Houston’s solid housing market

neighborhood_map 052208 One of the under-appreciated benefits of living in the Houston metropolitan area is its varied and reasonably priced housing market, which is the subject of this Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas report. The report notes that Houston’s housing market has resisted the boom-and-bust syndrome that has been experienced in many other U.S. housing markets recently:

Given that Houstonians had access to the same new types of mortgages as the rest of the country and that Houston has had greater population growth than other large metros, we might expect price appreciation to be stronger in Houston than elsewhere. However, the opposite has been true.

Houston’s large supply of land means that demand growth primarily results in more construction, not higher prices. Construction levels are limited by the availability of two kinds of developable land: the previously undeveloped, generally found on a metro’s outskirts, and the redeveloping, usually in a city’s interior. In both cases, Houston’s policies are relatively permissive, making the metro friendly toward development.

The most fundamental difference between Houston and other cities lies in how they provide (or in Houston’s case, do not provide) water, sewer and drainage to developments on the urban fringe. In Houston, developers can create a municipal utility district, or MUD, to provide these services on their properties and can finance these with tax-free bonds. Houston requires developers to build MUDs in such a way that they eventually could be connected to the city’s corresponding infrastructure, but they begin as self-sufficient enterprises.

In other cities, developments must be connected to the city’s water and sewer lines, confining new projects to nearby or adjacent land since the cost of building lengthy lines is prohibitive. In metro Houston, by contrast, virtually any large parcel of land can become a new suburb, especially given the metro’s expansive highway system. Experience bears out this conceptual framework, with significant Houston suburbs like Katy and Spring developing and prospering before many closer-in areas.

But Houston does not just have a larger supply of available land on its outskirts. Unlike all other large U.S. cities, Houston lacks zoning laws restricting industrial, commercial and residential construction to specific neighborhoods. Many inner-city Houston neighborhoods protect property values through deed restrictions diligently enforced by private neighborhood associations, and the large, planned suburban communities operate similarly. But much of the land in metro Houston is not assigned a specific use.

So much land is available in Houston that the cost of each incremental unit rises slowly and keeps the average cost below that of more restrictive metros. Even in the face of significant population growth, this large supply keeps land prices in Houston stable, which over time contributes to lower home prices.  .  .  .

Indeed, Houston and other metros such as Dallas and Atlanta that have relatively more permissive development policies have lower housing prices than more restrictive places do.

At $155,800, Houston’s median house price is the third lowest among the 12 largest U.S. metropolitan areas and is less than half the average for these cities. Houston’s median price is lower than even the national average, which includes inexpensive rural areas.

By comparison, the median house price in metropolitan San Francisco, where zoning laws and building codes are very strict, is $825,400.

This result—more zoning bringing higher prices—is a robust one. Economists Edward Glaeser and Joseph Gyourko find that house prices across the country are positively related to the degree of zoning and regulation. Even in Houston, there is evidence that houses in deed-restricted neighborhoods or in zoned cities within the metro area are more expensive than comparable ones outside these areas. But with plenty of unzoned neighborhoods remaining, Houston house prices, on the whole, are restrained near construction costs.

In summary, Houston’s low-and-slow home prices have made real estate a relatively accessible and safe investment for the area’s residents even as other cities’ markets have become expensive and volatile. The early phases of the current housing downturn—the boom and bust in prices—were barely felt in Houston.

The article goes on to point out that the crisis in the sub-prime mortgage markets has reduced the pool of available homeowners in the Houston market, which is contributing to a downturn in the local housing market. However, the report also notes that that Houston’s housing policies and local economy place it in a strong position to weather the downturn.

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