What a deal

hilton_international_2.gifRuss Winter wrote this interesting post analyzing the extraordinary amount of debt that will be needed to sustain Blackstone’s bid for Hilton Hotels:

The total purchase including the balance sheet and debt looks to be about $29 billion. Typifying just how loonie these transactions have become, HLT has operating income of about $1.2 billion, or a mere 4.1% of the take out price. Assuming $25 billion in debt, that would place debt service at about $2 billion a year. Blackstone plans no divestitures, so the math is straightforward, and the presumption is as well, just borrow the balance.

The $25 billion of debt that Blackstone is heaping on Hilton far exceeds Hilton’s book value of a bit under $4 billion, which means that there will not be much a recovery, at least immediately, in the event that things don’t go well and Hilton has to be reorganized or liquidated.
That type of debt risk sure sounds like equity-style risk to me. And with a ceiling on the return of about 8% ($2 billion of debt service on $25 billion in debt). My sense is that the Blackstone limited partners are betting on returns substantially higher than that.

The Apple Rule is Working for Dell

When Michael Dell jumped back into hot CEO seat at Austin-based Dell Inc in February, I wondered whether he and the company would benefit from application of what Larry Ribstein has brilliantly coined “the Apple Rule.”

Well, it looks as if the Apple Rule is working pretty darn well for Dell.

The company just announced that it will miss another deadline for filing its quarterly report with the SEC, making it three straight quarters that the computer giant has failed to file its 10-Q. Nor has Dell filed its annual report for 2006.

Under a strict application of its rules, Nasdaq should delist Dell, but it won’t because the company remains an 800 pound gorilla (i.e., a $65 billion market cap).

Meanwhile, despite all this apparent trouble, the market doesn’t seem all that concerned — Dell’s stock price has increased by 23% since Mr. Dell returned as CEO.

Sort of makes you wonder what might have happened had the Apple Rule been around during far more turbulent times in the fall of 2001 to help a large, innovative company and a couple of its visionary leaders who ended up suffering far different fates than Dell?

The Absorption Nation

immigration_protest.jpgIn this TCS op-ed, Don Boudreaux points out an incongruity in the current political debate over immigration:

In the Declaration of Independence, Thomas Jefferson complained that King George III “has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.”

In a related blog post, Professor Boudreaux asks the following:

Why is it that today, the wealthiest time in our history, so many Americans fear immigration? Why do so few Americans today share Jefferson’s understanding that more free people in America mean an even more prosperous America?

Read the entire op-ed.

Legal investment banking on climate change

Susman.jpgThe Dallas Morning News’ Eric Torbenson examines a potential growth area for business plaintiffs’ lawyers and another burgeoning risk for business — lawsuits asserting responsibility for damagres caused by climate change. And guess who’s right in the middle of it? None other than Houston’s longtime business plaintiff’s lawyer, Steve Susman:

Steve Susman of Susman Godfrey in Houston has been a pioneer in such litigation. He led the charge this year to force TXU Energy into building fewer coal-fired plants in Texas than it had planned.
Now he’s among several lawyers talking with a group of Inuits in northern Canada who have seen an entire island sink under rising seas from global warming. The tribe is weighing its options, including suing carbon-emitting corporations such as power companies for heating the planet, he said.
“Melting glaciers isn’t going to get that much going, but wait until the first big ski area closes because it has no snow,” said Mr. Susman, who teaches a climate-change litigation course at the University of Houston Law School. “Or wait until portions of lower Manhattan and San Francisco are under water.”
Some lawyers are trying to tie the damage from Hurricane Katrina to global warming ñ and the energy companies who may have contributed to that warming.
Mr. Susman predicts large insurance companies, which have paid out billions of dollars in claims in the past two decades because of powerful hurricanes, eventually will become plaintiffs in broad greenhouse-effect litigation against energy companies. [. . .]
“You’re going to see some really serious exposure on the part of companies that are emitting CO-2,” Mr. Susman predicted. “I can’t say for sure it’s going to be as big as the tobacco settlements, but then again it may even be bigger. . .”

Oh, my.

Nimmer on over-regulation of e-commerce

Ray%20Nimmer070607.jpgRay Nimmer, the Dean and Leonard Childs Professor of Law at the University of Houston Law Center, is one of Houston’s foremost legal thinkers and an internationally recognized expert in legal issues relating to e-commerce. Ray’s academic and administrative duties do not leave him much time to blog, but when he does, it’s always worth reading. His latest post is on the risk of over-regulating e-commerce:

In our world, significant change seldom flows smoothly. While many embrace change, others resist it. Some of the resistance is due to what Lewellyn explained years ago: ìYou wake up then to the fact that the throne your subject matter once occupied is overshadowedî; that is a fearful situation for many. The costs imposed on commerce by reaction to that fear are extravagant and harmful.
In my view, rather than protecting the status quo, the role of law generally should be to establish a responsive body of rules that support change and that limit regulation to cases where actual clear abuse otherwise exists. This has been the tradition of U.S. commercial law. But it has not consistently been the way in which law related to electronic commercial transactions has evolved. Instead, we have seen an explosion of new law, often regulatory in nature, . . . Too often, political arguments and interest group politics weigh in toward the view that the proper role of law is to regulate commerce, rather than to support it. Much of this lies simply in a grab for position enforced through law, rather than in the marketplace. . .
But when a regulatory approach is taken in a period of rapid social change, the result is an enormous expansion of new law and we pay a huge price for this. Its short-term effect lies in the creation of an often-bewildering array of new rules and regulations with which commercial entities must deal, and which seldom reflect sound or considered legal or social policy.

Read the entire post.

Rating the NFL owners

bob%20mcnair%20070507.jpgSI.com’s Michael Silver rates the owners of the 32 National Football League teams, and Texans’ owner Bob McNair comes in a respectable seventh:

Like [Redskins owner Daniel] Snyder, McNair is an aggressive, personally invested owner who desperately wants to field a winning team. Unlike the Redskins’ boss, McNair hasn’t even come close to doing so.
Since the Texans joined the NFL in ’02, there have been a lot of dubious decisions on key matters, from the stubborn insistence that David Carr was a franchise quarterback to the selection of Mario Williams over Reggie Bush and hometown hero Vince Young in the ’06 draft. McNair, at the very least, deserves some blame for hiring the people who made those decisions.
That said, he has established a highly valued franchise in a market the NFL had abandoned. He also worked exceptionally hard on last year’s revenue-sharing plan. And, on a self-serving note, McNair’s may be the most media-friendly organization in the league.

If there was ever a sports franchise owner whose team deserved some good fortune on the playing field, then it’s McNair.
Oilers owner Bud Adams comes in 18th, which is somewhat surprising only because it’s hard to believe that there are 14 owners worse than him. Go figure.

EZ-Tag, EZ-Increase

Toll_Plaza.jpgSo, according to this NY Times article about MIT economist Amy Finkelstein’s research, EZ-Tags for electronic payment of tolls along tollroads makes it easier for government to increase the tolls (Tyler Cowen provides further analysis).
Everywhere but Houston, that is.

More on the myth of healthy long distance runners

alberto%20salazar.jpgThis earlier post noted development of research indicating that long distance running over a long term may be hazardous to your health.
Thus, this article from earlier in the week about arguably the greatest American marathoner caught my eye:

Alberto Salazar, the former champion marathoner who collapsed over the weekend, had his condition upgraded Monday from serious to fair.
A cardiologist at Providence St. Vincent Medical Center said tests now indicate that Salazar had a heart attack while coaching distance runners Saturday at the Nike campus outside Portland, said Lisa Helderop, a hospital spokeswoman.
Salazar, who is alert and talking with his family, told a doctor at the hospital that he has a family history of heart conditions, Helderop said. [. . .]
Salazar, a University of Oregon graduate, won the New York City Marathon three straight years (1980-82) and the 1982 Boston Marathon. He has set six U.S. records and one world record. He is a longtime Nike employee and consultant who trains elite distance runners and has a building named for him on campus.

This recent University of Maryland Medical Center study addresses another health risk of long-distance running. And none of the foregoing even touches on the heightened risk of joint and ligament damage that results from long distance running. Take note, runners.

A 4th of July treat

I don’t know about you, but I didn’t know that Kevin Spacey is almost as good an impressionist as he is an actor. Enjoy!

The rebranding of Nick Faldo

Nick%20Faldo%20070307.jpgThis entire Nick Greenslade/Observer article on how Nick Faldo remade himself from a recalcitrant PGA Tour pro to an affable CBS commentator is quite interesting, but I no idea that Faldo is a valuable annuity for the family law bar. Toward the end fo the article, Greenslade summarizes Faldo’s three marriages and divorces:

Nick’s ladies
Melanie Rockall
‘We were happily married for eight months. Unfortunately, we were married for four-and-a-half years,’ Faldo has said of his first marriage, which began in 1979 when he was only 21. . .
Gill Bennett
‘Socially, he was a 24-handicapper,’ Bennett said of Faldo, whom she had met while working as his agent’s secretary when he was still married to Rockall. The couple married in 1986 and Bennett later revealed that the births of their three children, who now live with her in Ascot, Berkshire, had been induced to avoid any clashes with his playing schedule. . . .
Brenna Cepelak
College golfer Cepelak was 20 when she met Faldo, . . . ‘It’s always sad when these things end,’ [Faldo] said. Cepelak responded to the break-up by taking an iron to his Porsche. ‘It was a nine-iron or a wedge,’ recalled Faldo. ‘It was a very special car. It was so hi-tech, it was made of plastic. The club kept bouncing off. It wouldn’t leave a dent. I auctioned it off.’
Valerie Bercher
The third Mrs Faldo, whom he had first met at a tournament in her native Switzerland in 1997, lasted five years. . . . On learning of his son-in-law’s application for divorce last year, Bercher’s father said: ‘We are at a loss to explain. But it is not the first time he has changed his mind. He bought a Bentley recently, but once he had it he was bored with it after a month and got rid of it.’