Texas Aggies 12 Texas Longhorns 7
In the signature moment of Dennis Franchione’s mostly rocky tenure at A&M, the Aggies (9-3, 5-3) rode a magnificent defensive performance and an already legendary 16-play, almost 9 minute, 88-yard fourth quarter TD drive to hand the Longhorns (9-3, 6-2) a BCS bowl-bashing loss. The Aggies surprisingly battered the Horns nation-leading run defense with almost 250 yards rushing, while the Aggie defense gave up only about 160 yards after the Horns came up empty on their initial 75 yard drive to open the game. Horns QB Colt McCoy did not look sharp coming off his injury in the Horns’ previous loss to KSU, and Horns coach Mack Brown’s decision to go with McCoy in the game re-triggered discussion of Brown’s often dubious QB decisions during the pre-Vince Young era. Both the Ags and the Horns will be going to top-flight bowl games, but it won’t be determined which ones until after the Oklahoma-Nebraska Big 12 championship game next week.
Placing an exclamation point on the one of the best stories of the college football season, the Owls (7-5,6-2) pulled out another come-from-behind win to qualify for a post-season bowl game for the first time since the 1961 season. The win was particularly impressive given that the Owls played without star QB Chase Clement, who sat out the game (except for one pass) with an injury. The win also prompted the Chronicle to notice the Owls by finally giving them a headline and a couple of well-deserved front page stories. Heck, the Chronicle even ran a story on another remarkable story that it has ignored for most of the season, Houston RB/WR Anthony Alridge. Better late than never, I guess. The Owls now wait a week or so for their bowl assignment, which quite likely will be in Ft. Worth.
In a game that was unwatchable, the Texans (3-8) rode the incessant mediocrity of QB David Carr to yet another loss in the weak portion of their schedule. As usual, Carr — who appears to be a very nice young man with almost no leadership skills whatsoever — was 39 for 54 for 321 yards with a late TD, one interception, and four sacks, but that included a 19-of-24 performance for 162 yards in the final 8 minutes when the game was largely out of reach. That works out to around a 4.63 yards per pass (YPA), which is horrible and not close to a rate that is required to win consistently in the NFL. In this Weekend Journal article from over the weekend, Allen St. John explores YPA, a simple statistic that is a far better measure of a QB’s true effectiveness than the NFL’s arcane and misleading QB rating. Carr’s YPA is pedestrian this season, as it has been for his entire career. Even more revealing, though, is that Carr’s offensive teammates simply do not respond positively to Carr. It’s time for the Texans to make the change at QB and let Carr attempt to create a productive NFL career for himself elsewhere. It is not going to happen here. The Texans go to Oakland next week to play the equally hapless Raiders (2-9) before returning home the following week to play Vince Young Bowl II against the Titans (4-7).
In this Weekend Journal article from over the weekend, Allen St. John explores YPA, a simple statistic that is a far better measure of a QB’s true effectiveness than the NFL’s arcane and misleading QB rating.
The problem with that statistic is that it’s not JUST a measure of QB effectiveness. It can also be reflective of line play.
Because of injuries along the offensive line — which was poor anyway, and learning a new system to boot — Gary Kubiak has been forced to keep extra protection in (fewer receivers in routes) and almost totally abandon any vertical passing game in order to keep his quarterback upright. Hence, the short horizontal passing game we have seen this season.
I’m certainly no David Carr fan or booster, but the fact is that he’s been better running Kubiak’s horizontal passing game this season than he was running whatever they were trying to run last season. Yes, he still is prone to breakdowns, but even those are fewer.
He’s going to be the starting QB heading into next season. This entire season has been about rebuilding him and having him learn the offense, so I don’t think he is going to be benched at this point (whether we like it or not). Next season, we find out what he’s learned. Sadly, they head into the offseason with the same questions as every season so far: Do we have a franchise QB (I agree that the answer looks like no), and do we have a line capable of taking the load off of him (who really knows?).
Kevin, I certainly agree that Carr is not the only problem with the Texans. And I agree that his YPA reflects not only his mediocrity, but also that of his offensive line.
However, Carr’s poor performance from an objective standpoint, when combined with the total lack of any inspiring intangible benefits to the team, make it appear to me to be a no-brainer to let him go and try someone else. Given the low performance level of the offense, it really couldn’t get much worse and, frankly, if it does, it’s worth the risk to see if a QB change could improve the offensive performance level.
Dan Pastorini was not a very good NFL QB. However, he was tougher than nails and was a QB that the Oilers could rally around when they finally had the other components (i.e., Earl Campbell) necessary to have a good team.
David Carr is a not very good NFL QB and, unlike Pastorini, he does not have the leadership skills to rally his team even if the other components were in place for the Texans to field a good team. His third quarter interception yesterday was incredibly incompetent for a fifth-year NFL QB. The Texans are going nowhere with him. It’s time for a change.
Did the last 8 weeks just happen? Really?
I can’t believe I’m going to a bowl game and my alma mater- Rice- will be playing in it. This ranks close to the 2003 College World Series. Let’s hope UH pulls off the C-USA championship this weekend.
GO OWLS!!!!!!!
The win was particularly impressive given that the Owls played without star QB Chase Clement, who sat out the game (except for one pass) with an injury.
That wasn’t Chase Clement, it was freshman John Shepherd. (I presume you’re referring to the last play of the first half.) I saw Clement on the sideline while the MOB was gearing up for halftime. He was not in uniform, and his right arm was in a sling.
I read the article on YPA but am not sure I agree with the piece. YPA is already factored into the QB passer rating (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating) albeit not as material of a factor as it should be. The problem with YPA that I see is that it is not a predictor of what really counts in football games, winning. I bet there is a better metric out there in the ether that will confound us all but tell a true story about good versus bad QB’s (this site comes close but it seems more complicated than its worth…http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php).
As far as Carr is concerned, I am not willing to lay the blame on the offensive line’s shoulders. I have seen enough games where Carr sits in the pocket way too long and he needs to work on his ball handling (I suggest this post I read last month…http://texans.aolsportsblog.com/2006/09/26/david-carr-and-the-reason-for-mishandled-snaps/)
Being that I grew up in NYC as a lifelong Jet fan it is hard for me to look at this weekend’s game and say that the Jets are a weak team, but I agree that living with Texan losses each year are getting to me…reminds me of the year the Oilers left.