At the midway point of the 2010 season, this Stros club is making a strong case for that dubious distinction.
The Stros ballclub has had its share of bad teams over the years (1962-2010), but six teams stand out. The first four teams in the club’s history –1962 (64-96), 1963 (66-96), 1964 (66-96) and 1965 (65-97) — the 1991 team (65-97) and this season’s club (32-49 through Friday night’s game). No Stros team has lost more than 97 games in a season.
We knew before the season that this was going to be a bad season. But a review of the club’s statistics relative to an average National League team reveals just how bad it has been and how bad it will probably be by the end of the season.
As regular readers of this blog know, I like to use the RCAA (“runs created against average”) and RSAA (“runs saved against average”) statistics, developed by Lee Sinins for his Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, to provide a simple but revealing benchmark of how an MLB club or player is performing relative to other teams or players in its league.
RCAA reflects how many more (or fewer) runs that a team (or player) generates relative to a league-average team (or player). An exactly league-average team’s (or player’s) RCAA is zero.
Similarly, RSAA measures how many more (or fewer) runs that a pitching staff (or an individual pitcher) saves relative to a league-average pitching staff (or pitcher). As with RCAA, an exactly league-average pitcher’s (or team’s) RSAA is zero.
Moreover, RCAA and RSAA are particularly useful because they provide a useful benchmark comparison across eras because it shows how much better (or worse) a team’s hitters and pitchers stacked up against an average team of hitters or pitcher staff during a season. That’s really the best way to compare teams from different eras because comparing other hitting and pitching statistics — such as on-base average, slugging percentage, OPS, earned run average, wins and hitting statistics against — is often skewed between teams of hitter-friendly eras (i.e., up until this season, the past 20 seasons or so) versus pitchers of pitcher-friendly eras (i.e., such as the late 1960’s and early 70’s).
Comparing aggregate RCAA/RSAA scores of the six really bad Stros teams, the 2010 edition is already third worst in Stros history:
1. 1963 (-107/-68) = -175
2. 1964 (-138/ -4) = -142
3. 2010 (-94/-46) = -140
4. 1962 (-101/-24) = -125
5. 1991 ( -39/ -74) = -113
6. 1965 ( 3/-109) = -106
Through 81 games, the Stros hitters have created a mind-numbing 94 fewer runs than an average NL club of hitters would have created using the same number of outs. That’s by far the worst in Major League Baseball (the Orioles are the next worst at -77) and — with still 50% of the season to go — already the fourth worst performance in Stros franchise history:
1 1964 -138
2 1963 -107
3 1962 -101
4 2010 -94
5 1989 -64
6 1982 -63
7 1968 -51
8 1990 -49
9 2006 -47
10 2008 -46
Not one Stros regular player has a positive RCAA, which means that the Stros are comprised entirely of hitters who are generating fewer runs at various levels than what an average National League hitter would create. LF Carlos Lee (-13), SS Tommy Manzella (-16) (before going on the DL) and 3B Pedro Feliz (before he was benched) were among the worst performing regular players in the National League this season. In 81 games this season, the Stros have created an astounding 2 fewer runs on average per game than MLB’s best-hitting club, the Yankees (71 RCAA).
Meanwhile, after muddling around league for the first quarter of the season, the Stros pitching staff has deteriorated to -46 during the second quarter of the season to the point that the staff is now 25th among the 30 MLB pitching staffs this season and is already the 15th worst RSAA in Stros history with half a season to go:
1 1967 -130
2 1965 -109
3 1975 -100
4 1976 -89
5 2007 -79
6 2009 -77
7 1996 -76
8 1992 -75
9 1991 -74
10 1970 -71
11 2000 -69
12 1963 -68
13 1995 -52
14 1973 -51
15 2010 -46
16 1968 -43
T17 1978 -42
T17 1966 -42
19
1988 -36
20 1985 -35
Only Roy Oswalt (8), Brett Myers (5), Matt Lindstrom (4) and Brandon Lyon (2) have positive RSAA’s among regular Stros hurlers. Wandy Rodriguez (-13) and Bud Norris (-15) are among the worst performing starters in the National League
Inasmuch as the Stros are actively peddling assets such as Oswalt, Myers and 1B Lance Berkman (they would love to trade Lee, but no one in their right mind would take on his contract), there is a real chance that the club’s RCAA and RSAA numbers could deteriorate even more during the second half of the season. If that occurs, breaking the club record of 97 losses in a season is a definite possibility.
By the way, one of the most distressing aspects of the Stros’ demise has been the decline in hitting performance. Check out the Stros RCAA hitting performance for the club’s final decade in the Astrodome, which was not a hitter-friendly ballpark:
1 1998 154
2 1995 129
3 1994 107
4 1997 101
5 1996 52
6 1999 43
7 1993 41
8 1992 25
9 1991 -39
10 1990 -49
Now, compare that to the club’s RCAA hitting performance during its first decade in Minute Maid Park, which is perceived as a hitter-friendly ballpark, but is really a neutral ballpark — it favors neither hitters nor pitchers:
1 2000 88
2 2001 64
3 2004 50
4 2002 13
5 2003 10
6 2007 -7
7 2005 -26
8 2009 -34
9 2008 -46
10 2006 -47
And this season’s club is already at a –94 RCAA. Talk about a downward spiral! But that’s what you get for a decade of lackluster drafts.
The Stros are playing out the string this season, but the remainder of the season doesn’t have to be a waste of time. For example, view giving at bats to players such as Feliz and Geoff Blum as an utter waste of time. Instead, give young players in the system an opportunity to show what they can do at the MLB level. If the right deal comes along, then peddle the club’s valuable assets for some solid hitting prospects. The lower levels of the farm system are starting to show some signs of life, so there is already hope even during what just might be the worst season in the history of the Houston Astros.