As Super Sunday approaches, check out this Dave Berri post on his final quarterback and running back ratings for the 2008 season.

A few observations:

The Texans’ QB Matt Schaub had the 10th best season among QB’s and rookie RB Steve Slaton had the 4th best season among running backs. Three of the seven QB’s selected for the Pro Bowl rated worse than Schaub. All six of the Pro Bowl RB’s rated worse than Slaton!

QB Chad Pennington, who the Jets discarded in favor of Brett Favre, finished 3rd in the rankings. Aaron Rodgers, who the Packers kept instead of Favre, finished 11th, one behind Schaub.  Favre finished 27th, which was among the worst performances in the league. Favre, not Pennington, Rodgers or Schaub, was invited to the Pro Bowl. John Madden does very good PR for Brett Favre.

One of the only five QB’s who rated worse than Favre this season is the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger, who just happens to be QB’ing the favored team in Sunday’s big game. Kurt Warner, the opposing QB in the Super Bowl, finished in 9th place, one slot ahead of Schaub.

Finally, Berri makes an important distinction between the highly interdependent nature of football in comparison to baseball and basketball:

[W]e must remember that systematic analysis in football is extremely difficult.  Unlike basketball and baseball — where player performance is largely independent of his teammates (at least for hitters in baseball) — the performance of football players depends on the performance of the player’s teammates.  These interaction effects severely hamper the objective analysis of the game.

And that can be seen when we look at how much time I devote to discussing football.  Like I did with basketball, I also have a model to measure performance in football.  But the measurement of performance in football really only tells one story.  The interaction effects in football cause the performance statistics to be inconsistent.  So the players we see perform well today are not necessarily going to perform well tomorrow.  Although I like telling that story, it’s really about all I ever say about the NFL.

(previous weekly reviews are here)

Texas Longhorns 24 Ohio State 21

In a not particularly well-played, but nevertheless highly-entertaining Fiesta Bowl last Monday night, the Longhorns (12-1) used some more QB Colt McCoy magic with 16 seconds left to pull out the victory over upset-minded Ohio State (10-3).

After arguably his worst half of the season, McCoy (41-59/414 yds/2 TD/1 INT) rebounded in the second half of the game to lead the Horns to a 17-6 third quarter lead, then engineered the spine-tingling comeback in the final two minutes after the Buckeyes had rallied during the fourth quarter to take the lead. WR Quan Cosby had a monster game (14 receptions for 171 yds and 2 TD’s) and capped his Longhorn career with a spectacular catch and run for the game-clinching TD.

In many respects, this Longhorn team was the product of the best performance by head coach Mack Brown during his tenure at UT. With Oklahoma’s (12-2) loss to Florida in the BCS Championship game, the win over tOSU gave the Horns the best record and the highest national ranking of any Big 12 team. The Horns survived a brutal mid-season stretch of games against highly-ranked teams and came within a dropped interception in the final minute of the Texas Tech game of playing in the BCS Championship game. Given their improvement on defense this season over the 2007 season, the stability of the coaching staff and the return of McCoy next season, UT’s future remains bright, although the failure of a dominant running back to emerge this season is cause for some concern.

UT’s troubles against Ohio State, Texas Tech’s embarrassing loss to Mississippi in the Cotton Bowl, and OU’s loss to Florida reflects a trend of Big 12 teams having problems against top-tier defenses of non-Big 12 teams. The Longhorns’ lack of a consistent rushing attack was a problem against the salty Ohio State defense and that inconsistency could leave the Horns vulnerable next season to the tougher defenses that they will face against a top tier team in a bowl game.

In fact, the lack of top-notch defenses overall in the Big 12 should be at least a moderate concern for conference coaches and officials, who appear to have swung the pendulum too far in favor of the offenses in an effort to create exciting, high-scoring games. Texas Tech’s offensive linemen looked absolutely shocked during the Cotton Bowl when referees from another conference actually called holding against them a couple of times during the game. Tech’s offensive linemen rarely endured holding calls this season from Big 12 referees.

Such small problems aside, things are definitely looking up for the Longhorns next season. With a much more favorable schedule, the Longhorns will begin the 2009 campaign as a consensus top 3 pick in the national polls. Inasmuch as OU will probably have to replace their star QB Sam Bradford, the Horns will probably also be the consensus favorite to win the Big 12 championship.

It’s all good these days in Longhorn Country.

(WRMSOX photo; previous weekly reviews are here)

Rice 38 Western Michigan 14

As expected, the Owls (10-3) rolled to an easy win in the Texas Bowl last Tuesday as star QB Chase Clement (30-44/307 yds/3 TD’s/12 carries for 72 yds/1 TD/1 catch/13 yds/1 TD) and the potent Rice offense overwhelmed the Western Michigan defense (9-5). Any further question why Notre Dame opted for the Aloha Bowl over facing the Owls in the Texas Bowl?

The victory gave the Owls their 10th win in a season for the first time in almost 60 years and their first win in a bowl game since the 1954 Cotton Bowl.

Inasmuch as I’ve been watching the Rice offense develop over past three seasons under Clement, I was not surprised by the Owls’ performance this season. Clement, WR Jaret Dillard and WR-TE-RB James Casey were as talented a trio of offensive players on one team as any in the nation.

The problem that the Owls face is whether they can sustain that level of performance.

Clement and Dillard are both seniors, as is a substantial part of the Owls’ offensive line. Casey is a likely NFL draft choice, so it is unlikely that he will take the risk of uncompensated injury by returning for another season at Rice. Tom Herman, the Owls’ offensive coordinator who really ignited Rice’s spread offense over the past two seasons, left Rice last week to take the same position at Iowa State.

So, Owls head coach David Bailiff is going to have his hands full trying to maintain the performance level that the Owls attained this season. I hope he can, but I have my doubts.

Houston Cougars 34 Air Force 28

The Cougars (8-5) completed a successful first season under new head coach Kevin Sumlin with a victory over a plucky Air Force (8-5) squad on New Year’s Even afternoon in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl in Ft. Worth.

The game should not have been as close as it was. The referees inexplicably took away a second half TD from Houston even though it was clear from the replay that RB Bryce Beall had possession of the ball while breaking the plane of the goal line before fumbling (see picture above). Also, the Air Force’s only second-half TD, which allowed the Falcons to narrow the Coogs’ lead to three, was set up by star Cougar TE Mark Hafner allowing an easy pass reception to ricochet off his chest into the hands of a Falcon defender. But for that blown call and Hafner’s gaffe, the Coogs would have won this one going away.

Nevertheless, the Coogs will take the victory, their first bowl win in nine tries since their last bowl win the 1980 Garden State Bowl. Beall, the Cougars’ true freshman RB, was the star of the game as he shredded the Falcons’ defense for 135 yds on 22 carries (6.1 ave) and a TD, while catching four screen passes for an additional 92 yds.

Meanwhile, Cougar QB Case Keenum managed the Cougar offense magnificently (no college QB sets up and throws a screen pass any better), guiding the Coogs to over 400 yds total offense while spreading the ball around to seven different Cougar receivers.

And as noted above, the Cougar defense — which has been the team’s weak point all season — really stepped up in the second half and did a fine job of containing the Falcons’ wishbone offense.

With almost all of their offensive playmakers returning, the Cougars should possess one of the most potent offenses in college football next season. The challenge will be to upgrade the defense, which has suffered the past two seasons from several years of under-recruiting by former Houston coach Art Briles’ staff. Given the probable productivity of the Cougars offense, even a relatively small improvement in the Cougars’ defense next season is likely to vault Houston to the top tier of non-BCS Conference football teams.

Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns (11-1) take on Ohio State (10-2) in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl at 7 p.m. tonight in Phoenix on FOX. The Vegas line on the game began at Texas minus 11, but it has since moved to Texas minus 8 and, at a couple of casinos, Texas minus 7.5. Take that for what it’s worth.

Houston Texans

As predicted, head coach Gary Kubiak didn’t waste any time after the conclusion of the season in firing defensive coordinator Richard Smith and two of his assistants.

As noted since his hiring, I’m not convinced that Kubiak is the best fit as a coach to develop the Texans into a playoff caliber team. However, I am impressed with his willingness to recognize mistakes and take actions to attempt to correct them. Stubbornness is a common characteristic of unsuccessful NFL coaches and Kubiak does not appear to be afflicted with it. Hopefully, he will hire a seasoned NFL defensive assistant who can develop the Texans’ young talent into a unit that is as productive as the Texans’ offense.

On the other hand, I couldn’t help but note the following passage from this NY Times article on the recent firing of long-time Denver Broncos head coach and Kubiak mentor, Mike Shanahan:

Although [QB Jay] Cutler gave the Broncos hope for the future, Shanahan was ultimately undone by an increasingly leaky defense, something a revolving door of defensive coordinators could not seal, and a string of questionable draft picks and free-agent signings that Shanahan made as the team’s executive vice president for football operations. In Shanahan’s absence, the Broncos are in the market for a general manager as well.

The Broncos’ defense was ranked among the league’s top seven in seven of the nine seasons beginning in 1997. In the last four years, however, the defense plunged to middle-of-the-pack status, then to No. 29 in 2008.

If Kubiak hires a Denver retread as his new defensive coordinator who doesn’t improve the Texans’ defense markedly, then similar words will be written about him within a year or two.

Richard Justice has already deemed him a genius.

Earlier this month, he visited President Bush in the White House and, on Sunday night, he will be profiled on CBS-TV’s 60 Minutes.

Even Michael Lewis has bought in to the genius story.

But after a middle-of-the-road SEC program thoroughly manhandled his Texas Tech squad in the Cotton Bowl yesterday, Mike Leach looks more like a public relations genius than a football one.

Look, Leach is a reasonably good coach with an innovative offense. However, he is not close to being the savant that Tech’s breakout season is leading some folks to suggest.

In fact, an objective evaluation of Leach’s Tech career reveals that his teams run up big offensive numbers, but are not particularly impressive against teams with comparable or better talent.

After Tech’s 11-2 record this season, Leach has a 76-39-0 record in his nine seasons at Tech, which works out to a salty 66% winning percentage.

Although that is the best mark of any long-time coach at Tech over the past 70 years, a substantial part of Leach’s success has been his 29-5 (85.2%) regular season mark against non-Big 12 opponents, which have been mostly sacrificial lambs.

Of those 34 non-conference games, only five have been against other BCS-conference teams — Ohio State (loss), Mississippi (2 wins) and North Carolina State (2 losses). The last time that Tech even played a non-conference regular season game against a BCS-conference opponent was in 2003.

Meanwhile, Tech under Leach has feasted on such sacrificial lambs as Division 1-AA teams Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston State, Indiana State, Southeastern Louisiana, Northwestern State, Eastern Washington and UMass, as well as undermanned Division I-A outfits such as SMU and New Mexico.

Eleven of Tech’s non-conference wins under Leach have been against SMU and New Mexico. Winning over 85% of those games isn’t particularly impressive.

On the other hand, Leach’s Big 12 conference record is another story.

Even after this season’s 7-1 Big 12 record, Leach’s record in Big 12 play is 42-30 (58.3%). Leach-coached Tech teams are only 4-14 against Texas and Oklahoma, including this season’s 65-21 embarrassing loss to the Sooners that removed Tech from any serious consideration for a BCS Bowl game.

Indeed, Leach’s teams have had only a 4-4 Big 12 conference record in four of of his nine seasons at Tech, including two of the last three. With yesterday’s loss in the Cotton Bowl, Leach’s bowl record at Tech is a decent, but certainly not superlative, 5-4.

Finally, Leach has used extremely poor judgment in some of his public remarks about assistant coaches on his staff, and he has exhibited a selective memory in his comments about game officials, too.

So, given Leach’s prolific offense, why aren’t his teams better against big-time opponents?

The main reason is that the defenses on Leach’s Tech teams have been generally dreadful, a quality that has not been helped by Leach’s tendency to place his defenses in awkward field position situations by taking bizarre fourth-down chances and throwing high-risk passing plays deep in Tech’s side of the field.

This is genius?

Having said all that, Leach has done an admirable job at Tech. Producing a consistently winning team and going to nine straight bowl games is a noteworthy accomplishment at Tech.

However, Leach’s record at Tech is simply not extraordinary and not indicative of the genius label that many are attaching to him. And it is unlikely that he will ever do better than he has this past season because the nature of his system makes it difficult for him to recruit the defensive talent necessary to compete at the highest levels of the big-time college game.

Frankly, my sense is that it’s more likely that another innovator of offensive football — Georgia Tech’s Paul Johnson — will get his team to a BCS Bowl game before Mike Leach.

Says TigerHawk:

"Until I witnessed Brent Musburger’s love of USC, I did not think it was possible for a journalist to love a subject more than Chris Matthews loves Barack Obama. Now I am not so sure."

(AP Photo/Dave Einsel; previous weekly reviews are here)

Texans 31 Bears 24

Well, at least this time, the Texans (8-8) beat the Bears’ (9-7) first-string rather than the Jags’ junior varsity to achieve only the franchise’s second non-losing season in seven NFL campaigns. The win also allowed the Texans to match my pre-season prediction for wins this season.

As usual, the Texans were led by their star WR Andre Johnson, who had 10 receptions for 148 yds and two TD’s. QB Matt Schaub finished 27-36 for 328 yards, the two TD’s to Johnson and, most importantly, no interceptions.

After the Bears jumped off to a 10-0 lead in a desultory first quarter, the Texans’ offense pretty well had its way with the Bears’ defense, rolling up 455 yds total offense. Surprisingly, after looking defenseless during the first quarter and losing stud DE Mario Williams to a pulled muscle for most of the second half, the Texans’ defense rebounded from the first quarter to hold the Bears to under 300 yds total offense.

So, another season, another 8-8 record for the Texans. There are definitely two ways to look at the Texans at this point in time.

On one hand, with another non-winning season, the Texans continue to be one of the least-successful new franchises in the history of the National Football League. Inasmuch as the team had a 7-9 record after its third year, one can make the case that not much progress has been made over the past four seasons. Yes, the offense is better, but the defense is arguably worse than it was after Year Three. Have the deck chairs simply been rearranged on the Titanic?

On the other hand, several signs indicate that the Texans are headed in the right direction. The offensive line and the receiving corps are far-improved and have more depth than at any time in franchise history. Schaub appears to have the talent necessary to become a consistently above-average NFL signal-caller. Rookie RB Steve Slaton is an excellent back who will only get better if the Texans can bring in another running back to take some of the load off of him in coming seasons.

Meanwhile, although the defense has not improved statistically from last season to this one, the Texans have a nucleus of good, young defensive players who should be able to gel into a reasonably formidable unit over the next several seasons.

What changes do the Texans need to make during the off-season? As I’ve noted several times during this season, the defense has not improved as much as it should have over the past two seasons based on the number of draft picks that the Texans have used on that unit. So, a case can be made that changes in the defensive coaching staff are justified.

However, what is the market going to be for defensive coaches during this off-season? It doesn’t make sense to make such a change and risk what could be gradual improvement in a young defensive unit that usually results from coaching staff continuity unless there is a reasonable probability that the new coaches will generate even more improvement.

Either way, as predicted before this season, the 2009 season is the one in which the Texans should emerge as a bona-fide playoff contender. If not, then owner Bob McNair will have harder decisions to make than merely whether to alter his defensive coaching staff.

Longhorns, Cougars and Owls

The Rice Owls (9-3) begin the local teams’ bowls season with the Texas Bowl at Reliant Stadium on Tuesday night (7 p.m., NFL Network) against Western Michigan (9-3).

The Houston Cougars (7-5) follow up on Wednesday afternoon (11 a.m., ESPN) in the Ft. Worth Bowl against Air Force (8-4).

And then the Texas Longhorns (11-1) take on Ohio State (10-2) a week from tonight, January 5th (7 p.m., Fox) in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl in Phoenix.

(AP Photo/George Nikitin; previous weekly reviews are here)

Raiders 27 Texans 16

Amidst the Chronicle cheerleaders becoming enraptured again during the Texans’ (7-8) first four-game winning streak, the local team reminded us today against the Raiders (4-11) why they have been among the worst-performing new franchises in the history of the National Football League.

Basically, the Texans stunk. The progress that had been exhibited by the Texans’ defense over the past four games seemingly evaporated into thin air as the unit allowed the Raiders offense to do about anything it pleased. Minimal pressure on the passer combined with lax pass coverage and arm tackling is a pretty good prescription for a defeat in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the Texans’ offense looked as if it had never seen a two-deep zone pass defense. QB Matt Schaub’s poor passing statistics (19-36/234 yds/0 TD/1 INT) would have looked even worse but for WR David Anderson turning a short crossing route into a 65 yd reception late in the second quarter. Moreover, despite the Raiders loading up to stop the pass, the Texans’ offense was incapable of running the ball consistently against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

And, to make the Texans’ effort completely intolerable, the special teams allowed an 80-yard punt return for a TD late in the third quarter that — given the way the Texans’ offense was moving the ball — essentially put the game away for the Raiders.

However, the worst part about the Texans’ feeble effort against the Raiders is that — after a month-long reprieve during the the four-game winning streak — we’ll have to endure another week of Chronicle sportswriter John McClain doing his absurd impression of a crusty, old football coach disappointed with his team.

The Texans attempt to salvage a .500 season next Sunday at Reliant in the season finale against the Bears (9-6), who are still vying for a playoff spot. Given the Texans’ tepid improvement on defense over the past two seasons relative to the number of draft choices used on that unit over the past three drafts, my sense is that off-season changes will be made on the defensive coaching staff.

(AP Photo/David J. Phillip; previous weekly reviews are here)

Texans 13 Titans 12

The Texans (7-7), who most everyone in these parts had left for dead a month ago, won their fourth straight game for the first time in franchise history by handing the division-leading Titans (12-2) only their second loss of the season.

The slugfest win certainly was not picturesque. It came about through an odd combination of stellar play from WR Andre Johnson (11 catches for 208 yds and a TD!) and rookie RB Steve Slaton, who slogged his way through the rugged Titans defense for 100 yds on 24 carries, an abysmal day by Titans QB Kerry Collins (15-33/181 yds/1 INT/0 TD’s, another impressive performance for the most part by the Texans defense (holding the Titans to 281 total yds) and an odd go-for-it on 4th down call by Titans’ coach Jeff Fisher in the fourth quarter when a 49 yard-field goal would have given the Titans the lead with two minutes to go. Collins overthrew the 4th down pass, as he pretty much overthrew everything all day, and that was the ball game.

So, will the Texans beat my pre-season over/under prediction of eight wins? Only the Raiders (3-11) next Sunday in Oakland and the Bears (8-6) at Reliant the following week stand in the way of the Texans first winning season.

I must say, these Texan players under Kubiak do not give up.