Why some people should not vote
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You know it’s desperation time for McCain when Victor Davis Hanson plays the Jimmy Carter card against Obama:
A great many moderates and conservatives are worn out and tired of Bush and Bush hatred, the European furor, serial charges of racism and illiberalism, and finally, in their weariness, think that Obama will, in a variety of ways, just make all the ickiness go away-as if he will make all of us be liked abroad and end racial and red/blue fighting at home. They should ask themselves whether Jimmy Carter restored American popularity with his human rights campaigns, praise of left-wing dictators, dialogue during the hostage crisis (cf. "The Great Satan"), boasts of no more inordinate fear of communism, etc., or whether Obama, in his Trinity/Acorn/Pfleger years, brought racial healing and understanding to Chicago.
This post from four years ago surveys the disastrous effect that the Carter Presidency had on the Democratic Party, and here is an earlier Hanson broadside on Carter.
The playing of the Jimmy Carter card reminded me of the following portrait of Carter penned by his first Treasury Secretary, W. Michael Blumenthal. The description is included on page 338 of Robert D. Novak’s The Prince of Darkness: 50 Years Reporting in Washington (Crown 2007), which is a rollicking good read:
Although things aren’t going so well for the McCain-Palin campaign, it looks as if they have at least locked up The Villages, the golf-course retirement community in Florida that runs those cheesy commercials during PGA Tour golf tournament telecasts:
With thousands of supporters packing the streets and sidewalks of this massive retirement community, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin took the safe route Sunday and said she and John McCain would reform Washington, put America on the path to energy independence and nurse a struggling economy back to health. [ . . . ]
At one point while signing autographs for the sweltering crowd, a surprised Palin laughed when a supporter reached over and handed her a giant, plastic lipstick replica — an obvious reference to a joke delivered by Palin at the Republican National Convention. Palin’s comment about the only difference between a pit bull and a hockey mom being lipstick has since inspired a volley of campaign rhetoric. As the crowd cheered, a smiling Palin autographed the novelty before moving on for more autographs and handshakes.
Meanwhile, it appears that the Obama-Biden campaign has conceded The Villages to McCain-Palin. At least that’s what Senator Biden seems to indicate in the video below:
I’ve already said my piece on the proposed Treasury Bailout of Wall Street, so I won’t belabor that view.
In the meantime, there are much better places to keep up with the minute-by-minute political developments on the proposed bailout — for example, check out Clusterstock, DealBreaker and Felix Salmon for astute and up-to-the-minute analysis.
However, one point from my previous post deserves further review — that is, circumstances such as this provide us with a revealing view of our political leaders.
Do they inspire positive and collaborative action in difficult times for the better good of society?
Or do they attempt to generate support for their political position through fear-mongering and demagoguery?
In my view, President Bush’s handling of the negotiations over the proposed bailout has been abysmal. As Jeff Matthews points out:
The President’s unfortunate choice of words—”this sucker could go down”—carry the same deer-in-headlights quality as his televised speech to the American people last week, in which he used the word “panic,” as we recall.
At a minimum, it makes you nervous; at a maximum, it makes you want to throw up first and sell everything second.What happened to the heroic, forward-looking rhetoric great leaders are supposed to provide in times of crisis?
FDR gave us “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.” Churchill gave us “We shall fight on the beaches.” George Bush cruises in with “This sucker could go down.”
We wonder: has a more irresponsible sentence been uttered, by anyone, during this entire crisis?
John Carney reports that President Bush wasn’t any better today in responding to the House’s rejection of the proposed bailout:
“We put forth a plan that was big because we got a big problem,” Bush just said, sitting in a chair placed before a fireplace in the White House. He’s meeting with advisers, he said. “I’m disappointed with the vote in Congress,” the president said.
Was that his version of FDR’s famous fireside chats? Bush looked annoyed he was being bothered with this stuff.
This from a President who failed to persuade more than a third of his own party members in the House for his position in response to a financial emergency?
The debate over the proposed Treasury bailout of Wall Street firms is coming at a fortuitous time — the election season.
Be wary of any candidates who, after looking appropriately concerned about the dire predictions of the plan’s promoters, throw up their hands and vote in favor of the bailout because “we just have to do something” even if they don’t understand what they are doing.
The fear mongering that the promoters are using to sell the bailout is laughable. This is not rocket science.
For example, when Enron tanked in late 2001, it was the seventh largest public company in the U.S. Enron traded derivatives and other financial instruments with counterparties that were among Wall Street’s biggest commercial and investment banks, which were heavily exposed to its losses. To make matters worse, these investments were concentrated in the energy sector, which is at least as important to the nation’s economy as the housing sector that is at the center of the current crisis.
In short, at the time of its bankruptcy, Enron was one of the nation’s largest publicly-owned companies, a vitally-important market-maker in the natural gas trading industry and a leader in hedging corporate risk through structured finance transactions.
Despite the huge wealth destruction that would result from Enron’s insolvency, not one government or Wall Street leader proposed a bailout of Enron in order to preserve the huge value to the public of the natural gas trading industry and the market for structured finance transactions. And they were right not to do so.
Enron’s bankruptcy proceeded to cause enormous tremors through various industries — particularly the energy industry — because valuable resources for hedging risk of loss had evaporated seemingly overnight. The natural gas trading industry nearly fell apart completely, costing companies and their customers untold billions of dollars that they otherwise could have saved through hedging risk of loss. Similarly, the market for many structured finance transactions dried up, also costing companies another valuable avenue for hedging risk.
However, the nation’s financial system did not break down. Companies adjusted to the changed circumstances and endured their additional costs as best they could. Markets also adjusted. Slowly but surely, both the natural gas trading industry and the market for structured finance transactions rebounded so that both are again providing companies with valuable alternatives for hedging risk and saving money.
Now, the tables are turned on Wall Street. Rather than facing the consequences of their risk-taking decisions in chapter 11, Wall Street’s politically well-connected leaders are weaving their tales of doom for the overall economy to compliant governmental leaders who are only too willing to do their bidding.
In reality, each of these Wall Street firms should be required to endure the same thing that Enron and its creditors did — a chapter 11 reorganization where equity gets wiped out and creditors either take a haircut on payment of their debts or convert their debt to equity in a reorganized firm that emerges from bankruptcy with a cleaned-up balance sheet.
That process ensures that investors and creditors who undertook the risk of investing or dealing with the bankrupt firms share the losses of their risk-taking. Moreover, it allows the firms that really are worth saving (as opposed to simply liquidating) to emerge from bankruptcy with an improved financial condition that should provide the firm with an enhanced opportunity to create wealth again.
What the bailout plan proposes to do is insulate investors and creditors from risk of loss by having the government — funded by taxpayers such as you and me — undertake that risk. There is simply no moral justification for foisting that risk on taxpayers and the only possible practical justification is that sorting all of these firms’ problems out in chapter 11 might take awhile.
But even if the government saw fit to accelerate the Wall Street reorganizations to hedge the risk of a prolonged economic downturn, there is simply no reason for the government to overpay for assets from financially-troubled firms. Rather, the government should simply propose a plan that implements the going-concern liquidation and debt-for-equity reorganization features of chapter 11 on an accelerated basis in return for some reasonable financial contribution to the process. And you can bet that contribution doesn’t need to be close to $700 billion.
Luigi Zingales, the Robert C. Mc Cormack Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance at the University of Chicago, has written the most cogent piece I’ve seen to date on why the bailout is a bad idea.
Even though it was wrong for the government to contribute to the massive amounts of wealth destruction that resulted from the demonization of Enron, the government was right not to bail out Enron. The circumstances are different now, so perhaps a different approach is more prudent than simply allowing all of these Wall Street companies to be sorted out in chapter 11.
But throwing $700 billion at investors and creditors who should be sharing the losses of their risk-taking is not even close to the best way of doing it.
Update: I couldn’t help but laugh out loud this morning as Warren Buffett and the promoters of the Treasury bailout plan point to Buffett’s sweet $5 billion investment in Goldman Sachs as an endorsement of the plan.
I prefer to look at what Buffett is doing rather than what he is saying.
What he is not doing is what Paulson and Bernanke want the U.S. Treasury to do — buy investment banks’ toxic assets.
Rather, Buffett is buying preferred shares in Goldman with a big yield and warrants to buy Goldman stock at $115 (its trading at over $130) so that he can recover the profit his investment helps foster while Goldman transitions from an investment bank to a bank holding company over the next couple of years.
Meanwhile, Paulson and Bernanke keep promoting their plan to throw $700 billion at whatever trashy assets that Wall Street serves up to them.
It does not engender much confidence that Buffett can cut a far better deal with Wall Street’s best-run investment bank than Paulson and Bernanke propose to cut with the worst-run ones.
Mr. Juggles over at Long or Short Capital passes along this fictional thank-you note from Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to American taxpayers after this week’s seemingly inevitable federal bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (prior posts here):
Dear US Taxpayer,
I would like to congratulate you on your recent purchase. I am glad I was able to convince you that now is the ideal time to offer an uncapped backstop on a $5.2 trillion book of mortgages. We here at the Treasury Dept (along with our sisters over at the Fed), appreciate your repeat business. I am confident that this acquisition will be a profitable one; perhaps even more profitable than your recent purchase of JPMorgan’s Bear Stearns’ liabilities!
Please know that we are actively seeking more deals on which we can work together. I am confident we will find more interesting opportunities before the end of the year.
Yours Truly,
Hank Paulson
Herbert Spencer got it right long ago (H/T Bryan Caplan):
"The ultimate effect of shielding men from the effects of folly, is to fill the world with fools."