“2005 World Series Preview.” Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it?
Well, the 2005 edition of the Fall Classic is shaping up be an interesting one. The Stros and the White Sox are two good, but certainly not great, clubs that are built around solid pitching staffs. The Stros (89-73) struggled to get into the playoffs, while the Sox (99-63) pretty much cruised for most of the season, only to falter during the final month before turning it on in the last two weeks to win their division. The Stros have run up a 7-3 playoff record while engaging in two pressure-packed series with the Braves and then the Cardinals, while the Sox are 7-1 in the playoffs after polishing off the defending World Series champion Red Sox and then the Yankee-killing Angels in surprisingly easy fashion. The Sox won 10 more games than the Stros during the regular season, but the Stros have the better record over the past four months and the hitting-challenged Stros actually hit better than the White Sox. Nevertheless, both clubs rely primarily on stellar pitching that is based upon some of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. Consequently, expect a low-scoring series involving tight, well-pitched games in which runs are precious and home runs decisive.

As we all know, the Stros hitters (final statistics here) are not a strong group. The Stros’ final runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) for the 2005 regular season ended up at a -26 (12th out of the 16 National League teams), which means that the Stros scored 26 fewer runs than an average National League team would have scored during the season. The Stros rely primarily on one very good hitter — switch-hitting Lance Berkman (35 RCAA/.411 OBA/.524 SLG/.935 OPS) — and another hitter who has had a great season overall Morgan Ensberg (39 RCAA/.388 OBA/.557 SLG/.945 OPS), although he has tailed off during the second half of the season. Jason Lane (6/.316/.499/.815), Mike Lamb (despite his generally horrible season) (-12/.284/.419/.703), and 40 year old freak-of-nature Craig Biggio (8/.325/.468/.793) can have their moments, but the remainder of the Stros’ hitters are an odd combination of young and old spray hitters, Ausmus and Burke‘s historic yaks in the Braves series notwithstanding.
Remarkably, the White Sox (final hitting statistics here) are an even weaker hitting team than the Stros. The Sox had a miserable -59 team RCAA, which was 10th among the 14 American League clubs and, of their regular players, only Paul Konerko (38/.375/.534/.909) and Jermaine Dye (7/.342/.438/.780) are above-average in terms of creating runs. In addition, the Sox ranked in the bottom five teams in the American League in batting average, on-base percentage, walks, and stolen base success rate. Thus, at least on paper, the matchup with the Stros’ pitching staff — fresh off mowing down two stronger offenses than the Sox can muster — cannot be a particularly inviting prospect for the ChiSox.
Although the hitting in this series is unlikely to remind anyone of the need for steroid testing, the pitching is another matter altogether. No team can match the Stros’ three frontline starters (Stros’ pitching stats here). The Stros pitching staff’s 97 team runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) was second among the 16 National League teams, and The Rocket and Andy Pettitte finished 1-2 in National League RSAA while National League Championship Series MVP Roy Oswalt finished seventh. That performance by the three primary Stros starters is one of the finest seasons by three starting pitchers on one staff in modern baseball history. With Lidge, Wheeler and Qualls all pitching well out of the bullpen, the Stros have the most formidable pitching staff of any club in the 2005 playoffs.
Nevertheless, the White Sox pitching staff overall (pitching statistics here) is even stronger than the Stros’ lights out staff. The Sox team RSAA of 159 was tops in the American League, and their four starters — RHP Jose Contreras (20 RSAA/3.61 ERA), LHP Mark Buehrle (38/3.12); RHP Jon Garland (24/3.50) and former Stros farmhand RHP Freddy Garcia (15/3.87) — are every bit as good as the Stros because of the dilution to the Stros’ starting four caused by the under-average Brandon Backe (-11/4.86).
Moreover, the Sox bullpen is equally as impressive. Bobby Jenks (8/2.75) is the most well-known, but Cliff Politte (19/2.00) may have been the most underrated reliever in MLB this season. Combined with Dustin Hermanson (16/2.04) and Neal Cotts (17/1.94), the top four White Sox relievers have a 55 RSAA this season, which is the third best total in MLB this season (behind only the Yankees and A’s) for a team’s top three relievers. Thus, the White Sox have four fresh, dominant relievers on which they can rely, something that the Stros did not face in either of their series against the Braves or the Cardinals.
Thus, don’t expect many runs or hitting extravaganzas in this World Series. This series is likely to be decided by small miscues, which are often unnoticeable over a long season, but are utterly unpredictable in a short series. Most of the games will likely be decided by one or two runs, and the premium on runs will make it difficult for either team to recover from small miscues in the field. Inasmuch as these two teams are remarkably similar — weak hitting, excellent run prevention, and a heavy reliance on right-handed pitchers and hitters — predicting a winner between them is a real shot in the dark. But as with the series against the Cardinals, I like the Stros chances in this one.
Just don’t expect it to go less than seven games, and do not start celebrating until the final out in the final inning is recorded in the official scorebook.