Well, as Kuff noted, it was probably meltdown yesterday on the local sports talk radio programs as local hero Roger Clemens decided to reject the home team Stros and go back to New York for another round with the Yankees. Although it’s fun to watch even a fading Clemens pitch for another several months during the autumn of his Hall of Fame career, the reality is that the Stros are better off that Clemens took the Yankees offer over that of the Stros.
The Clemens deal with the Yankees is the biggest in baseball history by average annual value, $28.5 million for the year or about $18.5 million for the 2/3rds of a season that Clemens will play. Add in the luxury tax hit and the Yanks are committing about $26 million in signing Clemens.
The reason that it’s good for the Stros that they didn’t sign Clemens is that — for any other club than the Yankees — it simply does not make sense to pay that kind of scratch for a number 2 starter. Baseball Prospectus projects Clemens this season as saving roughly 28 runs more than a replacement level starter (think Brian Moehler or Wandy Rodriguez, at least so far this season) and generating 3.5 more wins than a replacement level starter. Given Clemens’ age (44), the fact that he has been nagged by leg injuries over the past three seasons and is going from the relatively weak NL Central to the powerhouse AL East, my sense is that that projection is overly optimistic and that Clemens probably is more likely to be worth only a win or two more than whatever other starter that the Stros will trot out there (the Yankees are already downplaying Clemens’ probable impact on the club). But what the heck, we’re talking Clemens here, so he might just be as good as BP projects. But even so, are 3.5 wins worth $18 million?
No way, at least for the Stros. Clemens will pitch limited innings over the rest of this seaon, that 44 year old body is at high risk of giving out, and the probable Stros’ replacements — particularly Juan Gutierrez at AAA Round Rock or Troy Patton at AA Corpus — will likely be better than replacement level, which reduces the impact that Clemens would have on the Stros. Moreover, even a couple of extra wins is not likely to make a difference with this Stros club between making the playoffs or staying home.
The bottom line is that signing Clemens simply does not address the Stros’ main problem, which is a chronic lack of hitting. The Stros invested $100 million in the off-season to sign slugger Carlos Lee and, through 30 games, Lee has been a below-average National League hitter while grounding into a league-leading 8 double plays. Throwing $18 million at the Rocket only constrains the Stros’ flexibility later in the season to make a personnel moves if a good hitter or two becomes available on the trade market.
Is it worth for the Yanks to spend $26 million to sign Clemens? Probably, because if they didn’t, then the Red Sox probably would have. In a tight AL East pennant race, a game or two improvement from Clemens could definitely make a difference.