New Stros General Manager Ed Wade’s first major move was to end Brad Lidge’s career with the Stros. Wade traded Lidge and utilityman Eric Bruntlett to the Phillies for CF Michael Bourn (a Houston native and former University of Houston player), reliever Geoff Geary and AA 3B Michael Costanzo.
I’m a firm believer that you evaluate trades primarily on the front end. A Major League ballclub wants its general manager to take reasonable risks in an attempt to improve the club. Because of the nature of risk, a reasonable trade can turn out bad. The Jason Jennings trade is a good recent example. It was a decent trade on the front end, but injury risk undermined the Stros’ purpose for the trade. Sure, many local pundits condemned the trade after the Stros risk was realized, but that’s an unfair way to evaluate a trade. If a GM is going to be ridiculed after the fact for taking risks to help the club, then that’s going to deter the GM from taking those risks. That’s a poor policy for developing and maintaining a successful ballclub.
Thus, evaluating this trade on the front end, it looks like a pretty good deal for the Stros, despite having to give up Lidge. One of the favorite pastimes of Stros fans over the past couple of seasons has been to psychoanalyze Lidge, who has taken it all in good-natured stride. His story is a compelling one. During the 2004 season, Lidge burst on the scene in essentially his second season of Major Leage Baseball and was, at least for a part of that season, the best relief pitcher in MLB and one of the primary reasons why the Stros won 36 out of their final 46 regular season games to make the playoffs and eventually come within a game of the 2004 World Series. In 94.2 innings that season, Lidge had a microscopic 1.90 ERA and saved 26 more runs than an average National League pitcher would have saved in the same number of innings (RSAA, explained here).
Lidge was very good again during the 2005 season (2.29 ERA/14 RSAA in 70.2 innings), but the first cracks in his armor began to show late that season. With the Stros one out away from the 2005 World Series and Lidge dominating the Cardinals, Albert Pujols hammered a game-winning Game 5 NLCS shot that still has not come back down to Earth. Lidge’s confidence seemed to evaporate in the wake of Pujols’ massive tater.
By the end of the following season (2006), Lidge had performed worse over the course of the season than virtually any other regular member of the Stros’ pitching staff (5.28 ERA/-6 RSAA in 75 innings). It was not really difficult to understand why — Lidge lost the ability to throw his devastating slider for strikes consistently. As a result, hitters laid off Lidge’s slider and laid into his fastball, which Lidge does not locate particularly well. Moreover, Lidge has a long history of arm and specifically elbow problems owing to his violent mechanics — as a starter in the low minors, he appeared in just 19 games from 1999 to 2001. His struggles with his control over the past couple of seasons just might indicate that the future injury risk for Lidge is quite high.
Lidge did make a nice comeback in 2007 (6 RSAA/3.36 ERA in 67 IP) from his horrifying 2006 season, but he still struggled with his control frequently. Curiously, the Stros delayed his knee surgery to remove loose cartilage until after the season, so it’s clear now that they were showcasing him for a possible trade. Lidge is talented and an asset for any pitching staff, but his one dominant season (2004) does not mean that he will regain his stature as a dominant closer. My sense is that Chad Qualls may well end up being a better fit for that role.
Inasmuch as the Stros need to re-stock the young talent on their big league club and in their minor league system, trading veteran talent such as Lidge in his last year before free agency makes sense. Bourn is a potential leadoff man with on-base skills that Willy Taveras never mastered, and he runs and plays CF well. The downside risk on Bourn is that he will be an inexpensive OBP and defensive tool for a couple of years. Finally, picking up Bourn allows the Stros to move Hunter Pence to right field and dangle Luke Scott as trade bait for more pitching.
The prospect in the deal — Costanzo — is not a top notch prospect at third, but he projects as an average MLB 3B by his 270 AVG./.368 OBA/.490 SLG in his age-23 season in AA ball. Inasmuch as it is doubtful that Ty Wigginton is the long range answer for the Stros at 3B, it is conceivable that Constanzo could make Wigginton available as trade bait before the end of next season. That’s the kind of flexibility that the Stros have lacked over the past several seasons as their minor league system became depleted.
Geary can be a serviceable reliever for the Stros, but I’m not going to get too excited about him until I see how he adjusts to the short porch in Minute Maid Park’s left field. He pitched very well for the Phillies during their playoff stretch drive this past season, but ge is not a flamethrower. Right-handed offspeed pitchers (starting with the forgettable 2000 performance of Jose Lima) don’t generally do all that well at Minute Maid. especially pitchers such as Geary who do not generate an overabundance of ground balls.
Nevertheless, I like this trade. Bourn has the potential to be what Taveras probably will never be, Geary can contribute right away and Costanzo is a solid prospect. All in all, a good day’s work for the Stros new GM.
Update: Jeff Albert provides this optimistic analysis of the Lidge deal from the Phillies’ perspective.