Charles Murray reasons (H/T Steve Sailer) that it is becoming statistically less probable that Tiger Woods will catch or exceed Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 major golf championships:

The combination of qualities that enabled Nicklaus to win 18 majors and has enabled Woods to win 14 is freakish.  .   .   .

The role of those psychological strengths is why so much of the commentary about Woods’s play since he returned is beside the point. The commentators focus on whether his component skills are returning to their pre-scandal levels. He can return to precisely the same place on the bell curves of the component skills that he occupied before the meltdown in his personal life, but the package will not be the same. Tiger Woods has experienced a sort of concussion to that Chinese puzzle of psychological strengths, and there must be some residual damage that won’t ever go away.

The long-term effects can be quite small. When we are talking about the extremes of human accomplishment, there is no wiggle room. The package changed at all is no longer at the one-in-many-millions extreme that is required. Woods will still be a sensational golfer, winning a lot of tournaments and probably a few more majors. But to predict that Woods can win five majors between now and the end of his career – something that only 17 other golfers have done in their entire careers – assumes that nothing in the last year has significantly degraded the freakish combination required for extreme accomplishment. I find that assumption untenable.

Murray may be right. As I noted after his last major championship in mid-2008, Woods’ poorly-designed and excessive exercise regimen has damaged his body needlessly. Moreover, his swing has problems and his remarkable putting skills have eroded since his comeback, although that may simply be attributable to concentration problems stemming from the scandal and his pending divorce.

Add to those problems the fact that a half-dozen young, world-class players have emerged over the past two years to challenge for major championships and that only Ben Hogan (8) and Nicklaus (6) have won a large number of majors after the age of 35 (Woods will turn 35 later this year). 

Thus, what once looked like a sure thing isn’t such a lock anymore. My sense is that Woods still can beat Nicklaus’ record, but not unless he makes big changes in his training. And as noted earlier here, does Woods really have any true friends who can help him get pointed in the right direction?