The futures market for books

Bill Clinton’s autobiography may be hot, and the Harry Potter series continues to set records, but this National Endowment for the Arts survey indicates that such books are becoming an aberration. The study describes a precipitous downward trend in Americans’ book consumption and a particular decline in the reading of fiction, poetry and drama.
Among its findings are that fewer than half of Americans over 18 now read novels, short stories, plays or poetry; that the consumer pool for books of all kinds has diminished; and that the pace at which the nation is losing readers is accelerating; and that the downward trend is occurring in virtually all demographic areas.
The survey also makes an interesting correlation between readers of literature and those who are socially engaged, noting that readers are far more likely than nonreaders to do volunteer and charity work and go to art museums, performing arts events and ballgames. Of literary readers, 43 percent perform charity work while only 17 percent of nonreaders do.
The Census Bureau study upon which the survey was based measured the number of adult Americans who attended live performances of theater, music, dance and other arts; visited museums; watched broadcasts of arts programs; or read literature in the past year. The survey sample ? 17,135 people ? is one of the largest studies ever conducted on the subject of arts participation, and the data was compared with similar studies from 1982 and 1992.
In the literature segment of the study, respondents were asked whether they had, during the previous 12 months, without the impetus of a school or work assignment, read any novels, short stories, poems or plays in their leisure time. Their answers show that just over half ? 56.6 percent ? read a book of any kind in the previous year, down from 60.9 percent a decade earlier. Readers of literature fell even more dramatically, to 46.7 percent of the adult population, down from 54 percent in 1992 and 56.9 percent in 1982. Although the number of readers of literature is about the same now as it was in 1982 ? about 96 million people ? the American population has increased by almost 40 million.
Last month the Association of American Publishers released worldwide sales figures for 2003, indicating that total sales of consumer book products increased 6 percent for the year. Much of the increase can be accounted for by sales of audio books, juvenile titles and nonpaper e-books that are sold online. Adult hardbound books, adult paperbacks and mass-market paperbacks all showed relatively flat revenues in spite of price increases. Interestingly, the one category of book to rise markedly was that of religious texts, with total sales of $337.9 million, 36.8 percent over the previous year.

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