In my most recent periodic review of the Stros 2006 season, I observed that the personnel moves that Stros General Manager Tim Purpura made this past off-season do not inspire much confidence that he knows what to do in turning the Stros back into a legitimate playoff contender. However, it’s comforting to know that when it comes to the best pitcher in the history of the Stros franchise — Roy Oswalt — that Purpura and Stros owner Drayton McLane know exactly what to do.
In the richest contract ever given to a Stros pitcher, the Stros announced last night that they had signed Roy O to a five year extension worth $73 million, but which could be worth as much as $87 million should the club pick up a $16 million option for the 2012 season. Oswalt will be paid $13 million in 2007 and ’08, $14 million in ’09, $15 million in 2010 and $16 million in 2011. The club can either exercise a $2 million buyout after 2011 or pick up the $16 million club option for 2012. The contract will include a no-trade clause.
While the Stros normally do not do deals for over three years with pitchers because of the high injury risk, Roy O is a special case. Drafted by the Stros ten years ago and developed within the Stros’ heralded (at the time) minor league pitching program, Oswalt jumped from AA ball to the Stros in 2001 and quickly became one of the best pitchers in the National League. Remarkably durable throughout his career to date, Oswalt pitched the key win that vaulted the Stros into their first World Series last season and has developed into one of the best pitchers in MLB history at this stage of his career. Oswalt, who turned 29 yesterday, is tenth in the history of the National League in runs saved against average (“RSAA,” defined here) for pitchers through the age of 28:

1 Christy Mathewson 279
2 Tom Seaver 234
3 Robin Roberts 229
4 Don Drysdale 219
5 Dizzy Dean 207
6 Ferguson Jenkins 196
7 Greg Maddux 189
8 Juan Marichal 177
9 Grover C Alexander 176
10 Roy Oswalt 163
Roy O is also comfortably the Stros’ career leader in RSAA:
1 Roy Oswalt 163
2 Roger Clemens 103
3 Billy Wagner 99
4 Mike Hampton 76
5 Dave Smith 75
6 Octavio Dotel 67
7 Nolan Ryan 60
8 Wade Miller 56
9 Don Wilson 55
10 Joe Sambito 53
Finally, Oswalt’s career 3.09 ERA compares to a league average of 4.29 during the time that he has pitched in the National League.
Thus, although there is substantial risk that this deal could ultimately turn out as badly as the Bagwell contract played out for the Stros, my sense is that locking up Oswalt is a calculated risk that the Stros are smart to take. Roy O is a Stros icon, has shown unusual durability, stays in shape and has that remarkable presence that only big-time players have when it comes to performing brilliantly in high-pressure situtations. Barring injury, Oswalt is well on his way to the Baseball Hall of Fame, along with Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Roger Clemens and perhaps even Lance Berkman, among current Stros players. It’s rarely a bad idea to pay top dollar for that type of talent.
Roy O’s career statistics are below.

The abbreviations for the statistics above are defined here