Crude oil closed above $70 a barrel yesterday for the first time despite the fact that U.S. oil inventories are at their highest levels in nearly eight years. Thus, this current price spike appears to be a reflection of a new phenomenon — investment in oil futures driving higher prices rather than the typical principles of supply-and-demand.
The U.S. is the world’s largest oil market, generating almost a quarter of world demand of about 85 million barrels a day. U.S. benchmark oil for May delivery settled at a record of $70.40 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $1.08 a barrel. Although oil prices are up almost 15% for the year, the inflation-adjusted record price for oil remains the April 1980 price, which equates to $97.21 in 2006 dollars. Yesterday’s price came after the U.S. Energy Department reported last week that commercial crude-oil inventories had risen to 346 million barrels, the highest level since May 29, 1998. At that time, the crude-oil market was about to crash and, by the end of 1998, prices fell below $11 a barrel from an average of over $18 in late 1997.
The seeming contradiction of rising prices and inventories probably is best explained by concern over supply constraints in Iraq and Nigeria and the steadily increasing demand in large countries such as China and India. As a result, investors are flocking to oil markets where it is currently estimated that investment managers are holding between $100 to $125 billion in commodities investments, which compares to less than $10 billion in such investments back in 2000. That level of investment indicates that the market is betting that demand for oil will continue to rise under tightening supplies.
For over a year now, the three-year bull market in oil has resulted in what energy traders call “contango” — i.e., futures contracts for a given product are priced substantially higher than that same product for near-term delivery. As a result, it pays to buy and hold oil now to sell it later at the higher price. “Backwardation” is the opposite of contango and occurs when near-term prices are higher than long-term contracts. That market condition would prompt buyers to dump inventories, which would in turn dampen prices considerably.
For more expert views on the current spike in oil prices, check out James Hamilton (also here and here) and the Oil Drum.