Income tax simplification is a recurring subject on this blog, so I took notice of this NY Times article regarding yesterday’s announcement that President Bush’s tax-overhaul panel had agreed to offer two alternatives to the present tax code — one alternative that essentially streamlines the current income tax and a second, bolder alternative that would replace it with a progressive tax on consumption. Although both proposals would do away with the deduction for state and local taxes, limit the current deduction for home-mortgage interest and tube the unpopular alternative minimum tax, the two plans differ in their approach to taxing business.
Both proposals will be included in the panel’s final November 1 report to the Treasury Department, and the report is expected to be the framework for legislative proposals regarding overhauling the tax code next year. The income tax that the panel approved in principle yesterday is based on the following basic framework:
Creating four income-tax brackets of 15%, 25%, 30% and 33%, which is below the current top rate of 35%;
Reducing the top corporate-tax rate to 32% from 35%, eliminating the corporate alternative minimum tax and eliminating the tax on profits from active businesses overseas so that firms could repatriate overseas profits tax-free;
Reducing the tax on capital gains to 25% of the ordinary income-tax rate, or a top rate of 8.25%, which is less than the current 15%;
Eliminating the tax on dividends;
Creating a new limit on health insurance provided tax-free by employers of about $11,000 for families, $5,000 for individuals;
Replacing the mortgage-interest deduction with a tax credit equal to 15% of mortgage interest paid, but limiting it to interest on mortgages between $172,000 and $312,000 depending on the geographic region;
Eliminating the “marriage penalty” by providing a family credit of $1,650 for singles and $3,300 for couples;
Simplifying tax breaks for savings; and
Reducing the Form 1040 tax return to 32 lines from 75.
The second, bolder alternative would fundamentally change the U.S. tax code toward an approach of taxing spending rather than income in an effort to encourage saving, investment and economic growth. For individuals, it would have two major exceptions from the other alternative — its four tax brackets would be 15%, 25%, 30% and 35%, and it would impose a flat 15% tax on dividends, capital gains and interest.
However, the second alternative would take a very different approach in tax policy toward business, although the top corporate rate would remain at 32%. Companies would be allowed to expense all capital spending in the first year (rather than of depreciating it over time), but businesses would no longer be allowed to deduct interest payments.
As the blogosphere digests these two proposals over the next several days, I will provide links to insightful expert analysis of the proposals.
“Creating a new limit on health insurance provided tax-free by employers of about $11,000 for families, $5,000 for individuals;”
Curious to see their thinking on this one, seeing as how better health benefits actually create more tax revenue by keeping more workers healthy and employed. Plus, what if one opts to not use company provided benefits? There goes their tax revenue.
The proposal to eliminate the interest deduction would have devastating effects on industries that are primarily financed with debt, namely real estate and mortgage lending.
On the mortgage lending side, borrowing long-term at, say, 5% and lending at 7% is a pretty good business, but if you can’t deduct interest payments you have negative cash flow after tax. Second, as mortgages aren’t depreciable property now they likely wouldn’t be expensible under the new regime, a double whammy. This would require a huge increase in the spread between cost of funds and mortgage rates, basically raising mortgage lending rates significantly.
As for real estate, in addition to higher interest rates this scheme would deal a severe blow to property value. Remember, under the current regime you may depreciate the purchase price and deduct interest. For a $100k property a 30 year loan would have about $200k in interest. Under the new regime you get a $100k deduction today, but have $200k in expenses you can’t deduct, a 2/3 reduction in tax deductions over the life of the loan.
If that weren’t enough, consider the result of having higher AGI: not only do your deductions go away, but the resulting higher AGI probably puts you in a higher bracket, another double whammy. I predict this tax scheme would be a huge tax increase on business, especially since the brackets haven’t been lowered to compensate for taking away deductions.