Previous posts here and here reported on the Oddsmakers Top 25 Football Poll, a poll developed by Las Vegas Sports Consultants based on the company’s profit motive-driven incentive to provide their sports betting customers the most accurate rating of college football teams. The following is LVSC’s final Oddsmaker’s Top 25, with the BCS ranking in parenthesis:
1. Ohio State (1)
2. Michigan (3)
3. Florida (2)
4. Southern Cal (5)
5. LSU (4)
6. Louisville (6)
7. Oklahoma (10)
8. Texas (19)
9. Notre Dame (11)
10. Wisconsin (7)
11t. West Virginia (13)
11t. California (18)
13. BYU (20)
14. Virginia Tech (15)
15. Arkansas (12)
16t. Boise State (8)
16t. South Carolina (NR)
18. Tennessee (17)
19t. Nebraska (23)
19t. UCLA (25)
21. TCU (NR)
22. Rutgers (16)
23t. Oregon (NR)
23t. Clemson (NR)
23t. Arizona State (NR)
Unranked by Vegas: Auburn (ninth in BCS), Wake Forest (14th), Texas A&M (21st), Oregon State (22nd), Boston College (24th)
In addition to picking Michigan rather than Florida as the proper opponent for Ohio State in the BCS National Championship Game, the Oddsmakers Top 25 raises a couple of interesting issues.
First, the credibility of the Vegas-based poll versus the BCS poll will have a lot riding on the Oklahoma-Boise State matchup in the Fiesta Bowl. The Oddsmakers Poll has Oklahoma 7th and Boise State 16th, while the BCS has Boise 8th and Oklahoma 10th. The initial line has the Sooners favored by a touchdown. My sense is that the Oddsmakers Poll has these two teams more accurtely aligned — Oklahoma and a bunch of other teams in the Top 25 would probably have gone unbeaten if they had played Boise’s schedule.
Despite LSU’s two early-season losses, the Oddsmakers Poll is looking prescient for not giving up on the Tigers. The first BCS Poll had LSU 18th while the Oddsmakers Poll had the Tigers fifth. This week, the Oddsmakers Poll still has LSU at fifth while the BCS has the Tigers fourth.
I say ditch the BCS rating system and let the purity of the profit-driven Oddsmakers Top 25 determine the rankings for the BCS bowl games. It’s all about the money anyway, isn’t it?
Houston's Clear Thinkers
Longtime Houston attorney Tom Kirkendall's observations on developments in law, business, medicine, culture, sports, and other matters of general interest to the Houston business, professional, and academic communities.
Oklahoma and a bunch of other teams in the Top 25 would probably have gone unbeaten if they had played Boise’s schedule.
There’s that, and also the fact that the Sooners really have one legitimate loss, a fact that the computer rankings simply can’t account for.