Bush = Carter?

jimmy_carter.jpgThe inimitable Professor Bainbridge is not happy with President Bush for a variety of valid reasons, and recently observed that the President may be becoming the Republican Party’s equivalent of what former President Jimmy Carter has been for the Democratic Party.
The Professor’s criticism of President Bush has merit. Regardless of what one thinks about the Administration’s venture into Iraq, the Bush Administration has overseen a tremendously damaging criminalization of business interests, largely ignored health care finance reform and income tax simplification, increasd farm subsidies, installed tariffs for various products (including steel, lumber, and even shrimp), created a massive new prescription drug benefit, promoted dubious amendments to the U.S. Bankruptcy Code and nationalized airline security by folding it into a huge and ineffectual bureaucracy. That’s not exactly a slate of accomplishments that exudes Presidential greatness.
But as bad as Jimmy Carter? No way. Refresh your memory of just how bad Mr. Carter was (and continues to be) in these reviews (here and here) of Steven F. Hayward‘s book about Mr. Carter, The Real Jimmy Carter. Even as bad as President Bush has been, he cannot limbo under the low bar that Mr. Carter established.
Along these lines, this Opinion Journal piece discusses a recent poll of historians who ranked Mr. Bush’s performance as average among Presidents. Mr. Carter ranked as below-average, just a cut above “failure.”

Posner v. the Media

posner4.jpgThree weeks ago, 7th Circuit Judge Richard Posner (prior posts here) penned this “review” of eight books on the media in the NY Times Review of Books. “Review” is in parenthesis because the piece was not so much a review of the eight books as a forum for Judge Posner to pass along his always entertaining views, this time on the media in America. Among his many observations, Judge Posner discounted the ability of even conscientious reporters and editors to put their personal beliefs aside to generate fair and honest journalism.
Well, in an interesting development, New York Times executive editor Bill Keller has written this Letter to the Editor (scroll down to the second letter) of his own newspaper in which he harshly criticizes Judge Posner’s article on the media as, among other things, “tendentious and cynical.” Bill Moyers and Eric Alterman also chime in. Finally, Dean Velvel provides this more extensive analysis on Judge Posner’s article, and Professor Ribstein has an interesting view of the journalists’ protective reaction to Judge Posner’s criticism.
I look forward to Judge Posner’s response, which will probably be published here.

Abramoff indicted

abramoffj.jpgJack Abramoff, a lobbyist who is a top Republican fund-raiser and political ally of Houston congressman and House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, was indicted yesterday in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida on charges of defrauding two lenders in his purchase of a casino cruise line five years ago. Mr. DeLay is not mentioned in the indictment and apparently had no involvement in the activities that led to this particular indictment. As noted in these previous posts, the Justice Department is also investigating Mr. Abramoff for allegedly bilking four Indian tribes he represented in connection with his lobbying business.

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The Power of Pork

metrocar8.jpgTory Gattis and I recently generated some interesting discussion regarding mass transit generally and light rail in particular in a series of posts (here, here and here). Part of the psychology in favor of the light rail projects discussed in that blog thread is that the federal government — regardless of economic merit — is going to throw some political pork barrel funds at light rail projects, so light rail proponents reason that we might as well claim our fair share.
Although that line of reasoning is understandable, it doesn’t really make me feel any better about the pork being distributed in the first place. This Washington Post article provides a good analysis of the politics of the new transportation bill:

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The Psychology of Light Rail

Tory Gattis (Houston Strategies) recently authored this insightful post that explores the vexing question of why many people passionately support light rail in the face of the overwhelming economic arguments against it?

Tory concludes that it has something to do with an unexpressed human psychological need to be liked — sort of like, “Here, check out and play with my light rail toy, and you will probably think better of me.”

Tory is clearly on to something in that there appears to be an element of a civic inferiority complex underlying some folks’ support for light rail. However, Tory’s point still does not explain why people who need mass transit the most — i.e., folks who cannot afford the cost of buying and maintaining a car — support light rail, which certainly does not improve their mobility and, by drawing resources away from mobility projects that would, probably harms it.

My sense is that that question lies somewhere between the human demand for entitlement and lack of viable choices.

As previously noted on this blog, the true economic benefit of light rail is highly concentrated in only a few interest groups — political representatives of minority communities who tout the political accomplishment of shiny toy rail lines while ignoring their constituents need for more effective mass transit, environmental groups that are striving for political influence, construction-related firms that feed at the trough of light rail projects, and private real estate developers who enrich themselves through the increase in their property values along the rail line.

Inasmuch as none of these reasons for mass transit appeal to the part of the electorate who actually need mass transit, this amalgamation of interest groups continues to disguise their true interests behind amorphus claims that the uneconomic rail lines reduce traffic congestion (they do not), curb air pollution (they do not), or improve the quality of life (at least debatable). The literature on all this is public and volumnious — check out demographia.com, cascadepolicy.org, and americandreamcoalition.org.

So, how do these interest groups get away with this? The costs of such systems are widely dispersed among the local population of an area such as Houston, so the many who stand to lose will lose only a little while the few who stand to gain will gain a lot.

As a result, these small interest groups recognize that it is usually not worth the relatively small cost per taxpayer for most citizens who do not use mass transit to spend any substantial amount of time or money lobbying or simply taking the time to vote against an uneconomic rail system.

Meanwhile, the light rail interest groups garner support for light rail from the part of the electorate that actually needs mass transit by simultaneously limiting the mass transit choices and threatening that part of the electorate with loss of the governmental funds for mass transit if they fail to support light rail.

Thus, a referendum on mass transit issues is never promoted with choices between alternatives such as a light rail system, one one hand, and a cheaper and more effective bus-based system system, on the other. It’s simply an “all or nothing” choice, and folks who need mass transit will understandably vote in favor of getting their share of public transportation funds even if it does not improve their mobility one iota.

Indeed, given the cost of light rail systems, one wonders how those citizens who actually need mass transit would vote if the alternative were a light rail system, on one hand, and a new Toyota Prius for each such citizen, on the other? Frankly, the cost of the latter alternative would likely be cheaper than most any light rail plan.

So, at the end of the day, where does that leave us? Is it wrong that people who need mass transit vote in favor of something that does not really address their needs? No, it does not, but it troubles me when they are misled in doing so.

As Anne Linehan and Kevin Whited (blogHouston.net) have repeatedly pointed out, a part of Metro’s pitch for its light rail plan was that light rail would enhance Metro’s bus system and service. Inasmuch as that representation has turned out to be patently false, it seems reasonable that our public officials should at least be required to point out publicly that Metro’s most utilized and efficient mass transit system — i.e., the bus system — will likely continue to erode as Metro continues to invest heavily in light rail.

In the meantime, it would also be nice if public officials would admit publicly that the usual economic justifications for light rail are also dubious. If mass transit users and other citizens want to allow Houston’s public officials to continue to throw money at a light rail system in the face of the economic truth about such a system, then I can live with that result despite my compassion for those citizens who are not being provided the mass transit that they need.

But at least let’s require truth in advertising in connection with having citizens vote on such matters.

A similar sentiment is shared in this interesting Owen Courreges post (Lone Star Times) in which he takes the Chronicle to task for suggesting that Metro’s political opposition — rather than Metro itself — is misleading the public about Metro’s expanded light rail plan.

Finally, Tory points out that we should take some comfort in the fact that Houston’s light rail plan is at least not as big an economic boondoggle as similar plans proposed for Seattle and Denver. Similarly, a couple of commentators to Tony’s post chime in that the marginal cost of the light rail system to Houston area citizens is relatively small for a civic asset that will impress citizens and visitors alike for many years to come. That latter point may have some validity, but let’s make sure that we are talking about the correct marginal cost.

A big difference between the light rail system and the publicly-funded stadiums that Houston has built over the past several years are that the stadiums have tenants who pay the vast majority of the cost of maintaining the facilities.

In comparison, Metro’s light rail system does not come close to generating enough revenue to pay its ongoing costs, as was brought home by Metro’s recent announcement of desultory operating results coupled with the expenditure of $104 million more on the three-year-old rail line to fix problems caused by construction errors and add more rail cars.

In that regard, even the $1.5 million that Harris County spends annually to mothball the Astrodome pales in comparison to underwriting the ongoing cost of the light rail system.

The bottom line is that light rail systems eat voraciously, and any analysis of the true marginal cost of such a system to citizens has to take into consideration the high cost of feeding that appetite.

Judge Roberts and Rome

John_roberts4.jpgOver time, politicians will manage to stand just about any issue in American politics on its head.
Houston played host to one of the most important speeches of John F. Kennedy‘s 1960 Presidential campaign. Conventional political wisdom at the time was that a Catholic could not be elected President of the United States because of Protestants’ perception that a Catholic would have to obey the Pope’s commands over those of the U.S. Constitution. Mr. Kennedy finally decided to address the issue head-on, and on September 12, 1960, he delivered this statement to the Greater Houston Ministerial Association, in which Theodore White observed that “he knocked religion out of the campaign as an intellectually respectable issue.”

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Kelo ripples hit the Cowboys stadium project

cowboys stadiummain.jpgAs noted in this earlier post, the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision in Kelo v. City of New London inevitably will have ripples, including the use of government’s eminent domain power to increase the value of privately-owned professional sports franchises at the expense of private property owners.
Thus, it is not surprising that Arlington landowners have filed the first lawsuit over the City of Arlington’s use of its eminent domain power to seize the landowners’ land for the benefit of Jerry Jones and his Dallas Cowboys stadium project. The landowners contend that the stadium project — although tacitly owned by the City — is beneficially owned and certainly controlled by Mr. Jones through a long-term ground lease, and that using the government’s eminent domain power to take private property from one person and give it to another is unconstitutional. Sounds like Kelo II, doesn’t it?

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A personal experience with Judge Roberts

John_roberts2.jpgAlthough I do not agree with the writer’s conclusion, this post tells a personal story about Supreme Court nominee John G. Roberts, Jr. that reflects why he is one of my favorites for a spot on the Supreme Court and certainly will not result in this type of embarrassment. Hat tip to Craig Newmark for the link to the post on Judge Roberts.

City Hall, San Diego style

San Diego logo.gifA couple of former City of Houston aides have had a rough spot lately, but frankly our corruption is blase’ compared to what’s going on at City Hall in San Diego recently.
First, the San Diego mayor resigned a couple of weeks ago amidst a pension fund scandal. Then, after about 60 hours on the job, the mayor’s interim successor — along with another member of the San Diego City Council — was convicted of conspiracy, extortion, and fraud in connection with a scheme to receive money for changing a city law to benefit strip club owners. With a new interim mayor and another mayor to be elected in a special election, that makes four mayors by my count in the space of just a few months. All of which prompted economist and San Diego resident James Hamilton to observe:

Forgive me if this sounds paranoid, but isn’t this the same crowd to whom the Supreme Court gave the power to kick me out of my home in order to hand it to some developer? Not that any City Council members would ever let how much money they got from that developer influence their decision on something like that.

Judge Roberts in action

John_G._roberts.jpgOrin Kerr over at the Volokh Conspiracy refers us to this recent D.C. Circuit decision in which U.S. Supreme Court nominee John G. Roberts, Jr. wrote a lively dissent and, in so doing, provides a glimpse of why he was one of my favorites for nomination to the Supreme Court.
The decision involves a search and seizure case. The defendant was driving a car with the license plate light out. After police stopped him, it turned out that he did not have a driver’s license on him, that his license had been suspended, and that the car had stolen tags. During the stop, the police could find not find anything that indicated that the car was properly registered. Thus, the police arrested the defendant and then they searched the car’s trunk, where they found a gun. Wallah! The defendant was charged with a gun possession crime and we now have a search and seizure case.

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