American ingenuity

cirrus_the-jet_first-flight_07It’s not all bad news out there on the business front.

Over this past holiday weekend, Cirrus Design Corporation successfully completed the first 45-minute flight of the company’s innovative "The-Jet" (H/T James Fallows), which is a five-plus-two seat aircraft that many in the aviation industry believe is destined to ignite a revolution in general aviation. Aimed at the market of owner-pilots, The-Jet is simple to fly and includes an efficient single-jet operation in an aircraft that is more flexible than larger and far more expensive aircraft. AVWeb has more pictures of The-Jet’s first flight here.

Ready to hail that air taxi yet?

Nice job, but what about that other case?

GrassoThis Wall Street Journal editorial pats itself on the back justifiably for swimming against the mainstream media tide in opposing from the outset former New York Attorney General Eliot’s Spitzer’s popular but dubious litigation and propaganda campaign against former New York Stock Exchange chief executive officer, Richard Grasso. The Spitzer-inspired case against Grasso fell apart earlier this week under the weight of multiple negative appellate decisions.

The Journal deserves much credit for standing up to Spitzer’s bullying tactics when few others in the mainstream media were willing to do so. But what does the Journal say about turning a relative blind eye toward this even worse prosecutorial abuse?

Public financing of a private boondoggle

GM Volt The WSJ’s Holman Jenkins splashes some cold water on the suggestion that General Motors’ Volt automobile will have much of a positive impact either environmentally or on GM’s bottom line:

At best, the Volt will be an affluent family’s third car. It will have to be plugged in for six hours a day – i.e., it will be a car for a suburbanite with a sizeable garage wired for power. It won’t be a car for a city dweller who parks on the street or in a public lot. It will travel 40 miles on a six-hour charge. After that, a small gas motor will kick in to recharge the battery while you drive. Some reports claim the Volt will get 50 mpg in this mode, but that’s hallucinatory: If using a gasoline engine to power an electric motor were so efficient, the streets would be full of such vehicles. (Our guess: The car will be lucky to get 15 mpg under gasoline power.)

Notice that, even today, some people continue to buy SUVs capable of hauling eight passengers, the dog and groceries, though they spend most of their time in the car driving alone. Customers value flexibility in their vehicles. For a car with the Volt’s narrow usability to sell would require an unlikely revolution in consumer behavior, especially if gasoline prices aren’t going to $10 a gallon.

So why is GM placing so much emphasis on development of an auto that is not particularly competitive in the marketplace? The answer: government financing:

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The Future of Law Firm Advertising?

Clear Lake-area plaintiff’s lawyers Ron and Scott Krist use the YouTube video below to explain why helicopter crash victims should hire their firm. Not exactly To Kill A Mockingbird, but pretty darn effective nonetheless. By the way, I wonder who the defense attorney was that Scott got fired?

Clear thinking to begin the week

 

The Obligation to Throw in the Towel

So, the shoe finally dropped on the two Bear Stearns executives who managed the two Bear hedge funds that imploded in mid-2007. A copy of the indictment is here.

As I read the indictment, the government is contending that Messrs. Cioffi and Tannin were required to disclose to investors immediately in February and March, 2007 that the two of them feared that the two funds might be “toast” even as Cioffi and other Bear executives were fighting market pessimism toward the funds and urging investors to maintain trust in their ultimate financial merit.

So, with their careers riding on whether the funds would survive, Cioffi and Tannin were supposed to throw in the towel and light a match to the funds by disclosing to the market their concerns about the heightened risk of a meltdown.

Stated simply, according to the Feds, about the time you think your trust-based business might be toast, it’s already too late. Inasmuch as you are required to disclose to the markets that you think the business might be toast, that disclosure will understandably prompt the market to lose trust in your business, which means that your company is kaput.

Thus, the smart thing to do is never to voice (and sure as heck don’t write any emails!) your concern to anyone regarding the downside risk of your business. That lack of communication might dampen internal company analysis regarding risk of loss, but what the hell — at least you won’t get indicted for misleading investors when your company fails.

Just another chapter in the twisted policy implications that result from regulating business through criminalizing businesspeople’s risk-taking. Larry Ribstein has typically insightful observations along the same lines, while Bess Levin muses over the Feds’ suggestion that investors didn’t know exactly what they were buying when investing in Bear’s funds.

Futures trading 101

futures graph As noted many times over the years on this blog (recently here and here), the instinct of most politicians and much of the mainstream media is to embrace simple "villain and victim" morality plays when attempting to explain investment loss. The more nuanced story about the financial decisions that underlie the failed investment strategy doesn’t garner enough votes or sell enough newspapers to generate much interest from the pols or muckrakers. That’s why we are currently enduring demagoguery regarding speculators and why it’s so important that citizens who are not familiar with the function of speculation in markets take a moment to read  Mark Perry’s primer on the economics of future trading:

In fact, speculators don’t determine market forces, they respond to market forces of supply and demand.

Therefore, speculators can’t be blamed for high oil prices, because high oil prices are ultimately caused by factors beyond the control of any speculator: rising global demand in places like India and China, and global supply in places like Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Venezuela. No individual speculator, or any group of speculators has an iota of influence over the demand for gas or oil in Brazil, nor do they have one iota of influence over the amount of oil in Canada or ANWR, or any control over OPEC quotas. Think about it – Exxon Mobil, one of the largest oil producers and private oil companies in the world, has NO control over the world spot price of oil, so how could a small group of speculators?

Read the entire post. Part II is here and an additional post on the same topic is here.

Criminalizing Failure

play_risk As Larry Ribstein reports, the Enron prosecutorial veterans are already picking up the usual suspects in regard to the Bear Stearns meltdown.

Meanwhile, John Carney wonders whether any investors really feel safer as a result of these criminal probes?

And although Bear struck out, do we really want to deter potentially beneficial risk-taking by criminalizing it when it fails?

Finally, wouldn’t it make more sense to allocate the resources spent on criminalizing such risk-taking toward educating investors in trust-based businesses on how to hedge their risk of loss?

Bill King’s Story

As Republican presidential nominee John McCain is doing his best to stoke public prejudice against job-creators and wealth builders, longtime Houston lawyer and businessman Bill King is promoting his new book, Saving Face (Somerset 2008), which is King’s personal history of the savings & loan crisis of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s.

Ironically, McCain knows quite a bit about the back story to King’s book.

McCain was one of the Keating Five, the Congressional supporters of former Lincoln Savings & Loan chairman and CEO Charles Keating, who was convicted of various corporate fraud crimes and served four years in prison as a result of highly-stoked but substantively-thin prosecutions that were ultimately overturned on appeal.

Keating eventually pled guilty to a single count of bankruptcy fraud to limit further prison time and insulate a family member from prosecution. For a thorough review of the mendacity of the Keating prosecutions, pick up a copy of Dan Fischel‘s book, Payback: The Conspiracy to Destroy Michael Milken and his Financial Revolution (HarperCollins 1995).

King’s story is the Houston version of Keating’s and a precursor of the prosecutorial abuse that the post-Enron criminal prosecutions in Houston generated a decade later.

Not only does King do an excellent job of explaining the financial, economic, regulatory and political underpinnings of the S&L crisis, he explores how the government wielded its prosecutorial power indiscriminately to serve up scapegoats to a salivating mainstream media and an ill-informed public.

King is thinking about running for Houston mayor in 2009 and, based on the depth and perspective that he exhibits in Saving Face, King would probably be a fine mayor. The following is King’s overview of Saving Face, which I recommend highly:

These days I find myself cringing when I hear media accounts that fraudulent and greedy mortgage brokers are responsible for all of the woes of the current housing bubble and the sub-prime defaults. I do so because the recriminations are an all too familiar echo of an earlier debacle. One to which I had a ring-side seat.

Many of you who have known me for some years know that shortly after law school I made the somewhat less-than-fortuitous career decision of joining a law firm that specialized in representing savings and loans.

At the time it did not seem like a bad decision. The Houston real estate market was enjoying an unprecedented boom and the savings and loan industry had just been deregulated. Investors were clamoring to get into the business.Within a few years of joining the law firm, I began investing in savings and loans and related businesses.

By 1986, notwithstanding that I had started with barely two nickels to rub together after working my way through law school, I had built a small, but respectable, business empire consisting of savings and loan holdings, title companies, and real estate investments.

However, within a couple of years, everything I had built evaporated into thin air.The Houston market collapsed when the price of oil fell from over $34 per barrel in 1984 to $9 the next year. It did not recover to above $20 until 2002.

Manufacturing jobs in the region fell by nearly 50% and for the first time in history Texans’ personal income declined. Bankruptcies in Houston tripled between 1983 and 1987. All but one of Texas’ major banking holding companies failed. Harris County’s population actually declined from 1985 to 1989. It was the first and only time in Houston’s history that it has lost population.

If you did not live through these times, the magnitude of melt down is hard to imagine.It is certainly difficult to lose everything that you have worked for, but the environment that existed in the late 1980s and early 1990s had an even more ominous aspect.

As the public became increasingly aware that the savings and loan crisis was going to take a major taxpayer bailout, there were ever more strident cries to hold someone responsible.

The complexity of confluence of interest rates, regulatory policy, oil prices, the Tax Reform Act of 1986, and the collapse of large portions of the real estate market that actually explained the collapse was too great to be reduced to sound bites. Politicians and bureaucrats began pointing the finger at those in the industry, and soon, the “S&L crook” was born.

And there were enough egregious cases for the politicians and bureaucrats to hold up as “proof” of their argument that the “S&L crooks” caused the crisis. The proposition that fraud and insider abuse had sunk the savings and loan industry was eventually discredited.

In 1993, a National Commission concluded that fraud had caused less than 15% of the total problem. But in the heat of the moment, there was little interest in cool, scholarly reflection on the problems of the industry.

As the 1980s came to a close I watched as many friends, associates and former clients in the S&L industry were swept up in a maelstrom of civil and criminal litigation. Naively, it never occurred to me that I might be caught up in such a dispute as well. But I was.

Eventually, I prevailed in my battle with the regulators, but as you might imagine, it was an experience that left an indelible mark and from which it took me many years to recover.

For some time I have been jotting down notes for a book about these experiences. For a couple of reasons, I recently decided to finalize such a book.

First, as many of you know, I am considering a candidacy for mayor of Houston in 2009. We all know too well that “negative campaigning” has become the standard today. Certainly going bankrupt in the savings and loan business will provide potential opponents ready ammunition. So first and foremost, I want to put the issue squarely on the table.

If I decide to become a candidate, there will undoubtedly be some voters who will be troubled by these experiences. Some will believe difficult times such as the ones I went through are a crucible that better prepares a person for leadership. Most, I expect, will simply want to be advised of the facts so that they can be weighed with other issues bearing on their decision.

But beyond the potential political implications, the troubling similarities between what I saw in the S&L collapse of the 1980s and the sub-prime crisis playing out before us now demands some consideration.

It is a well worn adage, but nonetheless true, that if we do not learn from our history, we are doomed to repeat our mistakes. Perhaps relating what I saw during the saving and loan industry collapse will provide some perspective on the current financial crises.

So for these reasons I have written Saving Face: An Alternative and Personal Account of the Savings and Loan Debacle. I have attempted in the book to tell the story of what I experienced during these times, but at the same time, to place my experiences in a larger, national context. I believe my story has some relevance to anyone experiencing trying times generally, and certainly to those in the Houston real estate industry, many of whom lived through these times as I did.

Cool Graph Friday

New Picture (1)

H/T Craig Depken

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Picture (2)

H/T W$J/Josee Valcourt

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Life Expectancy chart

H/T Russell Roberts

 

 

 

 

 

Gas Price Map June 08H/T James Hamilton