As the Stros pass the 7/10’s pole and turn on to the stretch run of the 2006 National League regular season (previous 10% segment summaries are here), there is good news and bad news.
First, the good news. For the first time since the first 10% segment of the season, the Stros actually finished their most recent 10% segment — their seventh of the season — with a winning record.
The bad news is that the Stros’ record for that seventh segment (9-7) is not indicative of the type of rally that the this year’s club needs to become a realistic contender for the National League wild-card playoff berth for the third season in a row.
Nevertheless, the Stros continue to muddle along on the fringes of the NL playoff race. Due to the fact that there are not any really good NL teams this season except for the Mets, the 55-58 Stros remain only 3.5 games behind the Reds in the NL wild-card playoff race and only six games behind the slumping Cardinals in the NL Central race (the 59-55 Reds have pulled to within 2.5 games of the 61-52 Cards in that race). So, the Stros are still within striking distance in the NL wild-card race and could even contend for the NL Central lead if the Cards and Reds both collapse down the stretch. But that latter scenario is highly unlikely and even getting to 85 wins on the season — which will probably be the minimum wins necessary to win the wild-card playoff berth — would require that the Stros go 29-19 over the remainder of the season. Given the Stros’ traditionally strong pitching, that type of finish is certainly not impossible, but there has been little indication during this season to date that this particular Stros club is going to be able to pull it together sufficiently to make that kind of run.
As predicted in the previous post in this series, the return of Clemens (2.32 ERA/14 RSAA) and Brandon Backe (3.69 ERA/3 RSAA) — as well as the banishment of Buchholz (5.96 ERA/ -16 RSAA) and Rodriguez (5.22 ERA/-7 RSAA) to AAA Round Rock — has improved the Stros pitching staff’s aggregate runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) to 32, which has vaulted the Stros to 6th from 13th among the 16 NL pitching staffs.
Unfortunately, despite the explosion in last night’s game, the Stros’ chronic hitting woes are diluting the effect of the pitching staff’s improvement on the overall club’s performance. After idling around National League-avereage in runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) for most of the season, the Stros hitting overall declined dramatically over the past 16-game segment, falling to an aggregate RCAA of -33, the lowest of the season to date and 12th among the NL clubs.

The club’s hitting and pitching statistics to date are set forth below, and pdf’s of the current hitting stats are here and the current pitching stats are here, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here:


The decline in the Stros’ overall RCAA reinforces the club’s unbalanced hitting lineup and its steady decline in hitting over the past six seasons. 1B/RF Lance Berkman (45 RCAA/.419 OBA/.625 SLG/1.044 OPS) remains one of the best hitters in the game, but only a few of the rest of the Stros hitters are above-National League-average hitters and one of those — 1B Mike Lamb (8/.365/.513/.878) — is blocked from playing while Berkman rehabs his injured groin while playing first base. Moreover, CF/2B Chris Burke has tailed off considerably to 1/.353/.442/.795 at the 7/10’s pole from 10/.377/488/.859 after 60% of the season, and 3B Morgan Ensberg (13/.394/.485/.879) continues to show a dramatic power drop-off since his return from a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, RF Luke Scott has given the club a nice boost after being called up from Round Rock (14/.459/.691/1.151), but the verdict is still out whether a 28-year old career minor leaguer will be able to sustain that level of hitting over a prolonged period of Major League play, and mid-season acquisition 3B/OF Aubrey Huff — despite his big game last night — still has not really caught fire (3/.388/.500/.888).
On the other side of the hitting coin, the other Stros hitters continue to bleed badly. SS Everett (-22/.295/.331/.626), CF Taveras (-14/.329/.339/.668), C Ausmus (-29/.298/.292/.590) and LF Preston “Double-Play” Wilson (-20/.309/.405/.714); hit into 18 double plays!) — are among the least productive regularly-playing hitters in the National League. Even future Hall-of-Famer Bidg is showing his age (-5/.327/.458/.785). At least Manager Phil Garner has finally placed Wilson squarely on the bench in favor of Scott, but he still tends to play Taveras and Ausmus more than their hitting performance justifies.
Nevertheless, the work of the pitching staff is encouraging. Roy O (3.27 ERA/24 RSAA) and Clemens remain two of the best starters in the National League and, as noted above, Backe has been a considerable improvement over either Buchholz or Rodriguez. The Stros are still searching for a fifth starter and will try AAA-sensation Jason Hirsch in that slot this Saturday, but even Pettitte — who has had a miserable season to date — has shown signs of improvement over the past 16 games (went from 5.50 ERA/-12 RSAA to 4.96/-6 RSAA). Although Manager Garner stubbornly insists on continuing his worst bullpen pitcher — Lidge (5.65 ERA/-6 RSAA) — as the closer when Wheeler (3.06 ERA/8 RSAA) should be in that role, the remainder of the staff has been above-National League-level in terms of RSAA, which bodes well for the rest of the season.
So, while I continue to believe that this Stros club is not quite strong enough to pull out another playoff berth, improved pitching gives them a shot in a weak National League if the hitting stablizes at an average or just below-National League-average level. The Stros have seven games remaining on the current homestand (1 more against the Pirates, 3 against the Padres (58-55) and 3 against the Cubs (48-65)) before going on a three-city, 11 game road trip that will probably determine whether the club will still be in the race for a playoff berth come September. If the Stros win, say, 12 of those next 18 games, then watch out.