Has it really been only a year since the pre-season review of the Texans’ 2005 season? Look at all that has transpired over the past year:

The Texans had a disastrous start to what was considered a promising 2005 season, which included a first home game roasting of some understandably upset season-ticket holders;
A previously-fawning media bailed out quickly as the Texans ship was sinking, even though some reporters remained quite confused over the Texans seemingly inexplicable decline;
Former Texans general manager Charlie Casserly was initially in disbelief over the season, but then became increasingly defensive over criticism of his personnel management, which — at least in regard to drafting players — turned out not to be as bad as most folks assumed, although it became apparent that selecting QB David Carr with the first pick of the 2002 NFL draft was a mistake;
As the Texans’ fortunes faded, hope sprang anew that the team would be revived by a once-in-a-decade-type running back, only to have those hopes dashed by intrigue and then the selection of what may end up being a more prudent choice in the long run, even though John McClain contended that it is impossible (except for him) to evaluate NFL drafts accurately in the short term;
Coach Dom Capers graciously accepted being cut loose at the end of the horrifying season, but then worked his new job to scam Texans owner Bob McNair for more salary. Meanwhile, despite strong denials from Casserly and McClain that Casserly was being shown the door, Casserly was fired after the NFL draft even while denying that he was being fired, and then confirmed that he was indeed fired a couple of months later;
After three seemingly successful seasons and a fourth disastrous season in the team’s first four years, Texans owner Bob McNair changed the management model for the Texans going into the team’s fifth season;
Increasingly sophisticated statistical analysis of professional football generated some underappreciated factors for determining the outcome of NFL games; and
Although more circumspect about the Texans’ prospects in comparison with the pre-season last year, the local media’s pre-season coverage of the team and its players frequently continues to lack any objective analysis.

Whew! So where does that leave the Texans coming into the 2006 season? Well, certainly not in great shape but, somewhat surprisingly, in better shape than would normally be the case of team coming off a 2-14 season. Indeed, a reasonable case can be made that the Texas are finally moving in the right direction.

To understand where the Texans are at this point, it’s helpful to review briefly where the team has been. The Texans were the toast of the town for their first three seasons of existence in which the team and the local media trumpeted the party line that the organization was building a playoff contender “the right way” — i.e., through prudent drafting and development of young players while eschewing the temptation of the short-term rewards of relying on generally over-priced veterans who were in the downside of their careers. The progressively better won-loss records in the first three seasons (4-12, 5-11, and 7-9) — plus the drafting of young stars such as WR Andre Johnson, RB Dominack Davis and CB Dunta Robinson — seemed to indicate that the Texans’ plan was working.
Unfortunately, those won-loss records camouflaged some big problems. As noted in the pre-season review before last season, the tip-off that the Texans were primed to crater during the 2006 season was that the Texans entered each of their first four seasons with the same two core problems — the Texans’ offensive line could not protect QB Carr and the Texans’ defensive front could not apply adequate pressure on the opposing team’s QB. Although former GM Casserly tried (remember the Texans’ flirtation with Orlando Pace two years ago?), he was never able to address those problem areas effectively, and ultimately that failure was the primary reason that both Casserly and Capers lost their jobs with the Texans.
That’s not to suggest that there weren’t other big problems. In retrospect, Capers’ decision before last season to convert the defense from a relatively successful 4-3 alignment to the 3-4 because that latter alignment tends to give Peyton Manning and the Colts more problems than the 4-3 completely overestimated where the Texans stood relative to such premier teams as the Colts. The Texan players never took to the 3-4 alignment and, as a result, the defense was actually worse than the offense last season, which is really saying something given how abysmal the Texans’ passing offense was last season. In that regard, the offensive line in 2005 continued its contribution to QB Carr’s anxiety-in-the-pocket syndrome as Football Prospectus 2006 concluded that the group was responsible for blowing blocks than resulted in an incredible 36 sacks of Carr. No other NFL offensive team had more than 30.
Which brings us to Carr, who has proven primarily in his NFL career to date that he is not good enough for the Texans to have used the franchise’s first draft pick on him. Nevertheless, that does not mean that he cannot still develop into a productive NFL quarterback. Carr has been treated somewhat unfairly in that he has been hammered physically more than any other NFL QB over the first four years of his career. As a result, Carr has developed understandable anxiety-in-the-pocket syndrome (sometimes called “happy feet”), which has resulted in even more sacks than what the offensive line already gave up through blown blocks. That pocket anxiety, combined with a below-average ability to pick-up secondary receivers and a somewhat side-arm delivery, has made Carr a relatively poor pocket passer during his four-year NFL career. How many top-flight NFL QB’s can you name who have been poor pocket passers?
Nevertheless, Carr is new Coach Gary Kubiak’s reclamation project and a big part of the storyline for this season will be whether Carr becomes a viable starting NFL QB. One of Carr’s contemporaries, Drew Brees, emerged seemingly out of nowhere to become an effective NFL QB in the fourth season of his career, so it would not be unheard of for Carr to show the same type of improvement in his fifth season. However, to hedge the risk that Carr does not develop, the Texans picked up QB Sage Rosenfels from the Dolphins in the off-season to back-up Carr, and he clearly is the best backup QB that the Texans have ever had. So, even if Carr does not improve this season, the Texans QB position has been upgraded.
The primary reason that the Texans’ prospects are looking brighter this season is that the team finally addressed during this past off-season both of the team’s core problems that have bedeviled the team from inception. On the offensive line, the Texans used two third round draft picks on Pitt tackle Charles Spencer and Miami tackle Eric Winston, and both of them are expected to contribute this season — indeed, Spencer will start at one of the Texans’ chronic trouble spots, left tackle (in addition to the flirtation with Pace, remember Tony Boselli?). Veteran center Mike Flanagan and veteran tackle Ephraim Salaam were also brought in from Green Bay and Jacksonville respectively, while veterans Chester Pitts, Zach Weigert, Fred Weary, Steve McKinney and a talented group of tight ends round out what is clearly the deepest and most talented offensive line in the Texans’ short history. That new-found depth is a big part of the reason why the Texans let underachiever OT Todd Wade go during the off-season and waived unsuccessful small college project OT Seth Wand in the final pre-season roster cut.
By the way, despite the fact that the Texans offensive line has not been able to protect Carr adequately, it should be noted that the unit actually has improved steadily over the past two seasons in run blocking. Inasmuch as the zone blocking scheme that the line used last season is similar to the one that Coach Kubiak uses in his system, there is a reasonable probability that the Texans’ running attack will continue to improve this season, despite the fact that the Texans — due to the season-ending injury to Davis — will be depending on a couple of relatively inexperienced running backs this season along with the uninspiring Ron Dayne. Morevoer, even though the loss of Davis is unfortunate, it will likely help the Texans’ offense in the critical area of pass blocking. Davis was an atrocious pass-blocker (he led all non-lineman NFL players last season in blown blocks that led to QB sacks), so it’s hard to imagine any of Davis’ replacements this season being as bad as Davis was in that department.
Similar to the restocking of the offensive line, the Texans also upgraded their defensive front during the off-season. Everyone knows about the first pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, DE Mario Williams, but equally important was the off-season acquisition of DE Anthony Weaver from Baltimore, who is a legitimate run-stuffer to complement DT Seth Payne. With the Texans going back to the 4-3 alignment, last season’s first-round draft choice DT Travis Johnson has emerged as a starter during training camp (allowing the Texans to dump high-salaried DT Robaire Smith) and speedy former LB’s Jason Babin and Antwan Peek were effective pass rushers off the edge in passing situations during the pre-season. Moreover, second-round draft pick MLB DeMeco Ryans looks like a potential star, which is a badly-needed dose of talent in an otherwise mediocre linebacking corps. Thus, the front seven of this year’s Texans’ squad appears to be the first group in Texans history that has the legitimate potential to generate much-needed pressure on the opposition’s QB.
One additional point about Williams. Yes, it’s unlikely that he will be as good an NFL rookie as Reggie Bush. However, it’s easier for a star at the running back position to excel in his rookie NFL season than it is for a defensive lineman. If Williams develops properly, then he should be a solid contributor to the Texans defense for a long time, which will justify the Texans’ use of the first draft pick on him over Bush. To use an Oilers analogy, the Texans — at this stage of their development — need an Elvin Bethea more than they need an Earl Campbell.
Despite the apparent improvement in those two chronic problem areas, the Texans — as you would expect from a team coming off a 2-14 season — still have a myriad of problems. The left offensive tackle, running back and QB situations have already been mentioned, but the defensive secondary beyond star CB Robinson is certainly not top-level NFL quality. Until All-Pro kick returner Jerome Mathis returns from injury rehab, the Texans are relying on cast-offs for their kickoff return men, while kicker Kris Brown has been a below-NFL average kicker during his tenure with the team. WR Eric Moulds is on the downside of productivity in his NFL career and it remains to be seen whether he will be an effective complement to star WR Johnson, although it should be noted that third WR Kevin Walters appears to be a big upgrade over the personnel that the Texans have had in that third wideout position in previous seasons. Finally, by my count, the Texans have at least 12 new starters (seven on offense; five on defense), including five rookies, so it would not be surprising if it takes a few games for those units to begin hitting on all cylinders.
What does all of this mean? Well, not much at this point, but it does appear that the Texans have a reasonable chance of showing dramatic improvement this season. Scanning the 16-game schedule, there are only 3-4 games where it appears at this time that the Texans don’t have a realistic chance of winning the game, so that leaves 12-13 games where the Texans have a legitimate shot of winning. My sense is that winning a third of those games would be a disappointment for this team, although still a significant improvement over last season. Most reasonable people would consider winning half of those winnable games as a successful first season of the Kubiak era, so that means that five is the over/under for the number of Texan wins this season.
Although I won a steak dinner from a friend by taking the under bet on Texan wins last season, I’m taking the over bet this season. That bet is probably not justified by the team’s prospects, so I’m counting on the karma that It’s high time for something good to happen for the football team of Bob McNair, who is one of the classiest professional sports franchise owners in Houston’s history. Let’er rip Texans, and let the chips fall where they may.
By the way, several good local resources for information on the Texans and the NFL have developed over the post year, and I recommend that you check them out:

As noted in an earlier post, Stephanie Stradley a/k/a Texans Chick has been doing a good job of covering the team over the past several months and is preparing for her first season of blogging the team;
Chronicle senior NFL writer John McClain has recently started a blog. Although McClain tends to shoot from the hip more than I prefer, there is no question that he has a wealth of knowledgeable about the NFL; and
Although not technically a blog, Warren DeLuca’s HoustonProFootball.com is “your-balls-to-the-wall source of Houston Texan news, information and wild-ass opinion.”