An eternal optimist

ray_kurzweil_01 Don’t tell Ray Kurzweil that we ought to be all gloomy about the prospects for mankind. This WaPo op-ed reflects that he is downright bullish:

MIT was so advanced in 1965 (the year I entered as a freshman) that it actually had a computer. Housed in its own building, it cost $11 million (in today’s dollars) and was shared by all students and faculty. Four decades later, the computer in your cellphone is a million times smaller, a million times less expensive and a thousand times more powerful. That’s a billion-fold increase in the amount of computation you can buy per dollar.

Yet as powerful as information technology is today, we will make another billion-fold increase in capability (for the same cost) over the next 25 years. That’s because information technology builds on itself — we are continually using the latest tools to create the next so they grow in capability at an exponential rate. This doesn’t just mean snazzier cellphones. It means that change will rock every aspect of our world. The exponential growth in computing speed will unlock a solution to global warming, unmask the secret to longer life and solve myriad other worldly conundrums. [.  .  .]

Take energy. Today, 70 percent of it comes from fossil fuels, a 19th-century technology. But if we could capture just one ten-thousandth of the sunlight that falls on Earth, we could meet 100 percent of the world’s energy needs using this renewable and environmentally friendly source. We can’t do that now because solar panels rely on old technology, making them expensive, inefficient, heavy and hard to install. But a new generation of panels based on nanotechnology (which manipulates matter at the level of molecules) is starting to overcome these obstacles. The tipping point at which energy from solar panels will actually be less expensive than fossil fuels is only a few years away. The power we are generating from solar is doubling every two years; at that rate, it will be able to meet all our energy needs within 20 years.

I just thought I’d toss in that third paragraph for those in the oil and gas industry that believe that a period like the mid-to-late 1980’s can’t happen again. Meanwhile, light, sweet crude oil futures for May delivery settled yesterday at $111.76, a new record, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Hope for a hog solution?

feral%20hog%20022108.JPGTexas’ feral hog problem has stymied many a smart scientist over the years, but it appears that the Aggies may have discovered a possible solution(H/T: Craig Malisow)

If you’re a land owner and animals such as coyotes or wild pigs are driving you hog wild, help may soon be on the way to control their numbers in a humane way – in the form of a birth control pill for animals being developed at Texas A and M University’s College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences. The concept would be to get it to wild animals through baited food, researchers say. [. . .]
n Texas, feral hogs have become a severe nuisance to farmers and ranchers, and the state has an estimated 3-4 million feral hogs, by far the most in the country.

Gig’em Ags!

One way to drug test

Tiger%20Woods%20092807.jpgSteve Elling reports on European Tour Director George O’Grady’s idea on an effective and low-cost drug-testing procedure for the PGA and European Tours:

O’Grady estimated that drug tests will cost $1,000 per player, which makes the possibility of testing an entire European Tour field all but impossible. The PGA Tour will have that luxury, conversely, if it elects to head in that direction. Many of the particulars on testing and penalties are still in flux and financials will doubtlessly play a huge role in how much urinalysis is done on the various worldwide circuits.
“So it’s not so simple as pissing into a pot and moving on,” O’Grady said. “We cannot write off a million pounds. We don’t have that kind of money.” [. . .]
Prodded by a reporter, O’Grady also unleashed a half-serious zinger with regard to the drug testing program, which is being initiated as much to protect the sport’s reputation as it is to catch what’s assumed to be a tiny handful of cheaters, if any.
Just test Tiger Woods and be done with it.
“From what I understand, he would be the first in line to volunteer for testing,” O’Grady said. “If Tiger Woods’ test comes back negative, what does it matter what the rest of them are on?

Come to think of it, he’s got a point.

Thinking about global climate change

climate2.jpgAndrew Dessler is an associate professor in the Texas A&M University Department of Atmospheric Sciences. A couple of months ago, I came across his interesting new blog that focuses on the science and politics of climate change. In this Chronicle article, the Chronicle’s science reporter, Eric Berger, interviews Professor Dessler, who makes the following common sense observation about the climate change debate:

[T]here are a lot of really legitimate uncertainties [about global climate change] that people don’t seem to argue about. It’s a little bit disappointing that people are still arguing over whether the Earth is round or not. Whether humans are causing the increase in CO2 is really like arguing whether the Earth is round. We know it is. There’s no question. We’ve got lots of evidence. The debate isn’t really where it should be at this point: We need to view climate change as a risk. It’s a somewhat uncertain risk, but it’s a risk nonetheless. The question really becomes, as a policy, how do we address this risk?

Eric has a podcast of his entire interview with Professor Dessler over at his SciGuy blog.

New Chron blog reports on medical research funds

medical research.jpgThe Houston Chronicle has added another blog — Eric Berger’s SciGuy — to its impressive and expanding Chronicle bloglist that Chronicle tech writer Dwight Silverman has spearheaded. Kudos to Dwight and the Chronicle editors for being pioneers in this emerging method of delivering their product to customers.
In this post, Mr. Berger notes the National Institutes of Health annual ranking of U.S. medical schools by the amount of research funding, which is a key indicator of a medical school faculty’s research capabilities. Here is a listing of medical schools of local interest:
1. John Hopkins University, Baltimore, Md., $449 million
11. Baylor College of Medicine, $248 million
21. UT Southwestern Med. Center, Dallas, $172 million
35. Cornell Univ. Medical School (Methodist Hospital) $124 million
39. UT Medical Branch at Galveston, $104 million
48. UT Health Science Center at San Antonio, $80 million
64. UT Health Science Center at Houston, $51 million
In addition, although not a medical school, UT’s M.D. Anderson Cancer Center in the Texas Medical Center generated another $145 million in research last year. Consequently, as Mr. Berger notes, the institutions in the Texas Medical Center pump almost half a billion of research funds into the local economy.
By the way, the NIH list dovetails nicely with the ranking of university endowments that was noted in this earlier post. Given the size of Baylor Medical School’s endowment and annual research funding, one has to respect the risk that Baylor took in ending its longtime partnership with the even better-endowed Methodist Hospital ($2.3 billion endowment). Hopefully, the competition between the two institutions for research funds will enhance the amount and quality of research being performed at the Texas Medical Center.

NASA shakeup continues

NASA3.jpgAs noted in this earlier post, new NASA chief administrator Michael D. Griffin is shaking things up at the space agency. This Washington Post article reports on Mr. Griffin’s latest moves, which include the building of a less political and more scientifically-oriented management team to implement the initiative to return humans to the moon by 2020 and eventually send them to Mars. One particularly interesting part of the article is the following:

“[Mr. Griffin] wanted to be NASA administrator for a long time and has given a lot of thought to what has been done well or badly,” one congressional source said. “Because of that, he is not going to take a year or two to get to know the organization.”
Instead, the sources said, he expressed dismay that NASA over the past several years had put a lot of people in top management positions because of what one source described as “political connections or bureaucratic gamesmanship — not merit.”
Several sources spoke of a corps of younger scientists and engineers, including Griffin, who had been groomed in the 1970s and 1980s as NASA’s next generation of leaders only to be shoved aside during the past 15 years. They said Griffin hopes to bring them back.
“The people around him will be quite outstanding,” one source said. “The philosophy is that good people attract outstanding people. This is going to be a very high-intensity environment, and NASA needs experienced, outstanding people.”

New NASA chief is shaking things up

NASA_logo.gifThis Washington Post article reports on new NASA Administrator Michael D. Griffin‘s ambitious plan to shave four years off the timetable for building a next-generation spaceship to replace the obsolescent space shuttle. Dr. Griffin’s accelerated plan is to launch the new spaceship by 2010.
As noted in this previous post, Dr. Griffin faces entrenched opposition within the federal government and from government contractors to his efforts to revitalize NASA. This is story worth following closely, for its outcome will have a dramatic impact on the future of U.S. spaceflight, NASA, and the local Houston economy.
Update: Aerospace engineer Rand Simberg comments on Mr. Griffin’s initiatives in this TCS piece.

The Schiavo case

TerriSchiavoCase230x150.jpgA number of friends have asked me why I have not blogged on the Terri Schiavo case, to which I have stolen Eugene Volokh‘s reply that “I know nothing about the Schiavo matter, and — despite that — have no opinion.”
As we have seen with the Enron case, when a case becomes as sensationalized in the MSM as the Schiavo case has over the past several weeks, battle lines get drawn politically, increasingly shrill views compete for the public’s limited attention, and wise perspectives tend to get lost in the shuffle. Bloggers can find thoughtful views — such as those of Professors Bainbridge and Ribstein — but, let’s face it, the vast majority of the public do not read blogs.
At any rate, I wanted to pass along a couple of informative articles on the Schiavo case that will appear in next month’s New England Journal of Medicine. Timothy Quill, M.D. is a nationally-recognized expert in palliative care and end-of-life issues who is a professor of medicine, psychiatry, and medical humanities at the University of Rochester, School of Medicine and Dentistry. In this article, Dr. Quill dispassionately reviews what has occurred in the Schiavo case, and then makes the following observation:

In considering this profound decision, the central issue is not what family members would want for themselves or what they want for their incapacitated loved one, but rather what the patient would want for himself or herself. The New Jersey Supreme Court that decided the case of Karen Ann Quinlan got the question of substituted judgment right:

If the patient could wake up for 15 minutes and understand
his or her condition fully, and then had to return to it, what would he or she tell you to do?

If the data about the patient?s wishes are not clear, then in the absence of public policy or family consensus, we should err on the side of continued treatment even in cases of a persistent vegetative state in which there is no hope of recovery. But if the evidence is clear, as the courts have found in the case of Terri Schiavo, then enforcing life-prolonging treatment against what is agreed to be the patient?s will is both unethical and illegal.

In the same issue, George P. Annas, J.D., the Edward R. Utley Professor and Chair Department of Health Law, Bioethics & Human Rights at Boston University School of Public Health, pens this article in which he reviews the legal precedent relating to the Schiavo case and criticizes Congress for ignoring it. In so doing, Professor Annas observes the following:

There is (and should be) no special law regarding the refusal of treatment that is tailored to specific diseases or prognoses, and the persistent vegetative state is no exception. “Erring on the side of life” in this context often results in violating a person?s body
and human dignity in a way few would want for themselves. In such situations, erring on the side of liberty ? specifically, the patient?s right to decide on treatment ? is more consistent with American values and our constitutional traditions.

Hat tip to the HealthLawProf blog for the links to these articles.

Rocket Boy disses the Space Shuttle program

NASA.jpgHomer Hickam, the former NASA engineer and author whose brilliant October Sky was made into one of the best family films of the past decade, urges President Bush to discontinue the obsolescent Space Shuttle program in this devastating Wall Street Journal op-ed ($), in which he observes:

I left NASA in 1998 to pursue a writing career. I’m glad I did, because I could no longer stand to work on the Space Shuttle: 24 years after it first flew, what was once a magnificent example of engineering has become an old and dangerous contraption. It has killed 14 people and will probably kill more if it continues to be launched. It has also wasted a generation of engineers trying to keep it flying on schedule and safe. Frankly, that’s just not possible and most NASA engineers in the trenches know it. Einstein reputedly defined insanity as repeating the same behavior and expecting different results. The Shuttle program is a prime example of this.

Mr. Hickam describes a phenomena of big governmental agencies that Robert Coram examined in regard to the Defense Department in Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War — i.e., the tendency of power elites in governmental agencies to perpetuate their pet projects at the expense of progress and innovation. Secretary Rumsfeld is confronting much the same inertia in the Defense Department as he attempts to transform America’s military, a topic that is addressed in these earlier posts. This is not a story that the MSM covers to any meaningful degree, but it remains one of the most important to America’s survival as a superpower.

Tsunami pictures from the beach

John and Jackie Knill of Vancouver, British Columbia were killed in Khao Lak, Thailand when the December 26, 2004 tsunami struck the resort at which they were vacationing. Afterward, their digital camera was found, and though the camera was destroyed, the photos of the oncoming tsunami on the camera’s memory card were salvaged. Check out these spectacular photos.