Where have you gone, Roger Rocket?
That’s the question that most Stros fans are asking at the 3/10’s pole of the season (prior 1/10th of a season posts are here), but it’s the wrong one. It’s highly unlikely that a return of Clemens would make a viable playoff contender out of this 25-23 club, which backslid with a poor 6-10 record during the most recent 1/10th of the season after going 11-5 and 8-8 in the first two sixteen game segments of the season.
The big problem for the Stros over the past several seasons — i.e., declining hitting production (see previous posts here and here) — is combining with far less effective pitching than the Stros have enjoyed over the past two seasons to make this club look very much like an also-ran. Indeed, the Stros already trail the NL Central-leading Cardinals (31-16) by 6.5 games less than a third of the way through the season.

The club’s hitting and pitching statistics to date are set forth below, and pdf’s of the current hitting stats are here and the current pitching stats are here, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia:


The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same is done for the pitching stats here.
As noted above, despite some awful pitching performances over the past 16 games, the Stros primary problem is hitting. During the moribund home series against the Giants when the Stros young starting pitchers fell apart and allowed the Giants to score 34 runs in three games, few people seemed to notice that the Stros scored a total of only five runs in those games. Then, after the Stros peppered the Nationals with nine runs in the first game of the club’s most recent series, the Stros scored a total of seven runs in losing the next three games, including back-to-back one run performances. Even with above-average pitching that the Stros have enjoyed the past two seasons — which this club does not have — it’s hard to win consistently with that type of insipid offensive output.
1B Berkman (13 RCAA/.375 OBA/.605 SLG/.980 OPS) and 3B Ensberg (20/.403/.627/1.030) remain two of the top half-dozen hitters in the National League this season and are the foundation of almost all of the Stros’ run production. Although ageless 2B Bidg (1/.356/.472/.827) is having another solid season at the plate, the rest of the club’s regular players are quickly becoming a collective train wreck at the plate. RF Lane (-1/.335/.411/.746) is at least remaining reasonably productive despite not hitting, but CF Taveras (-10/.322/.321/.642), SS Everett (-10/.271/.331/.602) and LF Preston Wilson (-9/.289/.384/.674) are quickly descending into the twilight zone of MLB hitting. Even over-performing C Brad Ausmus — one of the worst hitters among regular National League players over the past decade (-203/.330/.353/.683) — is showing signs that he is returning to his traditional hitting level after an unusually strong first 30% of the season (4/.377/.412/.789).
The club’s hitting woes are exposing another of this club’s weaknesses — the questionable decisions of Manager Phil Garner. Almost a third into the season, Garner inexplicably continues to trot out Wilson rather than the more productive Chris Burke (5/.575/.413/.988), Eric Bruntlett (1/.378/.372/.750) or even Luke Scott, who is hitting .396./478/.874 at AAA Round Rock. Meanwhile, although Taveras’ defense at least provides a colorable reason for playing him despite his offensive limitations (a trait that Wilson does not share), Garner doggedly continues to place Taveras at the top of the batting order despite the fact that he is quickly becoming one of the worst regular National League players in terms of producing runs. That’s exactly the opposite of what you want to see out of a top-of-the-lineup hitter, and Garner’s stubborn ignorance of that fact is a surefire sign that he does not have the flexibility of a top-flight manager.
Meanwhile, the pitching continues to be below average among the 16 National League teams in terms of runs saved against average (RSAA, explained here), which is a decided downturn over the Clemens-led staffs of the past two seasons. Beyond Roy O (3.36 ERA/8 RSAA), no pitcher on the staff has been particularly consistent, although almost all of them have had their moments when they have been effective. Despite the speed bump of the recent home series with the Giants, Buchholz (4.35 ERA/ 0 RSAA) and Rodriguez (3.88 ERA/3 RSAA) continue to pitch reasonably well for young starting pitchers, and even the less effective Nieve (5.36 ERA/-5 RSAA) had a reasonably strong outing against the Nationals the other day.
However, veteran starter Pettitte (5.76 ERA/-11 RSAA) continues to struggle mightily this season after having the best season of his career last season and most of the rest of the staff has been an accident waiting to happen, particularly troubled closer Brad Lidge (6.53 ERA/-5 RSAA), who is currently the second worst pitcher (after Pettitte) on the staff in terms of runs saved against average. With two spots in the bullpen manned by the ineffectual Mike Gallo (5.54 ERA/-2 RSAA) and Trevor Miller (6.23 ERA/-2 RSAA), this staff does not come close to the depth and overall strength of the staffs of the past two seasons. Such downturns sometimes happen to pitchers, whose performance (outside of the top pitchers such as Oswalt and Clemens) is generally far more prone to broad swings in productivity from season to season than hitters normally experience.
Which brings us back to my point about Clemens. Although it’s unrealistic to expect the Rocket to perform at the extraordinary levels that he produced over the past two seasons, my sense is that his contribution to this club would still be an improvement over Nieve in the starting pitching rotation. Based on a reasonable expectation of productivity, that change in the pitching staff (including moving Nieve to the bullpen and dispensing with a less productive pitcher) would probably save the Stros 10-20 runs over the remainder of the season. While a considerable improvement over current pitching performance levels, that’s not close to being enough runs to push this club into contender status without a big productivity turnaround in hitting (not likely) or pitching (more likely, but not probable).
Thus, the next tenth of the Stros season will likely determine whether the club can remain in the race for a playoff spot. After a series in Pittsburgh against the hapless Pirates (14-33), the Stros play the Cardinals in St. Louis, then the Reds (27-20), the Cubs (18-28) and the Braves (24-23) at Minute Maid Park. Absent a turnaround from the current downward trend — which is not helped by the fact that Berkman will be out for a few days after hyperextending his right knee — the Stros may find themselves being in the unusual position (for them) of playing out the string by mid-June.
Do you think that the Rocket really wants any part of that?