As the Stros (54-67) close in on the three-quarters pole of the season, I can’t decide whether it’s more of a reflection of the sad state of baseball analysis in local mainstream media outlets, or simply the remarkably mediocre nature of the other National League Central Division teams, that some media pundits believe that the Stros are still in the race for a playoff spot after posting a 10-10 record over their sixth 20 game segment of the season (prior periodic reports are here).
The reality is that the Stros’ playoff goose was cooked for this season long ago when club management decided to indulge Craig Biggio’s (-11 RCAA) quest for 3,000 hits and to continue playing as regulars such unproductive players as Brad Ausmus (-14 RCAA), Adam Everett (-12 RCAA) and recently Mark Loretta (-7 RCAA). Although it’s fun to try and make it more complicated than it is, baseball is a simple game in which successful teams have hitters who create more runs than opposing hitters and pitchers who save more runs than the opposition’s pitchers. Thus, by adding a club’s runs created against average (“RCAA“) and runs saved against average (“RSAA“), you can quite quickly determine which team is most likely to prevail in a pennant race.
Taking the NL Central as an example, the top four teams all have major deficiencies. The Brewers (62-59) hit well (61 RCAA), but their pitching has fallen off badly (-31 RSAA), so their net 30 RCAA/RSAA score has allowed the other teams in the division to stay close despite playing even worse than the Brew Crew (a precisely average National League team would have an RCAA/RSAA score of 0). The Cubs (61-59) cannot hit a lick (-39 RCAA), but have one of the better pitching staffs in the National League (64 RSAA) for a 25 RCAA/RSAA. The third place Cardinals (58-60) and the fourth place Stros (54-67) are almost precisely the same, average hitting teams (Stros: -3 RCAA; Cards: 5 RCAA) and simply dreadful pitching overall (Stros: -73 RSAA; Cards -76 RSAA) for RCAA/RSAA scores of -76 and -71. That the Cards have won a few more games than the Stros is attributable mainly to luck and the generally poor game management skills of Stros skipper, Phil Garner.
So, what does this all mean? At this point, the Brewers and the Cubs continue to be the favorites to win the NL Central, with the Cubs having the edge because of their superior pitching. Unless the Cardinals’ pitching improves dramatically, their hot streak of late will probably cool off quickly, while the Stros have shown no dramatic improvement in either hitting or pitching performance that would indicate that they are capable of vaulting into contention for the NL Central lead. If Soriano can come back off his injury and nudge the Cubs hitting back toward NL average and the Cubs’ pitching remains strong, my sense is that they will win the playoff spot from the NL Central. If the Cubs don’t win it, the Brewers blend of hard hitting and below-average pitching almost certainly will.
Alas, what the foregoing analysis shows with regard to the Stros is that they have become a far below-average National League club overall. With a minor league system almost devoid of position player prospects at the upper levels, and for a club that is not doing a particularly good job of drafting and signing minor league prospects, the Stros are going to have to look to the free agent market to attempt to salvage another few title runs out of the Berkman-Oswalt-Carlos Lee era. And attempting to rebuild through free agent acquisitions is an expensive and highly risky proposition.
Will Drayton McLane let General Manager Tim Purpura open the pocketbook over this coming offseason and buy the free agent pitching talent that the Stros need to compete for a playoff spot next season? No one but McLane knows the answer to that question. Thankfully, the Stros are no longer burdened with huge financial obligations to Bagwell, Clemens and Pettitte, so McLane is in a financial position to make some moves. But whether he has the confidence to do so is another question entirely. And if he does not, the Stros are going to waste another season or more of Berkman, Oswalt and Lee’s most productive years without having any meaningful shot at playing in the post-season.
As an aside, in the “do you have confidence in Purpura’s transactions” category, former Stros 3B Morgan Ensberg (3 RCAA/.314 OBA/.636 SLG/.951 OPS) and new Stros 3B Ty Wigginton (3 RCAA/.407 OBA/.489 SLG/.896 OPS) have produced at almost precisely the same level since the Stros made the trade for Wigginton and cut Ensberg loose to the Padres? What was the reason for that trade again?
After a weekend in San Diego (64-55), the Stros return home for a ten game homestand against the Nationals (55-66), the Pirates (50-69) and the Cardinals (58-60). With school beginning next week and the football season beginning shortly thereafter, Stros management is about ready to see the smallest crowds of the season as the Stros play out the string. There are simply not enough retirement ceremonies on the horizon to maintain the public’s interest in this edition of the Stros.
The season statistics for the Stros to date are below, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros active roster is here with links to each individual player’s statistics: