Regular readers of this blog know that I’m a stathead when it comes to analyzing baseball, primarily because statistics provide a testable measure of a player’s skills that are often misevaluated if left to anecdotal visual analysis of such characteristics as physical size, overall athleticism, fielding slickness, or speed of a pitcher’s fastball. As noted in this earlier post (with links to other posts), the statistical analysis of baseball — commonly known as sabermetrics — has improved the evaluation of baseball players markedly over the past 25 years or so.
Despite that overall improvement in evaluating baseball talent, some skills remain difficult to quantify. While watching slick-fielding Stros SS Adam Everett make his first error of the season last night (after making 177 straight plays), I came across this Washington Post article on a new John Dewan book on fielding, which is one of those difficult skills to quantify. The article notes that Dewan is now making progress on the statistical analysis of the defensive skills of baseball players:
Are such skills measurable? Author John Dewan has come closer than anyone else to quantifying defense in his book “The Fielding Bible,” but some skeptics suggest Dewan — with an assist from noted stats guru Bill James, Dewan’s business partner and friend — has just tried to do something that can’t be done. . .
Dewan’s company, Baseball Info Solutions, employs “video scouts” who review every major league game, charting every batted ball and recording its direction, location, speed, type (line drive, fly ball, etc.) and result. Given any combination of those factors, a computer can spit out how frequently such a play is made by the average major leaguer at that position. . .
Some of the results are not surprising. Alfonso Soriano, for example, achieved a rating of minus-40 over the previous three years as a second baseman — meaning he made 40 fewer plays than the average second baseman — which ranked next-to-last behind only Bret Boone.
Interestingly, the WaPo article notes that the fielding skills of New York Yankees star SS Derek Jeter — last season’s American League Gold Glove winner at shortstop — are wildly overrated:
James, for instance, spends 4 1/2 pages near the front of the book explaining why Houston’s Adam Everett is a far superior shortstop to Derek Jeter. In fact, Jeter, according to James, was “probably the least effective defensive player in the major leagues, at any position” over the last three years.
Nevertheless, current Detroit Tigers General Manager Dave Dombrowski exemplifies how many in baseball continue to prefer relying on what they can see and touch on an anecdotal basis rather than the cold, hard facts:
“Some people think you can [quantify defense]. I don’t really buy that myself,” Dombrowski said. “I’ve looked at some of those new formulas. I’m not sure I would believe everything I’ve seen there. It’s one of those things where, if you study [the players] yourself, you can have a better feel for those things than any numbers can tell you.”
I haven’t followed Jeter in great detail, but I’ve never really seen what it was that others seemed to see in his defense. But as much interest as I take in defensive talent among middle infielders (says the onetime Little League second-baseman), I’m curious to see how Jim Edmonds comes out on the defensive rankings. While his highlight reel catches seem to portray a gutsy, do-anything type of fielder, there seems to be just as many critics who point out that most such plays are due to being out of position in the first place. I’m not entirely sure how fair that criticism is to Edmonds, but I guess that’s why I hold out hope that there’s some progress on better analytical tools for baseball defense.
Now, with that said, let’s hope that the push for more statistics on this front go better than the NHL’s failed efforts several years ago.