The National Football League and the NFL Players Association have recently been involved in negotiations to insert language into their current Collective Bargaining Agreement that would require all draft-eligible players to be three years removed from their high school graduation. The proposed rule will not be agreed to in time to affect the draft status of former Ohio State tailback Maurice Clarett, USC receiver Mike Williams, or the six high school players who have entered next month’s NFL draft. Rather, the proposed rule is designed to prevent future players who are not three years out of high school from entering the draft.
In my view, unless the NFL gives high school players the right to opt for professional football before being subject to the proposed three year rule in a manner similar to the current Major League Baseball three year rule, then it is likely to be struck down again. Earlier posts on the Clarett case may be viewed here and here.

Allen St. John in this WSJ ($) article today analyzes Major League Baseball’s top teams from last season with baseball statistician Bill James’s Pythagorean Theory, which concluded that a team’s run differential (runs scored vs. runs allowed) correlates closely with its winning percentage. Unfortunately, the 162 game MLB schedule does not provide enough games to even out all the bad bounces and bloop singles (i.e., bad luck). So, Mr. St. John calculates each team’s Pythagorean winning percentage — which largely eliminates the effects of luck — by taking the square of the total runs they score in a season and dividing it by the sum of runs scored squared and runs allowed squared. Some of his observations:

Luck, it turns out, was a big factor in pennant races last year. In the world of P-Wins, four playoff teams — including the World Champions — would have watched October baseball from their Barcaloungers. The American League Central would have been taken by the White Sox (who had three fewer wins than their P-Win total would indicate, resulting in a P-Win differential of -3), not the Twins (whose real wins topped their P-Win total by five — a differential of +5). The Mariners (-6) should have edged the As (+1) in the AL West. In the National League, the Phillies (-5) should have blown past the Marlins (+3) for the wild card. In the NL Central, the Cubs (+2) would have finished third, behind the Astros (-8) and Cardinals (-4).
This year, it’s a new ballgame. That’s because of a corollary to Mr. James’s theory — luck evens out. Teams that fall short of their P-Win total one season tend to bounce back the next year. Teams that exceed their P-Win total often slip back the following summer
What do P-Wins tell us about the coming season? Looking past the personnel changes, the numbers still tell an interesting story. In the AL East, the margin between the Yankees (+4) and the Red Sox (0) should wither. The Twins should find the White Sox in hot pursuit. In the NL West, Seattle seems primed for a playoff run, likely at Oakland’s expense. And in the NL East, look for the gap between the Braves (+4) and Phillies to get very small.
The NL Central poses an interesting problem. While most of the P-Win differential is due to luck, that isn’t the entire story. Cubs manager Dusty Baker has a career P-Diff of +18, i.e. his teams have won 18 more games than the numbers would suggest. Astros skipper Jimy Williams has a career P-Diff of -24, with just one season in which his team exceeded expectations. The NL Central this year may prove Branch Rickey’s adage: Sometimes luck is the residue of design.

Meanwhile, this interesting MLB.com article describes how many MLB clubs are finally adapting sabermetrician principles to evaluation of baseball players.

Following on this recent post, this MLB.com piece provides more background on Bill James, the original sabermetrician and the pioneer of statistical analysis of baseball. As noted in this prior post, the best current book published annually about baseball is the direct result of Mr. James’ statistical analysis of baseball.

Former Houston Willowridge High School and University of Texas basketball star, T.J. Ford — now a point guard with the NBA Milwaukee Bucks — had his condominium searched yesterday in connection with a criminal investigation into illegal drug distribution in the Milwaukee area. Last month, Ford was the first UT basketball player to have his number retired by the university.

If you prefer insightful analysis of the upcoming National League Central baseball race involving the Astros, Cubs, and others rather than the tired reviews that are typically trotted out in the mainstream media, then read this discussion over at All Baseball.com.

This Home Plate interview with Bill James is a must read for all baseball fans. Mr. James is the original sabermetrician and the pioneer of statistical analysis of baseball. Mr. James’ work has led directly to such excellent baseball books such as the annual Baseball Prospectus, which was touted in this earlier post. Mr. James is now a consultant for the Boston Red Sox, and it is no coincidence that the BoSox have become serious challengers to the Yankees for the AL East crown and for the American League pennant. Now if we could just get the baseball reporters for the Houston Chronicle and other newspapers that follow MLB teams to study Mr. James’ work. It would dramatically improve the reporters’ understanding of baseball, which is generally burdened by many traditional baseball myths that sabermetric research has conclusively debunked.

Melvin Watkins announced his resignation yesterday as Texas A&M University‘s men’s basketball coach. In six seasons at A&M, Mr. Watkins did not post a winning record, going 60-111. The Aggies lost 20 or more games four times in the last five seasons.
Mr. Watkins — as with recently reassigned University of Houston basketball coach, Ray McCallum — is one of the nicest men in the coaching profession. The lack of success that both Messrs. Watkins and McCallum experienced at their respective schools is further evidence that the age-old saying “nice guys finish last” applies to big-time college basketball. While Coach McCallum’s failure at UH was attributable to his inability to recruit effective front court players, Coach Watkins was never able to establish the recruiting pipelines in Texas generally and in the Houston metropolitan area particularly that are necessary for success at A&M. The basketball program at A&M has now been in the tank for almost two decades — it’s most recent NCAA Basketball Tournament appearance was in 1987.

Following this earlier post on the bankruptcy of the entity that owns the Rose Garden, Portland, Oregon’s NBA basketball arena, this Oregonian article provides further background on the financial difficulties of the arena. Interestingly, a substantial drop off in attendance to Portland Trailblazer games is cited as the primary cause of the arena’s financial problems.

One of the nicest men in the coaching profession — Ray McCallum — was reassigned earlier today from his duties as head basketball coach at the University of Houston. With three years remaining on his contract at about $350,000 per year, McCallum was reassigned to a new UH position as a fund-raiser in the development office. His teams were 34-73 overall, 24-40 in Conference USA.
Houston’s once vaunted basketball program has become a coaches graveyard since legendary former Coach Guy V. Lewis resigned in 1986. Since Guy V., Houston has had four coaches and only one has left the program with a winning record. Coach McCallum’s downfall was his inability to recruit effective post players, a necessity in the hard-knuckled Conference USA.

The Houston Astros have announced that they are currently finalizing a deal with former Astros player, broadcast color man and manager Larry Dierker that will put Dierker back in the broadcast booth during the 2004 season. The Astros have arranged to have Dierker team with television play-by-play announcer Bill Brown to broadcast the Astros’ 12 Wednesday home games on Fox Sports Net. Dierker pitched for the Astros from 1964-1976, was their color man on radio for 18 years when his playing career concluded, and then left that job to become the Astros’ manager from 1997-2001.
Dierker is a marvelous talent in the broadcast booth — bright, insightful, and engaging. After managing the Astros, he wrote this book about his baseball experiences. With his addition, the Astros now have two of the best color men working their televised games in Major League Baseball today. Jim Deshaies, another former Astros’ pitcher, is the Astros’ regular color man and is also outstanding. These two men make listening to play-by-play on Astros’ televised games a highly enjoyable experience.