Predicting terrorist attacks

Professor Sauer over at the Sports Economist analyzes this interesting David Henderson article and points us to this Pejman Yousefzadeh Tech Central Station article that address the benefits of generating information about terrorist attacks from decentralized sources.
In particular, Mr. Yousefzadeh’s article re-examines the use of futures markets as a predictor of terrorist attacks, which is a creative idea that was scuttled earlier based on emotional, rather than objective, reactions. As Professor Sauer and Mr. Henderson explain, such decentralized sources will often generate more reliable information than our increasingly centralized intelligence agencies are likely to produce. Check it out.
Also, for a fascinating story about a remarkable young man and his family, check out Mr. Yousefzadeh’s biography here. Pejmanesque is his blog.

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