We are only a month into the seemingly endless football season, but this one is already shaping up as one of the most interesting in quite awhile.
Now, note that I didn’t say the best season. Simply one of the most interesting.
Inasmuch as I am no longer posting weekly reports on the local teams, the next three posts are going to be about some of the interesting stories that are playing out during this season.
First up, the Texans.
Despite Sunday’s home loss to the Cowboys, if the Texans can figure out a way to defeat an improved but beatable Raiders team in Oakland on Sunday, then the local club will be 3-1 and ready to receive one of their best defensive players – LB Brian Cushing – back into the fold after a four-game suspension.
Even more amazingly, the Texans quick start has not appeared to trigger unrealistic expectations in Houston’s rabid and success-deprived professional football fans. Most folks seem to understand that the Texans are a curious mix of an explosive offensive team, a decent defensive front, a chaotic defensive secondary and reasonably good special teams.
That mix can definitely win some games in the NFL, but it is also prone to losing its share. Most locals seem to understand this and simply hope that a few random breaks can turn the Texans from the 8-8 team they appear to be into a 10-6 playoff contender.
A few things to watch for with regard to the Texans over the coming weeks:
QB Matt Schaub’s health. Although the Texans’ offense is impressive, one chink in its armor is the tendency of the offensive line to break down against particularly strong, bull rushing defensive fronts and Schaub’s tendency to hold onto the ball too long trying to make the long downfield throw. Those two tendencies result in Schaub taking a large number of sacks and hard hits, which in turn increases injury risk for a QB who has a history of shoulder problems. Inasmuch as Schaub’s backups (Dan Orlovsky and Matt Leinart) have, at least to date, done nothing in the NFL to distinguish themselves, an injury that disables Schaub for any appreciable amount of time would likely doom the Texans’ nascent playoff chances.
RB Arian Foster’s health. Through the first three games of the season, the undrafted Foster is one of the top running backs in the NFL. He clearly is comfortable running in the Texans’ scheme and the Texans’ OL has done a good job to date giving Foster enough daylight to excel. However, the NFL season is brutal, particularly on RB’s who are getting pounded by the opposition 20 times a game. Foster’s backup is Steve Slaton – who has inexplicably gone from a spectacular rookie season two seasons ago to resembling a miniature Ron Dayne now – so don’t count on the Texans being able to maintain their productive rushing attack if Foster gets dinged up. And if the threat of running the ball effectively recedes, the risk of injury to QB Schaub increases as the defensive fronts load up against the passing attack.
Andre Johnson’s ankle. Needs no further explanation.
The secondary’s development. It is rare for a secondary to perform as badly as the Texans’ has during the first three games of the NFL season and the team still come out of it with a winning record. Texans management made a conscious decision to go with youth and potential over experience and mediocrity in the secondary this season, so growing pains for this group certainly are not unexpected. But for the Texans to be able to win games when its offense is not clicking on all cylinders, the secondary is now going to have to fulfill that potential. Such development is certainly not impossible as NFL players now frequently show dramatic improvement over the course of a season. Moreover, a more effective pass rush – a definite possibility with the return of Cushing – also could help the secondary improve. However, make no mistake about it, if the secondary continues over the balance of the season chasing rainbows as they have during the first three games, then an 8-8 record for this Texans team would be a moral victory.
Thus, the Raiders (1-2) game this Sunday will provide key insight into this Texans team. The Raiders are likely not a playoff team, but they are strong defensively. They are challenged offensively, but it appears that even an Industrial League team could scorch the Texans’ secondary at this point. So, the Texans definitely are at risk of loss.
On the other hand, a win makes the Texans 3-1 at the quarter pole of the regular season with a quality reinforcement returning to help in upcoming games. That would seem to be enough motivation for the Texans to take another step in changing their losing culture, don’t you think?
We’ll find out Sunday afternoon. Stay tuned.