Stros owner Drayton McLane finally pulled the plug and fired General Manager Tim Purpura and Manager Phil Garner on Monday as the Stros continue their spiral downward into last place in the National League Central. Although the timing of the firings was somewhat surprising, the fact that McLane let Purpura and Garner go was not.
The decision to fire Garner was actually the easier decision. As noted several times earlier, Garner is not a particularly good manager, although he is far from the worst that the Stros have had (for example, Jimy Williams). Inasmuch as a new general manager will likely want to hire his own manager and Garner is nothing special in that role, letting him go at the same time as firing the GM is a logical move.
Curiously, the tougher decision was on whether to let Purpura go. Although the Stros are enduring their worst season since 2000, this is only the second season over the past 16 in which the club will finish with a losing record. In fact, Purpura has been a key part of a management team for the past 14 years that helped construct the most successful era in the club’s history. He was a part of the player development division of Stros management that produced such star players as Lance Berkman, Richard Hidalgo, Carlos Guillen and Freddy Garcia, and developed a starting pitching staff early this decade that looked at the time as the best young staff in MLB (Roy Oswalt, Carlos Hernandez, Wade Miller and Tim Redding). It certainly wasn’t Purpura’s fault that that potentially fine staff was undermined by injury (Hernandez and Miller) and stunted progress (Redding).
Moreover, Purpura’s GM tenure certainly started out with a bang. In his first season after replacing Gerry Hunsicker, the Stros improbably won their first National League pennant and went to their first World Series. But that World Series season masked a gradual decline in the Stros’ performance level that had been taking place since 2001, and the results of that decline started to appear the following season — the Stros had to finish fast just to eke out a winning record (82-80). Similarly, the 2007 club has deteriorated further as it has struggled all season behind one of the worst performances by a pitching staff in Stros history.
Thus, to a certain extent, Purpura is bearing the fallout from a trend that began long before he replaced Hunsicker as GM. Along those same lines, Purpura probably had nothing to do with the club’s decision to indulge Craig Biggio’s quest for 3,000 hits, an indulgence that has negatively affected the development of younger players such as Chris Burke and Jason Lane (see here and here).
But that’s not to suggest McLane didn’t have any reasons to cut Purpura loose. It appears that Purpura bungled the due diligence on the Jason Jennings trade, and the Woody Williams deal has turned out badly. After giving up the club’s top two picks in this season’s draft in the Williams and Carlos Lee deals, Purpura failed to sign the Stros two top choices (third and fourth round draft choices), further depleting a farm system that has been in decline since 1997. Finally, with this season’s club going nowhere, Purpura was unable to swing a meaningful trade before this season’s trading deadline, which further cemented the perception locally that he was in over his head in the GM’s post.
Despite all this, Purpura leaves the Stros in decent, if not pristine, shape. Yes, the farm system is a mess as far as position players go, but there still are a decent number of pitching prospects who have the potential to contribute to the major league club. Moreover, Purpura locked up stars Oswalt, Berkman and Lee to long-term contracts that, with the possible exception of Lee’s, are well-under current market conditions. Purpura also resisted the temptation to dedicate enormous resources to re-sign fading superstars Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, so the club’s payroll is positioned for a new GM to bid for a couple of free agent pitchers this winter to shore up the pitching staff. The free agent pitchers available after this season are not particularly talented, but at least Purpura leaves the Stros with the financial flexibility to get involved in the market if they so choose.
So, who will McLane hire as the new GM? I don’t have a clue, but my sense is that it will be someone with a strong background in player evaluation and development. McLane realizes by now that the Stros’ current decline is the inevitable result of poor draft choices during the period from 1997-2002. Moreover, the lack of class “A” prospects in the current farm system does not bode well for the selections made in the 2003-2006 drafts, although it is still a big early to evaluate those drafts completely. The Stros franchise has increased in value considerably during the Biggio-Bagwell era and its GM job is now among the more attractive in MLB, but the club is unlikely ever to be the type of franchise that will be able to compete year in and year out with the big-market clubs for free agent talent.
Thus, the lifeblood of the Stros is their farm system, and my bet is that McLane will hire a baseball executive who has the background and expertise to turnaround the erosion in player evaluation and development that has led to this year’s bad season. With a nucleus of Berkman, Oswalt, Lee and Pence, the good news is that it’s not going to take a major overhaul to make the Stros competitive again for the National League Central title.
Houston's Clear Thinkers
Longtime Houston attorney Tom Kirkendall's observations on developments in law, business, medicine, culture, sports, and other matters of general interest to the Houston business, professional, and academic communities.
McLane realizes by now that the Stros’ current decline is the inevitable result of poor draft choices during the period from 1997-2002.
I sure hope you’re right.
At the press conference, he actually was bragging about how Fielder could provide a big boost to their hitting, which (he said) has been their problem.
As you’ve noted before on this blog, the Stros outstanding pitching has somewhat masked their hitting woes in recent years — but this year’s horrible pitching was the real problem with this team as opposed to past Astros’ teams.
I think we (Astros fans) would be better off if we had a sign that Drayton reads this blog, Tom! 🙂
Kev, thanks for the kind words, but I suspect that Drayton is getting so much advice that he doesn’t have time to read this blog! ;^)
I wasn’t able to listen to McLane’s press conference, but I heard him interviewed by Charlie Pallilo later in the afternoon. He sure sounded like an owner who understood that his club’s development system had broken down. I hope that impression is correct because the risk that the Stros will continue to decline is much higher if that is not the case.
If McLane wants to sign impact free agents, the club is going to have to give up top draft choices. If he wants to stay within Selig’s guidelines for signing bonuses, he’s going to have to pass on his 3rd and 4th round choices if they want 1st and 2nd round money. I’m okay with the Garner move, but the Purpura move seems like knee-jerk pandering to the talk radio morons.
I don’t think Drayton’s move was knee-jerk. Suprising that he didn’t wait until the end of the season, but not knee-jerk.
What I don’t think is right is upper management’s insistance on the Biggio issue. I guess you have to have something going on to sell tickets. Secondly, this Jason Jennings deal that could have been thwarted the day he went on the disabled list. I’m still not for sure why we went through with damaged goods. And finally we start trading some of our core pitching staff.
Basically give Garner some rope and let him hang himself is not what happened here. From what I see is that upper management themselves set up the gallows, walked him to it and then hung him. From that perspective, I can see
From what I have read so far, besides the fact that he made three bad trades, it was during the Hunsicker/Purpura and then Tim himself started to dwindle down the Farm System. I agree Tom, Without the Farm system the Astros will never be a World Series team. Some of this is his own fault, some of it beongs to Drayton.
Jimy Williams gets booed at the All Star Game, he’s gone. Purpura gets booed at Bagwell’s number retirement, he’s gone…seems pretty knee-jerk to me. We’ll see how good Tim’s three drafts were over the next few years. From what I understand, there’s a fair amount of talent beneath AA.
You actually had me on your side until you said, “an indulgence that has negatively affected the development of younger players such as … Jason Lane.”
Uh, no. Jason Lane had one good half-season (2nd half of 2005) and that was it. He couldn’t adjust to big league pitching once they found holes in his swing. He’s the classic example of a AAAA player. He’ll hit .300 at Round Rock and .200 in the bigs. The club stuck with Lane well beyond they should have (keeping a more capable Luke Scott in the minors last year and then having Lane/Scott platoon in RF for no reason this season). Lane will never be more than a fourth outfielder who can provide some power off the bench. He’s Daryle Ward.
As for the Biggio thing, blaming the Biggio 3000 Chase for the woes of the offense greatly oversimplifyign things. Was Biggio the best option at 2B? No. Was he as brutal as made out to be by citing a myriad of obscure stats? Maybe not. And don’t get me wrong, I am a stats guy. I buy into them all the way. But Biggio has been a capable player at home this season. I can’t explain why he’s been so bad on the road. And yes, he did ultimately hold Burke back to some extent, but Burke was given the CF job, and blew that on his own. He didn’t seem to play too poorly last year when filling in across the OF, or in 2005 when Garner benched Taveras in the playoffs to get Burke in.
And the failure to sign the draft choices was not Purpura’s fault. Jason Stark at ESPN correctly pointed out (as others have as well) that Drayton wouldn’t pay “above slot” to sign draft choices. Choosing not to give a 3rd round choice 2nd round money was Drayton’s call, and that’s why the Astros spent half of what the next cheapest team did in signing draftees.
You give Purpura far too much credit in signing Lee, Berkman, and Oswalt. Again, Drayton is the one negotiating those deals and deciding not to resign Pettitte and Clemens. Pettitte has been OK for NY (but in the big scheme of things would have been negligible here) and Clemens has been hit-or-miss (and the difference in leagues can’t be blamed here).
You praise Purpura for leaving the Astros in decent shape, pitching prospect-wise, but then hammer the team for drafting poorly. Purpura was the head of player development at the time. He evaluated those players and made suggestions on how to bring the talent along.
I do think Purpura was decent at player development, but his ultimate downfall is that he had no clue about roster management. He absolutely butchered simple roster moves last season, like the Palmeiro bereavement move that led to Lane being recalled from Round Rock when Purpura KNEW he couldn’t send him back down, which ultimately resulted in Eric Bruntlett having to go down when he was hitting 70 points higher and playing comparable defense at more positions. Or waiting too long to recall talent, like with Jason Hirsh last season, when he was destroying the minors at AA and AAA while the big club’s starters were hit or miss behind the Big Three. Or making a panic trade for Jennings after the move for John Garland (CHW) fell through. Or sending Pence to the minors at the end of Spring Training because Garner liked the Lane/Scott tandem better (even while Scott had battled nagging injuries all spring, and ultimately all season).
For Purpura, it truly was the sum of his work. He may not have been over his head, but he sure did give that immpression. Garner’s in-game management decisions and lineups were curious at times and unwise at others. All those “hunches” he played in late-2004, 2005, and late-2006 paid off. Now they are not, and it’s no surprise the club has had a steadily declining record. And don’t forget that aside from the brilliant finishes in 2004, 2005, and 2006, he was 985-1054 (.483) with only 1 season above .500 and only 3 others within 5 games of .500 in his career. We’re not exactly losing Torre or Cox or LaRussa.
And don’t forget Drayton. He is too hands-on. It’s his team, and he can do that if he wants, but he’s going to have to realize (like Steinbrenner finally did) that you have to hire a smart baseball guy and give him some room. Big Stein still held ultimate control in NY during the recent dynasty, but Cashman pulled the strings and made the personnel calls. Spending money isn’t even Drayton’s problem now. He’s got a $90M payroll in a mid-market. That is enough to win with if you spend it on talent that produces, and not Ensberg, Lidge, Everett, Williams, Jennings, etc.
Bouj, you miss my point about Lane and Burke.
I don’t mean to suggest that either of them would ever be as good a player as Craig Biggio was. However, Lane as a 27 and 28 year old was a better player than Biggio in 2003-04, but was blocked from regular play by the ill-fated decision to play Biggio in the OF. Lane was again better than Biggio in 2005 while no longer blocked by Biggio, but then has fallen on hard times over the past two seasons.
Burke is a somewhat different case because, unlike Lane, he has not yet shown that he can produce at an above National League-average clip. However, the fact remains that Biggio has blocked Burke from playing his best MLB position during key development years (ages 25-27) over the past three seasons.
The bottom line is that both Lane and Burke’s development at a key time in their respective careers has been hindered by the club’s indulgence of Biggio. Perhaps that cost was worth it given Biggio’s stature with the club. But that cost of stunted development is certainly hurting the club now.
As for my criticism of the Stros’ drafting, it has been with regard to position players, not pitchers. As a general proposition, the Stros continue to do a decent job of evaluating and developing pitchers.
Finally, I think you give Purpura too little credit for the signing of the stars and too little blame for not signing the draft choices this season. Purpura read the market correctly in signing Berkman and Oswalt to deals of reasonable length. However, failing to determine whether the club’s top two draft picks this year were willing to sign for slot money before drafting them in the first place smacks of the same lack of due diligence that undermined the Jennings trade.
I don’t disagree with the idea Burke would have ultimately been a better choice or that he had his development stunted. But I’m not going to feel bad for him when he blew his shot this year. I do agree that the Astros have allowed older players to block the career paths of prospects (Hirsh, Burke, Lane, even Pence, who is 10 days younger than 4-time all-star Miguel Cabrera of FLA, but was sent to the minors because Garner and Purpura wanted Burke/Lane/Scott in the CF-RF spots). I just think you’re blaming Biggio’s chase for 3000 for the problems of player development and the offensive shortcomings more than it deserves to be.
You can get by with a below-average player in your lineup. You can even survive with a below-average hitter leading off. But if you have a below-average SS, C, CF, 2B, and 3B, you’re done. And that’s what they started with. Biggio became a glaring problem (and a target) when coupled with Ausmus, Everett, Burke, and Ensberg. Even if you ignore Burke because he was still feeling it out, that still means the club made a decision to go forward with horrible offense at SS and C and potentially-bad offense at 3B. I know what Ensberg did in 2005, but there was no evidence that he would ever be an elite-level offensive player, and that’s what the Astros banked on. I’m just saying I think you’ve hammered Biggio more than he deserves to be hammered when the C, SS, and 3B were as bad or worse, even if he was the leadoff hitter.
As for the negotiations, there is both anecdotal and direct evidence that Drayton himself handles “the big contracts” personally while excluding his baseball personnel. It happened with Beltran, Pettitte, Clemens, and Lee. It’s one of the primary reasons Hunsicker left. Even Drayton apologist Richard Justice has said Drayton leaves out the GM and Tal Smith from negotiations and big moves. It’s his right as the owner. It’s not wise, but he can do it.
As to the draft picks, I think they knew the players wanted more than slot money to begin with. If I remember right, the early picks actually fell in their laps because every other team had shied away from them over of signability issues. So you are right on in the Jennings comparison.
(By the way, I do like that you have a different point of view on certain things. I certainly hope you don’t take anything that I am saying about your evaluation of the Astros personally. I certainly enjoy the chance to argue some of these points with you. It’s certainly better than hearing certain 3rd-rate sports talk show hosts and their callers make points and arguments that small children could take apart.)
Bouj, we actually agree more than disagree on the Stros. I’ve been railing for years on the Stros indulgence of Ausmus and Everett and, frankly, the experiment with Burke in CF was not fair to him or the pitchers. And despite my view that I think Biggio should have hung the spikes up after the 2005 season, that doesn’t detract from the fact that he was an extraordinary talent.
Thanks for reading Clear Thinkers and passing along your comments.