Selling a house?

for%20sale.gifUniversity of Chicago economist Austan Goolsbee provides common sense advice on sellling a house:

So by being hung up about whether your condominium will sell for what you paid for it, you arenít just driving yourself crazy trying to get a buyer. You may be threatening the very performance of the economy and driving up the unemployment rate ó provided that many others behave in a similar way.
What is to be done? Well, if you are holding out for an above-market price to recoup your losses, perhaps you would do well to hear the advice that Professor [Christopher] Mayer gives his own family members.
ìIf you want to sell your house then you list it at the market price and you sell it,î he said. ìIf you donít really want to sell then donít put it on the market. But donít say you want to sell and then set the price so high that you spend the year cleaning up every morning, having people walk through your living room and look in your medicine cabinets and reject you. Thatís just painful ó and expensive.î
His research offers a simple lesson for everyone out there waiting for a high price to push them back into the black: Get real.

The folks over at Political Calculations take Goolsbee’s advice one step further and provide a handy calculator for determining the true value of a house.

DeLong on the rise from poverty

1900%20MckinleyTeddy1900.jpgYeah, things might be a bit testy lately in the credit markets, but Brad DeLong does a magnificent job of reminding us just how much better we have it than folks who lived not all that long ago:

. . . in 1905 an anonymous American college professor–“G.H.M.”–wrote a four-page article for the Atlantic Monthly in which he pleaded for more money for college professor salaries, and claimed to be vastly underpaid. The first thing to note is his salary: he claimed that the “average college professorís salary”–the salary that he saw as clearly inadequate and unfairly low–“is about $2,000” in the dollars of that day, 1900. Yet Stan Lebergott’s estimates in the Historical Statistics of the United States are that the average annual earnings of an employee in America in 1905 were $490 dollars if employed for the entire year (or $451 taking account of the hazards of unemployment): $2,000 was four times average of GDP per worker at the turn of the century. In order to match turn-of-the-century professors in terms of income relative to the national average, a professor today would have to make an academic salary of $300,000ña height rarely attained, and far above any average.

There is much more, so don’t miss it. DeLong’s chapter is a vivid reflection of the power of compounding economic growth. Sort of makes you wonder about those folks who advocate shaving a bit of economic growth here and there to promote some special interest. Over a century, compounding that small loss of economic growth can have a huge impact.

You don’t say?

speeding%20ticket.gifThis NY Times article reports on more research that goes into the “who needs a research project to prove that?” category:

. . . the broader question ó whether police officers in some towns are motivated by fund-raising as well as safety when writing traffic tickets ó has been examined systematically by others. Michael D. Makowsky, a doctoral student in economics, and Thomas Stratmann, an economics professor, both at George Mason University, studied the issue in a recent paper, ìPolitical Economy at Any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?î
They examined every warning and citation written by police officers in all of Massachusetts, excluding Boston, during a two-month period in 2001 ó over 60,000 in all. Their conclusion wasnít shocking to an economist: money matters, even in traffic violations. They found a statistical link between a townís finances and the likelihood that its police officers would issue a speeding ticket. The details are a little sticky, but they show that tickets were issued more often in places that were short on cash, and that out-of-towners received tickets more often than drivers with local addresses.

On the Billable Hour

Stu%27s%20Views%20Me%20Hold.gifA couple of interesting posts recently on the scourge of the business community — the billable hour — gives me the opportunity to pass along the cartoon on the left from the always-insightful Stuart M. Rees of Stu’s Views.
First, local law school blawger Luke Gilman provides a compendium of links and analysis to his comprehensive review of the state of the billable hour. Meanwhile, Peter Lattman over at the WSJ Law Blog provides this post on the breaking of the heretofore sacrosanct $1,000-an-hour billing rate, which includes local attorney Steve Susman’s classic observation that he charges in excess of a grand per hour “to discourage anyone hiring me” on an hourly basis.
Me, I continue to subscribe to the theory that I won’t charge an hourly rate that is higher than I could afford to pay if I need to hire an attorney. ;^)

Property rights, economics and AIDS

Stop-AIDS-Hand.gifPeter F. Schaefer explains how economics and property rights in African nations combine to facilitate the proliferation of the AIDs virus:

However no one in the US government and few in the anti-AIDS community are dealing with a major issue in the transmission of AIDS called “property stripping.” Since the cure for property stripping is cheap, technically quite easy and would have an enormous secondary impact on economic growth (poverty is a hidden vector of AIDS) it would seem like a sure thing for attention. But it is virtually ignored.
On World AIDS Day two years earlier Dr. Jim Yong Kim – [head of World Health Organization’s HIV Division, Kevin] De Cock’s predecessor – said,

“In sub-Saharan Africa almost 60 percent of AIDS sufferers are women [and] in some settings … we are finding … that the number one risk factor for women in becoming infected with HIV is marriage. [And] married women have the highest rates of HIV infection. We have to take on some of the most fundamental and difficult cultural and social issues that are definitely affecting the way this epidemic is spreading. And … if we can take on things like for example, property rights [so] women can inherit the property of their husband if [he] dies, that really reduces the likelihood of them getting into sex work for example. If we can … change laws, change fundamental beliefs and culture by [getting] people the right kinds of prevention messages we will have done a lot not just for HIV AIDS but for issues like gender equity that have been with us forever.”

In the scholarly literature, the traditional practice of the husband’s family inheriting all his property after he dies is called “property stripping.” In normal times, this had some logic; the husband’s family had responsibility for the widow and her children, a brother often taking her as a second wife and so assuming responsibility for his nieces and nephews.
But things have changed. In the time of AIDS, the widow is likely also infected with the HIV virus, though not yet sick since her husband often gets it first and the disease is less advanced in her when her husband dies. So even if her brother-in-law hasn’t died from AIDS himself, he is not willing to marry someone infected with HIV. And often the brother-in-law himself is sick or dead. Nevertheless, the family often still follows custom and seizes her house and farm and so she has no recourse but to turn to menial jobs, begging or prostitution. And since she was infected later, she may have years to spread her illness to her sex partners which are commonly many a day.
[A] Washington Post editorial by Richard Holbrooke . . . noted that increased testing and detection efforts was the “only effective prevention strategies can stop the spread of AIDS.” He goes on to point out that “…monogamous women [are] thrown out of their homes for a disease they got from their husbands.”

Read the entire article, which is another reminder that there are few simple solutions to this terrible disease.

Kling’s Iron Trilemma

Kling%27s%20book.gifFollowing on this post from ealier this week in regard to American’s currently failed system of health care finance, Arnold Kling follows with another one:

. . . Kling’s Iron Trilemma. We want:
–what I call insulation, where consumers enjoy the peace of mind of having their medical services paid for by a third party;
–unrestricted access, where consumers and doctors can choose medical procedures without bureaucratic interference or government budget limits;
–less stress over rising health care costs.
The trilemma is that we can have at most two out of three. Much of the “reality-based community” (an Orwellian label if there ever was one) denies that the trilemma exists. [Jonathon] Gruber [the M.I.T. economist who helped design the universal health insurance plan in Massachusetts] does not deny its existence, but he prefers restricting access to reducing insulation. I prefer the latter.

An easy prediction

Metrorail%20car-Houston080807.jpgBuried in the Chronicle’s article on the Metropolitan Transit Authority’s latest propaganda release regarding the proposed University light rail line is the following snippet:

The study estimates say the Cummins-Wheeler-Elgin combination is the least expensive of the routes considered, at $715 million, compared with $836 million for the Southwest Freeway-Alabama combination.

Prediction: Both routes will cost substantially more than the estimates and the revenue generated from the ridership will not come close to meeting the operating expenses of the line.

In praise of credit snobs

sub-prime-mortgages-080607.gifEarlier posts here and here noted Alex Tabarrok’s clever characterization of folks who criticized development of new lending vehicles for folks with low incomes or bad credit. Thus, this Economist article about a recent study on making loans to the poor caught my eye. Check out the conclusion of the study:

Contrary to the fears of the credit snobs, the readier access to credit did not tempt the new customers into a debt trap. Over 15-27 months, those reconsidered for a loan were more likely to have a formal credit score. And this score suffered no harm as a result of their easier borrowing.
Overall, the study suggests that profit-seeking lenders do not deserve the fate Dante reserved for them. Far from tempting the poor into unpayable debt, they help them keep their jobs, put food on the table, and build up a credit history. The authors show that poor people can make good use of borrowed money, even if they sometimes struggle to demonstrate this creditworthiness to lenders. If not hell, that is a kind of purgatory.

Read the entire article.

Latest on the Las Vegas Monofail

Las%20Vegas%20monorail%20080407.jpgWith the crunch worsening over the past several weeks in the credit markets, the bankruptcy reorganization forces are gearing up and eyeing potential debtors. Well, in this Heartland blog post, Thomas A. Rubin predicts one of the probable debtors that will need serious reorganization — the Las Vegas Monorail Company (prior posts here):

In short, the Las Vegas Monorail appears headed straight down the path to bankruptcy by approximately the year 2010 with nothing on the horizon that could prevent it ñ other than, perhaps, an ill-conceived government bailout or the absolute dumbest group of investors/suckers in recent financial history.
This result should come as a surprise to no one. Over the last several decades, I know of only one U.S. rail transit system, or quasi-transit system, that has come remotely close to covering its operating costs out of fares and other operating revenues (the Seattle Monorail), and none that have made any contribution what-so-ever to capital costs. However, the Las Vegas Monorail promoters assured everyone that operating revenues would not only cover operating costs, but would also cover all the debt service costs of the bonds sold to pay for the construction of the Monorail. [. . .]
One hopes that someone, somewhere, in a public sector decision-making capacity will tell the various casinos along the right of way that, if they want to see it continue to operate, well, it is all theirs.

Read the entire post, which lays out the public risks involved in even a privately-financed boondoggle of this nature. Meanwhile, this clever Political Calculations post comes up with an entertaining solution to achieving the same benefits of a light rail system at a far cheaper cost.

Fair tax?

income%20taxes%20graph.jpgGreg Mankiw provides this particularly lucid analysis of the current status of the progressive U.S. income tax system. Keep it handy when listening to the demagoguery over tax rates that will take place during the upcoming 2008 Presidential campaign.