Roy O pitched eight innings of shut out ball and Carlos Beltran scored the only run and made a spectacular catch to take away another as the Stros salvaged the third game of their weekend series with the Rangers, 1-0. Even when they win, this Stros team is tough to watch, as the Astro In Exile attests.
Oswalt was spectacular, giving up four hits in eight innings, walking none (he hit one batter), and fanning nine. Lidge looked good again in closing, and Beltran’s over the wall catch in the first immediately goes on ESPN’s ten best catches of the season.
As they leave Arlington for Chicago, the Stros are 39-36 and six and a half games back of the NL Central leading Cards. Apart from the great acquisition of Beltran, nothing has changed much for the club since my last analysis of the Stros’ season two weeks ago. Apart from Berkman and now Beltran, the hitters are a bunch of slap single hitters with little power. The pitchers have continued a trend of generally improving performances, but Redding‘s performance has been among the worst in the league and, thus, pulls the staff’s overall improved performance down.
Here are the Stros’ hitters’ runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) through Saturday’s games, courtesy of Lee Sinins:
Lance Berkman 40
Jeff Bagwell 13
Craig Biggio 9
Mike Lamb 8
Jeff Kent 4
Carlos Beltran 1
Eric Bruntlett 1
Jason Lane 0
Morgan Ensberg -3
Orlando Palmeiro -3
Jose Vizcaino -3
Raul Chavez -5
Adam Everett -6
Richard Hidalgo -6
Brad Ausmus -14
The Stros’ team RCAA of 36 ranks fifth in the National League overall, which is behind division rivals Reds (64), Cubs (48) and just a bit in front of the Cards (30).
Even though he has cooled off over the past two weeks, Berkman remains one of the best hitters in baseball, and Beltran would have a solid 20 RCAA if you include his RCAA from his time with Kansas City this season.
Bags‘ 13 is deceptive because that is only the eighth or ninth best RCAA among first basemen in the National League (Jim Thome is leading NL first basemen with an RCAA of 41 and Sean Casey is second at 37). Biggio continues his fine season, but is not among the top NL producers in left field. With the exception of Lamb, the rest of the club continues to scruff. Note that JK‘s performance is barely above-average despite the propoganda of a great season that the Chronicle exudes about him, and Everett‘s negative six figure should place him at the bottom of the lineup, where Jimy Williams had him in the game today.
Finally, the veteran outmaker — Ausmus — now has the sixth worst RCAA figure among NL starters, and it is clear that Chavez makes the Stros a better team offensive and defensively (he threw another baserunner out today in a key situation) when he replaces Ausmus. Don’t hold your breath that Williams will notice, though. Ausmus is a veteran who “handles pitchers” well, whatever that means.
Here are the Stros’ pitchers’ runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here):
Roger Clemens 15
Wade Miller 8
Brad Lidge 7
Octavio Dotel 4
Mike Gallo 3
Dan Miceli 3
Pete Munro 3
Andy Pettitte 3
Kirk Bullinger 2
Roy Oswalt 2
David Weathers 0
Brandon Backe -3
Chad Harville -3
Ricky Stone -3
Jared Fernandez -6
Brandon Duckworth -10
Tim Redding -13
The Stros’ team RSAA of 12 ranks seventh in the National League overall, which is behind division rivals Cubs (33), Cards (28), and Brewers (44).
There is actually much good news here. With Pettitte‘s return and Roy O’s RSAA figure uncharacteristically low, both of their RSAA should improve over the next several weeks. The Stros would realize a big benefit from simply replacing Redding with Munro, which should happen unless the Stros’ management goes brain dead. If Pettitte, Oswalt, Miller, and Lidge all trend toward joining the Rocket at the double digit RSAA level, then that will reflect a strong pitching staff for the second half of the season.
Based on current team RCAA and RSAA figures, the Cubs actually should be leading the NL Central by a long shot, so they are actually underperforming more in the win-loss column than the Stros. If performances remain relatively steady (that assumption does not always hold), look for the Cubs to overtake the Cards after the All-Star break, and expect the Stros and Cards to battle it out for second place in the NL Central. I still expect the Reds and Brewers to tail off, the Reds because of abysmal pitching (their great first half hitting will likely tail off in the second half of the season) and the Brewers because of their poor hitting (but they are getting very good pitching, which could keep them in the race longer than the Reds).
The Stros close out the first half of the season with seven games over the next week, four against the Cubs at Wrigley and then a weekend series at the Juice Box next weekend against the Rangers. The club really needs to step it up during these games because losing most of those games against these two good teams could put the Stros so far down by the All-Star break that any hitch in their giddyup in the second half of the season will drop them quickly out of the race for a playoff spot.