The risks of the Texas-Mexico border

This Washington Post article reports on a troubling development that many Texans prefer to ignore — that is, the increasing number of missing persons who are being abducted in the Mexican border towns along the border of Texas and Mexico.
21 U.S. citizens have been kidnapped or disappeared between August and December of last year. Of those 21, nine were later released, two were killed, and 10 remain missing. Moreover, law enforcement officials report an alarming rate of kidnappings that are occurring across Mexico, including what are dubbed “express” kidnappings that are performed for “quick cash” ransoms.
The Rio Grande Valley of Texas — or “the Valley” as Texans call it — has always been a fascinating and troubling part of Texan culture. Larry McMurtry portrayed the late 19th century version of the area brilliantly in his Pulitzer Prize winning novel, Lonesome Dove, which was made into one of the best television mini-series of all time in 1989 with Robert Duvall and Tommie Lee Jones in the main roles. Filmmaker John Sayles provides an equally remarkable portrayal of the area during the 1950’s and 1980’s in his fine 1996 film, Lone Star, which includes Valley native Kris Kristofferson in the flat out best performance of his acting career. The area is among the lowest in terms of per capita income in the United States, yet even that chronically depressed economy is a fantasy of riches for many of those living in the poverty of the teeming Mexican border towns.
The region’s problems are complex and difficult, which makes the area prone to being ignored. The increased violence of late is the natural result of such neglect, and the usual response to such spikes in violence along the border — i.e., heightened law enforcement — is only a short term solution that often contributes to the animus that many of the Hispanic citizens of the area have toward the state. The area is desperate for leadership and a vision for solving its problems, yet those intractable problems tend to repel those in government who are in a position to do something about them. In short, the Valley needs statesmen, which are in short supply in the polarized American political landscape of the early 21st century.

Noonan and Ignatius on the Inauguration

Following Paul Gigot’s thoughts in this post from yesterday, Peggy Noonan writes this Opinion Journal op-ed today regarding President Bush’s Inaugural speech, in which she observes the following:

There were moments of eloquence: “America will not pretend that jailed dissidents prefer their chains, or that women welcome humiliation and servitude, or that any human being aspires to live at the mercy of bullies.” “We do not accept the existence of permanent tyranny because we do not accept the possibility of permanent slavery.” And, to the young people of our country, “You have seen that life is fragile, and evil is real, and courage triumphs.” They have, since 9/11, seen exactly that.
And yet such promising moments were followed by this, the ending of the speech. “Renewed in our strength — tested, but not weary — we are ready for the greatest achievements in the history of freedom.”
This is — how else to put it? — over the top. It is the kind of sentence that makes you wonder if this White House did not, in the preparation period, have a case of what I have called in the past “mission inebriation.” A sense that there are few legitimate boundaries to the desires born in the goodness of their good hearts.
One wonders if they shouldn’t ease up, calm down, breathe deep, get more securely grounded. The most moving speeches summon us to the cause of what is actually possible. Perfection in the life of man on earth is not.

Along the same lines, David Ignatius of the Washington Post observes in this op-ed:

The late congressman Phil Burton of California used to say that government officials got in trouble when they began to believe that all the show and pomp of Washington was “for real.” By that, he meant that officials were led astray when they began to think it was about themselves and their party rather than the nation. That delusion is especially easy in a second term, after four years in the adulatory echo chamber of the capital. Just ask survivors of the Nixon administration.

Can the Republicans lead?

In this brilliant op-ed today, Wall Street Journal ($) editorial page editor Paul Gigot throws down the gauntlet and challenges the Republican Party to elevate substance over form and show that the party can lead America. In a stinging rebuke of the party’s leadership over the past generation, Mr. Gigot lays it on the line for the Republicans:

Whatever one thinks of its policies, the Democratic Party surely made a difference during its 20th-century heyday. Set aside its last, corrupted years in power. When liberalism was ascendant, from the 1930s through the 1970s, Democrats permanently altered the face of government.
They ended poverty for the elderly with cross-generational entitlement programs, broke Jim Crow’s hold in the South with civil-rights laws, built the alphabet soup of regulatory agencies that bedevil American business every day, turned our courts into quasi-legislative bodies, and planted the seeds of government-run health care that continue to grow today. As the party of government, they built institutions and processes that have consistently expanded its scope.
What, in the decade since they’ve retaken the House, have Republicans done that is consequential in the same way? If the GOP majorities vanished tomorrow, what couldn’t Democrats easily repeal? I’ve asked the latter question of numerous Republicans in recent days, and the only confident answer I get is “welfare reform.” By requiring in 1996 that the poor enter the world of work, Republicans stopped the development of a permanent American underclass. Yet despite that historic success, it is striking that they still haven’t had the nerve or clout to pass an extension of even that reform through the Senate. . .
In fact, it is depressing to consider how much of what Republicans wanted to do under a Democratic president in the ’90s they have abandoned now that they control both sides of Pennsylvania Avenue. The regulatory reform requiring “cost-benefit” analysis that came within a vote of passing the Senate in 1995 has never returned. The excellent Medicaid reform vetoed by Bill Clinton has also gone nowhere, despite pleas from many governors to revive it. The Freedom to Farm Act was gutted.
Even the congressional budget process that Democrats designed to make spending easier remains entirely unchanged. Fourteen years ago, Congressman Chris Cox was able to win upward of 180 votes for such budget changes; last year he got 88, and he had to buck the rest of the GOP leadership to get even those.
Some of this can be blamed, first, on having a Democrat in the White House, and later having only small majorities on Capitol Hill, especially in the Senate. But not anymore. After November’s victory, Republicans don’t have any more excuses.

Read the entire piece. Mr. Gigot’s point is a variation on the theme that Milton Friedman touched on awhile back:

To summarize: After World War II, opinion was socialist while practice was free market; currently, opinion is free market while practice is heavily socialist. We have largely won the battle of ideas (though no such battle is ever won permanently); we have succeeded in stalling the progress of socialism, but we have not succeeded in reversing its course. We are still far from bringing practice into conformity with opinion.

With a Republican president and solid majorities in both houses of Congress, the Republicans no longer have any excuses for failing to address America’s pressing problems in such areas as health care finance, tax policy, and intelligence reform, to name just three.
The Republicans have exploited the Democratic Party’s obsolescence in these areas to seize the reins of leadership. Now, it is time for the Republicans to lead or risk, as Mr. Gigot puts it, becoming “as evanescent as the Whigs.”

Only in New York

In a rare moment of candid introspection, the NY Times concedes that only New York could come up with a political race where Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the son of the late senator, would run for state attorney general (to replace Eliot Spitzer, of all people) against his brother-in-law, Andrew Cuomo, who is getting a divorce from Mr. Kennedy’s sister, Kerry.
When I mentioned this to my wife, she thought I was talking about an episode in a T.V. sitcom.

More Econoblog — Social Security reform

The Wall Street Journal ($) is continuing its interesting Econoblog series, in which the WSJ hosts two experts in economics debating hot issues of the day. In this most recent segment, bloggers Arnold Kling and Max Zwicky debate the merits of Social Security reform. This is a first rate discussion of the issue, and includes further reading materials on the Social Security system. Don’t miss it.

The Bush Administration’s second term agenda

This Economist article does an excellent good job of summarizing and analyzing the Bush Administration’s second term agenda.

Paul O’Neill on Social Security reform

Former Bush Administration Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill criticized the Bush Administration for a lack of meaningful policy analysis in his book, The Price of Loyalty. Mr. O’Neill is a bright and independent thinker about matters of financing governmental policy, so it’s prudent to consider his ideas carefully.
In this NY Sunday Times op-ed, Mr. O’Neill proposes a debt-financed transition of the current Social Security system under which those younger than their mid-thirties would save in broad-based, low-cost index funds, on a trajectory that would return to them a $1 million annuity at retirement. Mr. O’Neill calculates that this would would require about $1 trillion in temporary financing. In short, stop the existing system for new entrants, phase out the existing system as older citizens die, and cover the transition costs with debt to be repaid out of the absence of traditional benefits to the younger entrants in future years. This is a similar plan to the one that Arizona State economics professor and Nobel Prize winner Ed Prescott proposed in this earlier post.
The most interesting observation in the op-ed is Mr. O’Neill’s blunt and disdainful analysis of the politics of Social Security reform:

As I write this I can imagine the chorus of pundits saying, “This isn’t politically possible.” Why not? Because it is too complicated for people to understand? Or because the only way to approach change in our society is through small incremental steps, like the president’s tepid notion of a limited, voluntary diversion of Social Security taxes into small private accounts?
Baloney, I say. What stands between a truly worthy aspiration for our society and its realization is political leadership with the courage to dream big.

Attempting to cure the PBGC blues

This earlier post noted the growing concern in the business community that the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation — the quasi-governmental insurer of private company pensions — is facing a string of large company bankruptcies and pension defaults that could lead to another multibillion-dollar taxpayer bailout similar to the Savings and Loan bailout of the late 1980’s.
Now it appears that the growing private pension problem is being noticed at the highest levels of government. This article from today’s NY Times reports that officials in the Bush administration are close to unveiling a rescue plan for the PBGC.
The PBGC is a government-owned insurance company that Congress created in 1974 after a string of corporate bankruptcies left retirees without pensions. The PBGC’s mission is to provide a limited guarantee of private defined-pension plans, which are pensions that provide retired workers with a set amount each month based on wages and years worked. If a pension plan terminates without adequate resources to meet its obligations to its retired workers, then the PBGC guarantees up to $45,614 annually for employees who retire at age 65.
To finance its activities, the PBGC collects annual premiums from employers with defined-benefit plans that are required to participate in the program. Last year, the premiums totaled about a billion dollars. The PGBC also receives funds from terminated pension plans that it is forced to take over.
With five U.S. airlines already wallowing in bankruptcy court, the PGBC is under an incredible load of financial pressure. Yesterday, the US Airways Group, Inc. bankruptcy court approved the turnover of three employee pension plans to the PBGC at a cost of a cool $2.3 billion. Likewise, last week, the PBGC took over the UAL Corp. (the parent of United Airlines) pilots’ pension plan in UAL’s pending chapter 11 case. The takeover is likely to cost the PBGC at least another $1.25 billion. With these kinds of growing liabilities, a taxpayer-funded bailout of the agency is inevitable unless an overhaul of the pension-insurance system is approved quickly.
The Bush administration will probably propose to prop up the pension guaranty fund with increased premiums for all participating companies, including higher fees for businesses that are on the brink of bankruptcy. However, that latter proposal shows how misguided this type of “reform” can be. Charging higher premiums to companies that are already at heightened risk of bankruptcy will actually make it harder for the companies to avoid bankruptcy. Thus, that proposal could well place PGBC fund at higher risk rather than making it more secure.
Moreover, passing any reform through Congress will not be a cakewalk. Business groups and labor unions — recognizing that a federal bailout is likely under the currently broken system — are already raising concerns about how far the changes should go. Employee groups and unions contend that imposing higher premiums or stiffer rules could prompt some companies to freeze or eliminate the lucrative but uneconomic current pension plans. Labor unions simply prefer an immediate government bailout, as they see the writing on the wall. Last year, the PGBC had a deficit of $23.3 billion, which was double the prior year’s decifit. So, we are clearly dealing with an agency here that is is bleeding badly.
And the projections are not rosy, either. The Center on Federal Financial Institutions (a Washington think tank) estimates that the PBGC will run out of cash and rack up a $78 billion deficit within the next 16 years.
As with Social Security, there will be political voices who contend that the PGBC’s current problems are not all that bad and that the reforms are just part of the Bush Administration’s pro-business and anti-labor bias. However, you can take this to the bank — the first loss on a problem such as this is the least expensive one. If we put off dealing with the problem, the cost of the bailout will increase substantially.

Hammering the Hammer

Earlier this week, House Republicans reversed course and rejected dubious Ethics rules changes that were proposed late last year that would have allowed members indicted by state grand juries to remain in a leadership post. Earlier posts on the rules changes are here and here.
The rule changes were transparently proposed to benefit Houston congressman and House Majority “Leader” Tom DeLay in the event a Travis County grand jury indicts him in connection with an investigation of campaign financing that has already resulted in the indictment of three of his political political associates.
In today’s Washington Post, David Ignatius provides this interesting profile of the Colorado representative — Joel Hefley — who decided to take on Mr. DeLay over the change in the ethics rule and, in so doing, pulled out an unlikely victory for Congressional ethics. Read the entire informative piece, which concludes with an astute observation about Mr. Hefley and Congress:

He will pay the price, but he doesn’t seem to mind. He knows he did the right thing. May his number increase.

Posner on planning for unlikely catastrophes

Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals Judge, law professor, economics and law guru, and author Richard Posner has written — in light of the recent Indian Ocean Tsunami disaster — a timely new book, Catastrophe: Risk and Response (Oxford, Oct. 1, 2004), in which he argues that governmental planning for even unlikely disasters makes economic sense. Peter Singer reviews Judge Posner’s new book here.
Judge Posner summarizes his argument in that regard in this Wall Street Journal ($) op-ed, and makes the following point that should give pause to those who advocate further cuts in NASA’s budget:

An even more dramatic example [of lack of planning for unlikely disasters] concerns the asteroid menace, which is analytically similar to the menace of tsunamis. NASA, with an annual budget of more than $10 billion, spends only $4 million a year on mapping dangerously close large asteroids, and at that rate may not complete the task for another decade, even though such mapping is the key to an asteroid defense because it may give us years of warning. Deflecting an asteroid from its orbit when it is still millions of miles from the earth is a feasible undertaking. In both cases, slight risks of terrible disasters are largely ignored essentially for political reasons.
In part because tsunamis are one of the risks of an asteroid collision, the Indian Ocean disaster has stimulated new interest in asteroid defense. This is welcome. The fact that a disaster of a particular type has not occurred recently or even within human memory (or even ever) is a bad reason to ignore it. The risk may be slight, but if the consequences, should it materialize, are great enough, the expected cost of disaster may be sufficient to warrant defensive measures.