Gosh, it’s amazing how fast 20 games go by for the Stros (62-79) when the club’s General Manager and manager are fired in the interim (previous periodic reviews are here). The reactions to the firing were varied (see here and here), and they prompted some dire warnings about the direction of the club. However, as the club started to wind down the 2007 season over the past 20 games, I saw enough to like that I’m cautiously optimistic about the direction of the club.
The past 20 games was really no different from the way the club has played all season. The Stros went 8-12 in this seventh 20-game segment of the season, including ugly 14-2 and 11-3 losses to the Brewers and the Mets over the past two games. The hitting continues to be slightly below-National League average (-9 RCAA), although Lance Berkman (31 RCAA;/.388 OBA/.506 SLG/.894), Hunter Pence (25/.368/.558./926), Carlos Lee (15/.354/.522/.876) and Luke Scott (14/.358/.510/.869) are providing a nice nucleus of solid hitters to build around. The Stros overall hitting places them ninth among the 16 National League clubs.
Nevertheless, the Stros overall pitching has remained atrocious. To put this in perspective, Stros pitchers saved 78 more runs last season than an average National League staff would have saved in the same number of innings (RSAA), which was the best performance by a pitching staff in the National League last season. This season, the Stros pitchers have already given up 83 more runs than an average National League staff would have given up in the same number of innings, which is dead last in the National League.
Thus, with 21 more games to go in the season, the Stros pitching staff is an incredible 161 runs worse than the club’s pitching staff from last season. Frankly, with that size of decline in the club’s pitching performance, it’s amazing that the club’s won-loss record is only 7 or so games worse than the club’s record was last season at this point in the season. If the Stros win half of their remaining 21 games, the club will end up finishing (72-90) a full 10 games worse than last season’s club (82-80).
Despite that somewhat bleak landscape, the reason for my optimism is that Stros’ management has embraced many of my earlier recommendations regarding preserving the club’s assets during the remainder of this lost season. The Stros are not overpitching their best pitching assets (Oswalt, Qualls, Lidge, the rehabbing Backe and Sampson) or there most promising younger pitchers (Patton, Guitierrez, Paulino, etc). They went ahead and had Jennings get his elbow surgery over with so that he might be a viable option for the 2008 season. They are giving younger players such as catcher J.R. Towles some playing time to measure when they might be able to contribute at the MLB level. Although Drayton McLane is interviewing several of the typical hacks who always seem to get their foot in the door on MLB general manager interviews, he is also interviewing some of the younger GM prospects who understand the importance of statistical analysis in evaluating players and who know that re-energizing the Stros’ floundering farm system is the key to turning around the club’s fortunes in the long run.
Meanwhile, with a few solidying moves, next season’s roster could look pretty competitive. Can Towles take over as the full-time catcher in 2008 despite just a cup of coffee at in Triple A and a month in MLB? He is sound defensively and hit very well at Double A this year, and he looks quite agile for a catcher. He’s probably a year away, but the Stros might just take a flyer on him next season and back him with one of the “catch and throw” veteran catchers that the club seems to covet. Let’s just hope that it’s not Ausmus (-15/.317/.322/.639) again.
The club will improve by subtracting Craig Biggio (-14/.285/.392/.677), but Chris Burke (-12/.315/.358/.673) has had a bad season as he again has been deprived of playing his natural position during the prime of his career. I would be inclined to give Burke a chance at second base next season simply because of how badly he has been jacked around over the years, but I also wouldn’t object if the Stros went out into the market and brought in a solid-hitting veteran such as Tadahito Iguchi, who filled in nicely this season in Philadelphia during Chase Utley’s injury.
Shortstop remains a problem and the free agent market for shortstops is horrible this upcoming off-season, so expect Everett to be re-signed assuming that he fully recovers from the broken leg that he suffered earlier this season. Everett has to field at his National League best even to come close to justifying his sub-.600 OPS. Given how bad the the Stros defense has been this season, a healthy Everett is a nice luxury to have at shortstop. But if his range is limited as a result of his injury, it might be time to go try and sign a better hitter such as Edgar Rentaria to play the position for a couple of seasons while developing younger talent at that position. Ty Wigginton (3/.378/.441/.819) has not been much better than Morgan Ensberg (-1/.269/.458/.728 since moving over to the Padres) at third base, so the new GM is going to have to consider filling that hole, too.
But as noted above, Berkman at first base and the outfield of Lee, Pence and Scott is pretty salty. Stros management has mishandled Mike Lamb, so he will probably opt to leave after this season, but he would be a solid utilityman to keep, if possible. And amazingly, a case can be made that the Stros’ traditional pitching depth is likely to turn around this season’s abysmal pitching performance as soon as next season. Oswalt remains one of the best in MLB, and Wandy Rodriguez, Woody Williams, Backe, Sampson, Matt Albers, Patton and Guiterrez are all reasonable prospects to fill out the no. 3-5 spots in next season’s pitching rotation. That leaves the Stros with the same question that they had in this past off-season — who is going to man the no. 2 pitching spot in the rotation behind Oswalt? The free agent market for starting pitching this coming off-season stinks, so it’s not likely that the Stros will find their answer there. There may be too much water under the bridge to bring Jennings back on a “make-good” deal, but the surgery that he is having is not likely to be career-ending. He could bounce back to become the workhorse that he was in Colorado. It is an option worth considering.
Thus, despite this poor season, the Stros do not appear incapable of bouncing back next season if the new GM can pull off a couple of moves to upgrade the roster. On the other hand, if McLane ends up hiring a hack to become the new GM, a couple of moves in the other direction could put the Stros franchise into a downward spiral that will take years to turn around. Although that’s possible (McLane hired Jimy Williams, after all), my sense is that McLane will hire a knowledgeable and innovative GM. McLane is a sharp cookie and he realizes that his window of opportunity to return to the post-season with Oswalt, Berkman, Lee and Pence will close fast if he doesn’t take decisive action in the GM post.
After two more games against the Mets over this weekend, the Stros return home to face the NL Central-contending Cubs (71-68) in what should be a fun series, the Pirates (61-79) in a battle to avoid the NL Central cellar, and then the Brewers (71-68) in a series that will likely have playoff implications. After a final road trip to play the Cards (69-68) and Reds (63-77), the Stros close the season at home in the final weekend of September against the Braves (71-69), who also are not going to make the playoffs this season.
So, it looks as if we can all look forward to watching Biggio play catcher one last time in that final series. In a season such as this one, you have to take your entertainment whereever you can find it.
The season statistics for the Stros to date are below, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros active roster is here with links to each individual player’s statistics:
