James D. Hamilton is an economics professor at Cal-San Diego who specializes in the economics of energy. In this excellent piece, Professor Sullivan summarizes the recent spike in energy prices and compares it to similar spikes of the past. The entire short piece is worth reading, and here is a tidbit to pique your interest:
The current behavior of oil prices is unlike the spike that preceded earlier recessions in two key respects. First, oil prices have gone up not because of a shortfall of supply but rather because of an increase in demand. The world is producing 3 million more barrels of oil each day relative to last year, nearly a 4% increase. But demand is up even more dramatically. . .
This is quite a different situation from other historical oil shocks that were caused by military conflicts that physically disrupted the production or delivery of petroleum, forcing consumers and firms to make less use of this vital input. The current situation is simply that we have to share the increased supply with other consuming nations. There should be no quarrel with the proposition that a booming world economy overall is good economic news, not bad.
The second way that the current oil price spike differs from those that preceded earlier U.S. recessions is that a good part of the recent increase is merely a correction to an earlier dramatic drop in oil prices. The current oil price of $41 a barrel is 45% higher than the $28 price we saw last September. However, it is important to remember that before those September lows, oil had been selling for $36 back in February of 2003, so that the current price is only 15% above what we saw just a little over a year ago. There were similar corrections (an oil price spike following an earlier downturn) in 1987 and 1994 with no apparently adverse economic effects.
For more a detailed analysis of price spikes in energy markets, review Professor Hamilton’s paper “What is an Oil Shock” that he published originally in 1999 and updated in 2001.
Hat tip to Professor Sauer for the link to Professor Hamilton’s work.