2004 Nobel Laureate Edward Prescott is a Clear Thinkers favorite, and his work on Social Security reform reflects (here and here) a remarkable ability to present economic principles in a clear manner. In this Wall Street Journal ($) op-ed, Mr. Prescott criticizes playing politics with tax rates on capital gains and dividends, and — in so doing — provides this astute reasoning on the adverse economic effect of taxation:
So what are good tax rates? It’s useful to begin with consideration of a simple principle: Taxes distort behavior. From this powerful little sentence comes the key insight that should inform our thinking about setting tax rates. Any tax, even the lowest and the fairest, will cause people to consume less or work less. Taxes that are inordinately high only exacerbate this reaction, and the aggregate accumulation of these individual decisions can be devastating to an economy.
Good tax rates, then, need be high enough to generate sufficient revenues, but not so high that they choke off growth and, perversely, decrease tax revenues. This, of course, is the tricky part, and brings us to the task at hand: Should Congress extend the 15% rate on capital gains and dividends? Wrong question. Should Congress make the 15% rate permanent? Yes. (This assumes that a lower rate is politically impossible.)
These taxes are particularly cumbersome because they hit a market economy right in its collective heart, which is its entrepreneurial and risk-taking spirit. What makes this country’s economy so vibrant is its participants’ willingness to take chances, innovate, acquire financing, hire new people and break old molds. Every increase in capital gains taxes and dividends is a direct tax on this vitality.
Americans aren’t risk-takers by nature any more than Germans are intrinsically less willing to work than Americans. The reason the U.S. economy is so much more vibrant than Germany’s is that people in each country are playing by different rules. But we shouldn’t take our vibrancy for granted. Tax rates matter. A shift back to higher rates will have negative consequences.