Any brief perusal of the Stros/Baseball category of this blog will reflect that I am a big supporter of the folks at Baseball Prospectus, who produce the flat-out best research and analysis of baseball on the planet. A couple of days ago I received my copy of Baseball Propectus 2006 and, as usual, it’s combination of witty writing and first-rate statistical research and analysis makes it essential reading for anyone who wants to keep up with the current status of MLB teams and players. I actually take my copy of Baseball Prospectus with me to each of the many Stros games that I attend each season.
The lastest edition of Baseball Prospectus — as with the past two annual editions — is bearish on the Stros, primarily because of the club’s reliance on high-priced aging stars Bagwell and Biggio and an overall lack of talent in the farm system. My more optimistic appaisal of the Stros allowed me to one-up Baseball Prospectus in predicting that the Stros would be a playoff club last season (pre-season post here), although I must admit that — during both of the past two seasons — there were times that I was ready to throw in the towel on the Stros, too.

This year’s edition of BP continues its pessimistic tone toward the Stros because of the club’s failure to correct an overall lack of hitting, but my sense is that BP’s overall negative tone is overblown due to BP’s under-appreciation of the Stros’ pitching talent, both at the MLB club level and in the farm system. Not only can the Stros continue to to be a playoff-caliber club based on their pitching, the club can patiently sit back and wait to parley some of the club’s pitching depth for a hitter or two that would improve the overall balance of the club.
Nevertheless, BP’s capsule summaries of each MLB player continue to be priceless, as reflected by BP’s following analysis of Clear Thinkers’ whipping boy Brad Ausmus and Stros’ pitcher Brandon Backe: First, Ausmus:

There are few players in the history of baseball who have been as consistently bad and consistently on the field as [much as] Ausmus. His offensive production has been a significant problem for every team he’s ever been on. Sherri Nichols long ago coined the “Nichols Law of Catcher Defense,” which states that a catcher’s defensive reputation will be inversely proportional to his offensive contribution. This is certainly true in Ausmus’ case, as is the unstated corollary that one’s clubhouse rep will also behave in said fashion. Though Ausmus’ Gold Glove is worthy of its luster, it can’t begin to make up for the runs forgone. Apparently ravenous for players likely to post on OPS within 40 points of 625, the Astros have re-upped Ausmus for two more out-encrusted seasons.

And then Backe:

Pretty much a vanilla #5 starter. Backe’s missing a great pitch and has a pretty generic repertoire. No one expects him to develop into anything more than Kyle Lohse, but with a bat comparable to Brad Ausmus. Think we jest? Backe’s a career .246 BA/.303 OBA/.393 SLG hitter with an ERA a shade under 5.00. Ausmus is a .255/.332/.353 hitter, and he doesn’t even pitch.

Meanwhile, although BP is not particularly enamored of the talent in the Stros’ farm system, check out the following description of the farm system of one of the Stros’ Central Division competitors, the Cincinnati Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds player development system is worth of the term “farm” only in the sesne that the Stalinist collectives of the 1930’s Ukraine were a farm system — they caused millions to starve to death. While the Reds system is unlikely to cause widespread famine, the club will have to subsist on a truly thin diet in the next few years; the organization is almost completely bereft of blue chip talent.