Another segment in Houston’s favorite reality show — the Life and Times of Roger Clemens — unfolded yesterday as the almost 44 year-old, indefatigable Rocket announced that he would return in a couple of weeks for his third season with the Stros and 23rd season of Major League Baseball. Clemens’ career stats are here (pdf).
Clemens’ performance during his two previous seasons with the Stros is the stuff of legends as the club reached the National League Championship Series twice, won one of those for the first time in the club’s history, and reached the club’s first World Series. Clemens was arguably the best pitcher in the National League during 2004, was even better than that for the first half of last season, but then nagging injuries prompted him to be much less effective down the stretch and during the 2005 playoffs. Although Clemens is still likely to be better than any of the pitchers on the Stros’ staff other than Roy Oswalt this season, it’s unlikely that his return will be enough to push this Stros club into the playoffs unless the club’s hitters start generating more runs.
Assuming no injuries for Clemens, he will likely pitch between 140-150 innings over the remainder of the season. Assuming no dramatic drop-off in performance levels, Clemens will probably give up between 45-50 runs in those innings, which is probably about 25-35 runs better than the alternative pitcher (probably Fernando Nieve) would give up in those innings. That amount of run savings equates to between three and five extra wins for the Stros.
In a close race for a playoff spot, three to five extra wins is nothing to sniff at. Moreover, the Stros have an aging Major League roster and a farm system that is not stocked with strong hitters, so owner Drayton McLane and General Manager Tim Purpura realize that going for the gusto now is the best chance that the Stros will likely have to get back to the World Series any time soon. But adding Clemens doesn’t address the Stros’ chronic need for more hitting.
Clemens should help a pitching staff that is currently 15th out of the 16 National League pitching staffs in runs allowed, but that statistic is somewhat misleading because it is bloated by the troubles of the Stros’ bullpen; the Stros’ starters have actually been pretty good, currently sixth in the National League in terms of runs saved against average. On the other hand, the Stros are tied for ninth in the National League in on-base average and 14th in slugging percentage, and the club’s corner outfielders — Preston Wilson and Jason Lane — have been performing at below replacement-level this season. The Stros’ hitting woes are probably best summed up by the fact that Brad Ausmus — one of the worst hitters among regular National League players over the past decade — is the club’s fourth-best hitting regular player so far this season. Ouch!
Thus, Clemens should help the Stros, but whether the club ends up in the middle of the race for a playoff spot come September depends not so much on Clemens, but on whether the Stros hitters can generate more runs. With non-hitters such as Wilson, Lane, Taveras, Everett and Ausmus regularly filling up over half of the Stros’ lineup card, the prospects do not look promising.