As noted earlier here, I am not as sure as most that Tim Purpura deserved to be canned as the Stros general manager. But there were definitely reasons that justified the move, one of which we are reminded of in this excellent Dan Rosenhack/NY Times article on why New York Yankees star Alex Rodiguez will not be worth the money that some team will pay him this off-season after he opts out of his contract with the Yankees:
Few free agents actually produce enough revenue to justify their contracts, and $30 million annually for Rodriguez would not be as outlandish as, say, the $17 million a season that the Astros gave to Carlos Lee last off-season.
At the time the Stros acquired Lee, I expressed the same sentiments. Lee’s stat line for the season to date is a decent 14 RCAA/.350 OBA/.521 SLG/.871 OPS/29 HR’s/111 RBI’s. But that’s not close to the production that one would reasonably expect from a $17 million per year player.
Unfortunately, this is the reality of the economics of baseball. Is anyone really worth this kind of contract? Is there any way to justify financially that A-Rod should get $30M? No, but the market was established when A-Rod got signed by the Rangers (who outbid everyone by $100M). If people want to blame someone for the ridiculous salaries, stop looking at Big Stein in NYC and look to Arlington. Tom Hicks got hoodwinked byy A-Rod’s agent, Scott Boras, and he managed to raise the bar beyond what anyone thought it could or should be. And that is why A-Rod is going to try to get $35M (ridiculous) and Johan Santana, the best pitcher in the game, is going to be shooting for $150-$200M in total money for 7-8 years when he is a free agent in 2008.
As for Lee, unfortunately, that is the going rate for a plus power-hitting outfielder with no speed and no defense (i.e. a DH playing in the National League). Well, that is the going rate if you have to slightly over-pay to get someone to come to Houston. Even with all the advantages of playing here (no state tax, affordable, reasonable passionate fans, management somewhat committed), you don’t here marquee baseball free agents clamoring to come to Houston.
I sincerely hope management returns to the ideas that got them success: pitching. The pitching market is thin this offseason. The Astros should not just be spending money to spend money. If that means going with Roy, Woody, and then 3 younger pitchers (pooled from Wandy, Backe, Patton, Guitteriez, Nieve, Albers, & Sampson) for a year and then waiting to go for broke with a 2008 free agent, so be it. I think fans in Houston willing to see a team that is young if it is at least building towards something. The Tigers did the same thing with Verlander, Bonderman, and Robertson, and they look like they’ll be contenders for years to come.
But then again, it wouldn’t hurt to find a catcher, shortstop, or outfielder that can hit.