Back when the Stros were close to a .500 ball club, I concluded the previous periodic Stros season review (all previous 2007 reviews are here) as follows:

Thus, my sense is that Stros management, for all their declarations of trying to field a playoff contender, is really biding its time this season as Biggio trudges toward his 3,000th hit. There is simply no way that this club will be much better than a .500 ballclub with its current starting pitching staff and Biggio, Everett, Ausmus and the pitcher burdening the hitting lineup on most nights. The Stros should be honest and concede that the club is attempting to compete as well as possible while supporting Biggio’s climb toward 3,000 hits and dispense with the ruse that this club, as presently configured, has any meaningful shot at the playoffs.

Well, as if on the cue, the Stros (26-35) went into the tank immediately thereafter, posting a 6-14 record during the past 20 games (after going 9-12 and 11-9 in the first two eighth segments of the season), including an excruciating 10 game losing streak in which the club gave up a total of 72 runs while scoring only 20. To make matters worse, overmatched Stros Manager Phil Garner panicked as the streak worsened, using nine different lineups, four right fielders, three first basemen, three third basemen and three leadoff hitters. The Stros responded by scoring fewer than two runs in a game five times and allowing eight or more runs in a game five times.
So, just a little over a year and a half since the club’s first World Series appearance, the Stros have turned into one of the worst teams in the National League — only the Reds (24-38) and the Nationals (25-36) have worse records through 37% of the season than the Stros. In fact, the Stros are not much better than the worst teams in all of Major League Baseball, the Rangers (23-39) and the Royals (23-40).
The Stros have continued their long trend of poor overall team hitting, scoring 12 fewer runs than an average National League team would have scored using the same number of outs as the Stros have used through this point in the season (“runs created against average” of “RCAA,” explained here), which is 10th among the 16 National League clubs. But the pitching overall has been even worse, giving up a total of 21 more runs than an average National League staff would have given up through this point of the season (“runs saved against average” or “RSAA,” explained here), which is 12th among the NL clubs. When a club is running a net deficit of -33 runs to what an average National League club would generate hitting or give up pitching, you know that team’s record will be decidedly below-average.
The season statistics for the Stros to date are below, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros active roster is here with links to each individual player’s statistics:

Whenever a team goes south in the drastic manner that the Stros have, fans and pundits tend to criticize everything about the club and its management. In the case of the Stros, that’s unfair, particularly given that the club has had only one sub-.500 season over the past 14 seasons and has been in the playoffs six times in the past 11 seasons. So, it wasn’t clearly wrong to let Clemens and Pettitte go (how would you like to have $35 million tied up in those two injuries waiting to happen?) and, contrary to much of the media’s superficial analysis, the Stros did not give up too much in the Jennings deal that may ultimately be undermined by injury risk. Yeah, the Woody Williams deal hasn’t worked out, but that deal isn’t a bank-breaker and was nowhere near as risky as investing big dollars in Clemens and Pettitte would have been.
As noted in each of the annual previews for the past four seasons (here, here, here and here), the main problem with the Stros has been the inability of the club’s management to replenish the lineup with good-hitting position players as the Biggio-Bagwell era draws to a close. Over the past ten seasons, the only Major League position players that the Stros have developed in their minor league system are 3B Morgan Ensberg, OF Jason Lane, 2B Chris Burke, and rookie CF Hunter Pence. As good as Pence has been so far this season (15 RCAA/.391 OBA/.607 SLG/.998 OPS), that’s not an impressive return on investment in regard to position players in the club’s minor league system.
With few new position players coming up through the pipeline, it hasn’t taken much to turn this season into what appears to be a loss cause. Indulgence of the over-the-hill Biggio (-8/.275/.382/.657) over better alternatives, a season-long slump by Lance Berkman (4/.384/.380/.764), average or below-average hitting by everyone other than Pence and Carlos Lee (7/.351/.528/.879), below-average starting pitching outside of Roy Oswalt (8 RSAA/3.38 ERA), Chris Sampson (6 RSAA/3.43 ERA) and Jennings (5 RSAA/2.70 ERA), spotty relief pitching, and Manager Garner’s typical below-average performance — add all those deficiencies up and you get the mess of the season that the Stros have endured to date.
Is there any hope for the remainder of this season? Well, in terms of competing for a spot in the playoffs, probably not, although the National League Central competition remains tantalizing mediocre. As bad as the Stros have been this season, they remain only six games behind the division-leading Brewers (33-29) in the loss column. Nevertheless, it’s doubtful that this Stros team has the overall pitching talent that drove the second half-of-the-season rallies that resulted in two playoff berths and a near berth over the past three seasons.
Having said that, my sense is that the Stros probably can at least be close to an average National League team if Manager Garner realizes that playing Biggio, SS Adam Everett (-10/.282/.317/.598) and C Brad Ausmus (-7/.322/.313/.635) at the same time and trotting Williams (-14 RSAA/5.79 ERA) out to the mound every fifth day makes the club likely to lose. Biggio, Everett and Ausmus are creating an astounding 25 fewer runs than National League average hitters would generate using the same number of outs as those three have used in the lineup this season. Thus, simply playing Burke (-1/.343/.386/.730), IF Mark Loretta (3/.403/.385/.788) and C Eric Munson (-1/.313/.429/.741) more often in place of those three will likely improve the Stros chances of winning. Similarly, playing Ensberg (-2/.323/393/.716) consistently in recognition of the fact that he is a better career hitter than anyone on the Stros other than Berkman, Lee and Biggio is far more likely to generate useful production from the third base position than any of the other alternatives that the Stros have tried in that position to date. Pitching-wise, there is also some hope because the club’s pitching staff generally performs better as the season wears on and the club does have some viable alternatives to Williams in the club’s minor league system.
After today’s game against the White Sox (26-32) and tomorrow’s makeup game against the Cubs (27-33) , the Stros return to Minute Maid Park on Tuesday for a six game interleague series against the A’s (33-28) and the Mariners (32-26) before going back on the road for a nine-gamer against the Angels (40-23), Rangers and Brewers and then returning for an 11 game homestand beginning in late June against the Rockies (30-32), Phillies (32-30) and Mets (36-24). A 12-8 record over the next 20 games is probably about the best that the Stros could reasonably hope for, which would give the club a 38-43 record at the halfway point of the season (July 1, if no rainouts occur between now and then).