/OF Aubrey Huff (-1/.340/.477/.817) is also close.
On the surface, that would seem like a reasonable nucleus of above-average hitters to work with, but that is only true if the club is managed in a savvy manner, which this one is not. As noted several times on this blog (most recently here), Stros Manager Phil Garner is not a particularly good manager and his mishandling of the Stros’ best hitters this season is a case in point. Rarely does Garner ever play Berkman, Lamb, Burke, Scott, Ensberg, and Huff in the same lineup. Although a lineup with Berkman at 1B, Huff and Scott in the corner OF positions, Burke at CF or 2B, Lamb at 2B or 1B and Ensberg at 3B is not going to remind anyone of the Yankees lineup, it certainly has a better chance of generating runs than Garner’s typical lineup.
As has been the case all-season, SS Adam Everett (-25/.287/.343/.630), CF Taveras (-14/.334/.341/.675), C Ausmus (-31/.302/.288/.590; hit into 19 double-plays!) continue to be a huge drag on the Stros’ every day lineup. At least Stros management had the good sense to dispense with LF Preston “Double-Play” Wilson (-19/.309/.405/.714); hit into 18 double plays!), but now even future Hall-of-Famer Bidg is giving indications that he is finally washed up (-10/.318/.433/.751). Although Everett, Taveras, Ausmus and Biggio should rarely be in the same lineup, Garner has played them together in the lineup more often than not during this season.
By the way, as noted in this earlier post, don’t allow the largely meaningless Taveras 28-game hitting streak mislead you. Taveras is far below a National League-average hitter and, given his lack of plate discipline and power, I have my doubts that he will ever develop into even an average hitter, much less a good one. Although the media touts the hitting streak and Taveras’ .350 batting average (also one of baseball’s most misleading statistics) during the streak, the reality is that Taveras’ RCAA — the runs that he has created compared to what an average National League hitter would have generated using the same number of outs as Taveras — has actually decreased from -11 to -14 during his hitting streak.
Meanwhile, the pitching staff’s best pitchers continue to improve as Roy O (3.23 ERA/25 RSAA) and the Rocket (2.50 ERA/18 RSAA) remain two of the best starters in the National League, and Andy Pettitte (4.51 ERA/1 RSAA) continued his considerable improvement since the All-Star break. However, the loss of Brandon Backe (3.77 ERA/4 RSAA) to an elbow injury forced the Stros to call up AAA-sensation Jason Hirsch (12.75 ERA/-11 RSAA) and the brutal Wandy Rodriguez (5.51 ERA/-13 RSAA), so that has hurt the pitching staff’s overall RSAA. The bullpen continues to be steady, if not spectacular, with troubled closer Brad Lidge (5.34 ERA/-5 RSAA) being the only bullpen pitcher who is currently pitching at a below National League-average level. The current closer, Wheeler (2.68 ERA/12 RSAA), is doing just fine.
Inasmuch as the current flawed makeup of the Stros club has been developing over the past five seasons, it’s unfair to blame current Stros GM Tim Purpura — who has been on the job for less than two years — entirely for the situation. However, Purpura was an assistant GM with the club during the time that the club’s hitting needs have gone unaddressed and his moves this past off-season — signing the woeful Wilson and re-signing Ausmus along with mediocre pinch-hitter Orlando Palmeiro -8/.278/.289/.567) to over-priced, guaranteed two-year deals — do not inspire much confidence that he understands the Stros’ problem, much less the ability to fix it.
Nevertheless, the situation for the Stros is certainly not dire. The club will free up over $50 million (almost half the club’s current payroll) after this season as Bagwell, Pettitte and Clemens’ contracts end. Extending Oswalt’s contract before he reaches free agency after the 2007 season is a first priority, and Berkman, Ensberg, Lamb, Huff, Burke, Scott and even the much-maligned Jason Lane (-6/.336/.409/.745) constitute a decent — albeit not imposing — hitting nucleus. The weak-hitting Everett remains an extraordinary talent in the field and Taveras is still young enough that he could develop the plate discipline necessary for him to become at least an average National League hitter, which — with his above-average fielding skills — would make him a valuable MLB player. With money to spend and several good pitching prospects on the MLB roster and in the upper minor league pipeline, the Stros appear to be in a good position to pick up a couple of productive hitters in the upcoming off-season who could vault the club right back into playoff contention. Although the 2006 season has been a disappointment for a club that has had a winning record in the five previous seasons and 12 of 13 since 1993 while making the playoffs six times in the past ten seasons, the Stros remain a basically solid club that, with a few tweaks here and there, could make the Berkman-Oswalt era every bit as successful as the Biggio-Bagwell era has been.
After finishing their current weekend series against the Pirates, the Stros schedule down the stretch is actually quite interesting, as they play 16 home games through September 24 against the NL East champ Mets (76-51) and playoff contending teams such as the Cardinals (67-60), the Reds (67-62) and the Phillies (65-63). Look for the next review — which will take us to the 9/10’s pole of the season — on September 13.