The Myth of Superiority

goodandbad Clear Thinkers favorite Peter Gordon is a very astute fellow:

David Brooks wrote about The Genteel Nation and “gentility shift” last Friday. He was addressing long-term labor market problems that have nothing to do with aggregate demand or any lack of “stimulus,” but rather with the tastes of young people making career choices. He cited the example of Michelle Obama, telling an audience of young women, “Don’t go into corporate America … become teachers. Work for the community. Be social workers. Be a nurse … Make that choice, as we did, to move out of the money-making industry into the helping industry.”

It’s an old theme and many people think of the choices before them as between being self-serving and "helping people". I am not sure what sacrifices the First Lady has had to make in her personal life in order to get on the high road, but given a platform, we hold forth — and also tell ourselves all sorts of stories about ourselves. There is always the lovely conceit that some of us are all about "helping people" and, thereby, so much better than the rest.

Labor markets provide their own signals (in terms of compensation packages as well as employment and unemployment prospects), but the problem with rhetoric such as the First Lady’s in the Brooks cite is that it nourishes the idea that we see repeated on so often that our own pay is “unfair” in light of the job’s assumed social worth.

Many public sector unions have managed to extract promises from their politician employers that these employers cannot keep. There is naturally unhappiness and resentment, but not at the employers. Rather, at the “stingy” taxpayers who just don’t get it: those who have chosen to “help people” simply “deserve” more.

Labor markets signal facts of life that challenge the “gentility” view of the world. But the gentility view fortifies the idea that market signals are "unfair" and further politicization is the way. This is the way we get street demonstrations such as the ones we saw in Paris last week. We’ll always have the barricades.

This dynamic is the other side of the coin from what leads us to ostracize famous people such as Ken Lay, Tiger Woods and Roger Clemens. We try in any way to avoid confronting our innate vulnerability, so we use myths to distract us. We rationalize that a wealthy and powerful person did bad things that we would never do if placed in the same position even though we really have no idea how we would react to such incentives. As a result, we scorn and ridicule the rich and powerful as we attempt to purge collectively that which is too shameful for us to confront individually.

Be wary of those who justify their world view on the supposed moral superiority of their cause versus how markets would reward that effort. As Gordon notes, this view assumes that market signals are unfair and that political corrections are the answer. The mob is never wrong in the moment of its action.

Ringing the Bell

cadillac report I enjoyed the first big weekend of college and NFL football as much as anyone, but the probable concussion that star University of Houston QB Case Keenum suffered in the Cougars’ Friday night romp over UTEP reminded me of this Skip Rozin/Wall Street Journal article from awhile back:

Protecting football players from serious head injuries is making news again. Accused for years by outside critics and even Congress of dismissing the danger of concussions, the National Football League has finally installed measures to safeguard players during games and, when they are injured, to treat them more effectively.

The latest effort, a locker-room poster being sent to all NFL teams this month, alerts players to signs of concussion-such as nausea, dizziness and double vision-and urges anyone exhibiting these symptoms to be examined by a doctor. The initiative is supported by both the NFL and the players union.

The message embraces caution in what, for players, is a high-risk environment. Football is a collision sport. At the professional level, collisions occur between the biggest and fastest players and can wreak havoc. A vivid reminder of this came last week when safety Jack Tatum, nicknamed "The Assassin," was back in the news. Tatum, who passed away July 27, made a devastating hit on Darryl Stingley during a 1978 preseason game. The hit turned Stingley into a quadriplegic; no penalty was assessed.

One new rule enacted last season penalizes hits against defenseless players such as quarterbacks and wide receivers. In December, the league banned players who show symptoms of a concussion from returning to play or practice on the same day; they must also be cleared by the team physician and an independent neurologist. The biggest change came this March when the NFL replaced the doctors leading its brain- injury committee-who discredited mounting evidence linking concussions to serious brain damage-with doctors alarmed by the danger.

Welcome changes all, yet the glorification of violence remains a well-entrenched part of football.

In watching a weekend of hard-hitting football, I suspect that there are many more concussions resulting from the games than we even know about from evident injuries such as Keenum’s. As I’ve noted many times in regard to the misdirected governmental criminalization of performance-enhancing drug use, we have promoted a culture that encourages players to take these enormous health risks, but demonize them when they attempt to hedge the risk of the injuries that almost always result from engaging in such high-risk endeavors. What happens to the game of football when players start requiring the owners of that risk to compensate them for their injuries?

My sense is that the games that we watched over this past weekend may be played in a substantially different way in the not- to-distant future.

 

You’ve got to be kidding me

housing-bubble No, really. Get a load of this:

The unexpectedly deep plunge in home sales this summer is likely to force the Obama administration to choose between future homeowners and current ones, a predicament officials had been eager to avoid.

Over the last 18 months, the administration has rolled out just about every program it could think of to prop up the ailing housing market, using tax credits, mortgage modification programs, low interest rates, government-backed loans and other assistance intended to keep values up and delinquent borrowers out of foreclosure. The goal was to stabilize the market until a resurgent economy created new households that demanded places to live.

As the economy again sputters and potential buyers flee – July housing sales sank 26 percent from July 2009 – there is a growing sense of exhaustion with government intervention. Some economists and analysts are now urging a dose of shock therapy that would greatly shift the benefits to future homeowners: Let the housing market crash.

When prices are lower, these experts argue, buyers will pour in, creating the elusive stability the government has spent billions upon billions trying to achieve.

As regular readers of this blog know, the notion that housing markets need to allocate risk of loss before those markets can stabilize and recover is not rocket science.

In fact, the government’s dithering over the past two years in propping up these inflated housing markets has actually made the situation worse because it has postponed the transfer of misallocated resources in the housing markets to other markets.

Another day, another failed bailout. So it goes.

Retiring thoughts

Retirement- Clear Thinkers favorite Arnold Kling has had some insightful thoughts lately (see also here) about the economics of retirement lately:

[Megan McArdle’s] main point is that if you live about 90 years and spend the last 30 of them not working, it is hard to maintain your standard of living no matter who pays for it. There is a lot of optimism about stock market returns built into state pension funds, individual retirement plans, and–I would say–even Social Security and Medicare. My argument is that without strong stock market returns, general tax revenues are not going to be robust, and Social Security and Medicare will go broke really soon without robust general tax revenues. [. . .]

For any given level of output, more consumption by one group (say, people over 65) is going to reduce what can be consumed by everyone else. As the ratio of people over 65 to everyone else goes up, this increases the ratio of state-confiscated income to total income required to keep Social Security and Medicare going. [To some] this higher confiscation rate represents a kinder and gentler society. But it may not feel kind and gentle to those who earn incomes and have them confiscated.

Kling’s thoughts resonate when reading this WSJ article on teacher’s pensions:

When it comes to shaking up the status quo, however, the most potent education reform may be the one that’s too often considered a side issue: pension reform.

That’s right, pension reform. Over the past 25 years, the private sector has moved from having four of five workers in a defined-benefit pension to having just one of five workers in such a plan. Mostly this means a shift to 401(k)s and the like, where payouts are related to what employees pay in.

Like most government employees, teachers have not made this shift. Their unions fight bitterly to retain the defined benefit plans underwritten by taxpayers. While these plans allow some lucky folks to retire in their 50s with a generous payout, they also feature perverse incentives that punish the young (more on this below) and encourage people to hang on for dear life even when they’d much rather leave. [.  .  .]

"A retired teacher paid $62,000 towards her pension and nothing, yes nothing, for full family medical, dental and vision coverage over her entire career," said [Governor Chris Christie]. "What will we pay her? $1.4 million in pension benefits and another $215,000 in health-care benefit premiums over her lifetime. Is it ‘fair’ for all of us and our children to have to pay for this excess?"

The article goes on to point out that the unintended consequence of these subsidized pensions is that – similar to the dynamic of employer-based health care policies – employees lose the incentive to pursue different and potentially more fulfilling careers because of fear that they will lose their non-portable benefits if they change jobs.

Does it really make sense to reward employees who simply wait out the system for the pot at the end of the rainbow that the rest of us cannot afford to provide?

Preparing for Life

john-grisham I’ve never been a fan of John Grisham’s novels, although I concede that a couple of them have been made into entertaining movies.

But after reading this Grisham/NY Times op-ed, I’m a big fan of John Grisham:

I WASN’T always a lawyer or a novelist, and I’ve had my share of hard, dead-end jobs. I earned my first steady paycheck watering rose bushes at a nursery for a dollar an hour. I was in my early teens, but the man who owned the nursery saw potential, and he promoted me to his fence crew. For $1.50 an hour, I labored like a grown man as we laid mile after mile of chain-link fence. There was no future in this, and I shall never mention it again in writing.

Then, during the summer of my 16th year, I found a job with a plumbing contractor. I crawled under houses, into the cramped darkness, with a shovel, to somehow find the buried pipes, to dig until I found the problem, then crawl back out and report what I had found. I vowed to get a desk job. I’ve never drawn inspiration from that miserable work, and I shall never mention it again in writing, either.

But a desk wasn’t in my immediate future. My father worked with heavy construction equipment, and through a friend of a friend of his, I got a job the next summer on a highway asphalt crew. This was July, when Mississippi is like a sauna. Add another 100 degrees for the fresh asphalt. I got a break when the operator of a Caterpillar bulldozer was fired; shown the finer points of handling this rather large machine, I contemplated a future in the cab, tons of growling machinery at my command, with the power to plow over anything. Then the operator was back, sober, repentant. I returned to the asphalt crew.

I was 17 years old that summer, and I learned a lot, most of which cannot be repeated in polite company. One Friday night I accompanied my new friends on the asphalt crew to a honky-tonk to celebrate the end of a hard week. When a fight broke out and I heard gunfire, I ran to the restroom, locked the door and crawled out a window. I stayed in the woods for an hour while the police hauled away rednecks. As I hitchhiked home, I realized I was not cut out for construction and got serious about college.

Many of us had similar experiences to Grisham’s before finding our life’s work. In talking with young folks these days about their uncertain futures, I find myself often advising them that uncertainty is, for most of us, an unavoidable part of life. Although often difficult at the time, those experiences help define our character and spirit.

I decided to go to law school while working on a loading dock on Produce Row in Houston. I’m eternally grateful for that loading dock. What was your loading dock?

Health care finance myths die hard

webdoctorfee In the face of undeniable proof that the concierge medical practice model, particularly when combined with the use of Health Saving Accounts, is an innovative market force that is addressing finance problems for a substantial portion of the health care market, this New York Times grudgingly acknowledges that concierge medicine may be a viable way to control health care costs at least for a substantial portion of health care consumers.

But on the other hand, the Times doesn’t want you to forget that HSA’s don’t work for everybody:

Critics have been less enthusiastic about H.S.A.’s, worrying that high-deductible plans work only for young, relatively healthy people who do not spend a lot on health care anyway. When sick people are faced with paying high out-of-pocket costs for medical bills, they simply go without the care they need, experts note.

As Arnold Kling has observed, why does the Times think that that we cannot possibly afford health care if we have to pay for it individually, but we can afford it if we pay for it collectively?

 

McMurtry’s Hollywood

McMurtry's Hollywood One of the wonderful things about owning a Kindle is that it is easy to download and read a book that you might have put off for awhile until the stack of books on the nightstand receded a bit.

One such book is Larry McMurtry‘s latest, Hollywood: A Third Memoir (Simon & Schuster 2010). McMurtry has been writing screenplays for Hollywood now for the better part of 50 years, so he has a wealth of anecdotes to pass along about the movie industry.

And somewhat surprisingly, McMurtry passes along keen insight into the business of how movies are conceived, made and sometimes not made.

For example, after the success of the 1971 film Last Picture Show, which was based on McMurtry’s novel of the same name, McMurtry observed the following about the Academy Award-winning stars of that movie, Cloris Leachman and Ben Johnson:

Ironically, but not surprisingly, when Ben Johnson and Cloris Leachman won Oscars for their performances, they decided that, by God, they were stars, and acted like stars from then on.

The first thing they did, as stars in their own heads, was price themselves out of the market, which, Oscars or not, assessed them rather more modestly than they assessed themselves.

Refreshingly, despite his obvious affection for Tinseltown, McMurtry candidly admits that he was drawn to it by the money. As he observes:

Money trumped talent, and, in the movie business, that is usually the case.

He even learned how to be a cost-effective screenwriter:

[T]he fact that I came from a generation of cattlemen gave me a slight edge – I learned not to have scenes in my Westerns that would be prohibitively expensive.

One way to achieve that was to reduce the number of animals to the lowest possible figure. Animals are well protected on movie sets, and are very expensive to use. I think they used three sets of the famous pigs in Lonesome Dove, pigs who in the narrative walk all the way from Texas to Montana only to get eaten.

Finally, on the age-old issue of whether a movie is art or a profit center:

[B]ut any thinking based on the conviction that one movie is art and another not is purely speculative. Only time will answer that question.

If you enjoy good writing, insightful observations and Hollywood, then pick up Hollywood: A Third Memoir. You will not be disappointed.

The Commerce Clause — A conduit for state power

The pro sports bubble

bubble1.jpgSo, to the surprise of absolutely no one who follows such things, Moody’s Investors Service lowered the ratings of the already junk bond debt of about a billion dollars that the Harris County-Houston Sports Authority issued to finance construction of Reliant Stadium, MinuteMaid Park and Toyota Center:

Moody’s believes the liquidity reserves are sufficient to cover the November 2010 payment, but their depletion may result in a payment default from pledged revenues as early as March of 2011, the report said.

If hotel occupancy tax and motor vehicle rental tax revenue continues to decline through 2010, the ratings could face further pressure, Moody’s said. Revenue from those taxes to the Sports Authority dipped by 11.7 percent in 2009 and are continuing that trend in 2010.

Of course, the romantics among us think it would be peachy to borrow even more money and resurrect the Astrodome into another kind of white elephant. This despite the fact that the markets has been telling us for over a decade now that there is no profitable purpose for it.

Meanwhile, most professional sports franchises are not doing all that well these days even with local governments providing these huge public subsidies

So, highly-leveraged debt, a high-priced product, increasingly unprofitable operations, and intense competition from a myriad of different (and substantially cheaper) forms of entertainment.

Does anyone else think that this pro sports bubble is about to burst?

Inside Job