Over the years, I have been blessed to have had the opportunity to represent several professional and major college football coaches in their contract negotiations and related legal matters. Through that experience, I have become friends with quite a few coaches and personnel experts in both professional and major college football.
As noted in this earlier post, I have been disappointed in the local sports media’s (with the notable exceptions of the Chronicle’s John Lopez and talk radio host Charlie Pallilo) lack of evaluation of the Texan GM Charlie Casserly‘s personnel decisions, I decided to ask a friend with extensive experience in evaluating college and NFL players to review and assess Casserly’s Texan draft picks. My friend graciously agreed to do so, and his final evaluation contains some surprising and interesting observations.
First, a note on the format of the evaluation. My friend categorized the 38 Texan draft choices over the past four NFL drafts into three categories — good , decent (neither good nor a bust), and bust (i.e., bad). Moreover, my friend further broke down the draft picks into two further categories — (i) draft picks chosen in rounds one through four of the NFL draft, and (ii) draft picks chosen in rounds five through seven. “A GM should have a better batting average in rounds one through four because those picks should generate a solid NFL player at least three out of four picks,” reasoned my friend. “Rounds five through seven are more of a crapshoot, so the batting average is usually lower. If a GM picks an NFL-quality player in half of his picks in the latter rounds, then he is doing an average job. Picking more than that reflects someone who knows what he is doing.”
Second, my friend is no fan of Casserly, who he has dealt with professionally. “An arrogant know-it-all,” my friend observed about Casserly. “He is obsequious to people from whom he can benefit (such as owners and reporters), and insufferable to everyone else.”
Despite his dislike of Casserly, my friend believes that Casserly has done a reasonably good job for the Texans in choosing players in the NFL draft. Of the 38 total picks, my friend concluded that Casserly chose 26 players (68%) who are either good or decent NFL draft picks, and 12 (32%) who were busts. 13 of the 38 picks (34%) were good ones and 13 were decent. “I would prefer to see a higher percentage of good picks, closer to 50%,” commented my friend. “But making good picks 68% of the time in the NFL draft is certainly above-average and actually pretty darn good.”
Of the 19 total picks in the first four rounds of the draft, my friend concluded that Casserly had 7 (36%) good picks, 9 (52%) decent ones and only 3 busts. “I would prefer to see the number of good and decent numbers switched,” noted my friend. “But making good or decent picks 88% of the time in the first four rounds of the NFL draft is well above-average.”
Similarly, my friend was impressed with Casserly’s selections in rounds five through seven. Of those 19 picks, my friend concluded that 6 (32%) were good and 4 (21%) were decent. “Hitting on 53% of the players in those rounds is above-average,” observed my friend. “And hitting on 6 good players in the 19 picks in those latter rounds is very good.”
Several of my friend’s observations on specific picks were also quite interesting. For example, on Jason Babin (LB 2004 first round), Seth Wand (OT 2003 third round) and Travis Johnson (DL 2005) — all of whom are often cited as Casserly “bust” picks — my friend disagreed and characterized each of them as decent picks, at least at this point in the evaluation process.
“Babin started and played reasonably well as a rookie, and then he has been injured while learning a new system in his second season,” my friend noted. “He may not be a star, but he can still develop into a solid NFL starter.”
As for Wand, my friend observed: “He’s a small college player who has been pushed too fast at this level. That doesn’t mean he won’t eventually become at least an average NFL player.”
With regard to Johnson, my friend pointed out that his inconsistent play this season is at least partly attributable to being thrown into a poorly-organized defensive unit that is just now adjusting to the change from the 4-3 to the 3-4 defense. “He’s not Reggie White,” my friend chuckled. “But it’s way too early to characterize him as a bust.”
So, why don’t the Texans have enough good players? “Well, I haven’t analyzed Casserly’s free agent and trade transactions, so those certainly could have something to do with that,” observed my friend. “But remember, quality depth is built up over time and the Texans are still a young franchise. Wand is a good example. He was a decent pick, but he is a project and thus, might not have been the best fit for a team such as the Texans that needs players who can play at the NFL-level as soon as possible.”
And what about the Texans’ coaching? “I do not see an overabundance of players who appear to be developing at an above-average rate, particularly in the lines,” commented my friend.
So, should Casserly be fired or retained? “I have only analyzed his draft picks, which is only one factor to consider in answering that question,” replied my friend. “The issue of whether Casserly should be retained or fired includes a number of other factors, such as his free agent and trade acquisitions, how well he supports the coaching staff, the management of the scouting staff, and the manner in which he has handled personnel problems.”
“One thing that would concern me if I were Bob McNair,” my friend went on to observe. “Is that the Texans’ main problems going into the past three seasons have been protecting the passer and rushing the passer. Going into next season, the Texans’ main problems are protecting the passer and rushing the passer, and now they don’t even stop the run very well. The failure to address those problems is a valid criticism of Casserly.”
“But if you are going to fire Casserly,” concluded my friend. “Do it for reasons other than his draft choices. In that particular area, he has done a pretty decent job.”
Monday Morning QB (December 19, 2005)
Conventional fantasy football wisdom: Some fantasy football magazines will tell you to pick up a player?s backup if the player is injury-prone or likely to be benched at some point. Rob’s fantasy football wisdom: That?s big time bunk. I knew it and did…
Any evaluation of drafts has to include players that were passed on to take player X, plus any trade to move up in position, etc. Babin may yet turn out to be a decent NFL player, as your friend says, but the fact we traded picks to move up to get the guy has to be considered in the evaluation of that pick. We also passed on a decent O-lineman to get D-lineman Travis Johnson, which was quite frankly not a need area for us. They should have traded down further to get more picks to make up for those wasted in the Buchanon trade, but then again, Charlie had McNair convinced that guy could play, when all it took was reading a Bay Area newspaper in the last couple of years to see he couldn’t.
However, I am glad to see some positive evaluation of our talent base (at least what was aquired through the draft). It leaves me with a little more hope that with some decent coaching, the Texans can turn it around.
Don, I asked my friend about the picks of Johnson and Babin in relation to other talent available. He responded that Casserly has been somewhat hamstrung in the last two drafts because they have not been deep in quality offensive linemen, which was the other of the Texans’ needs in addition to their pass rush. He observed that the only OL available at the spot that they took Johnson was OU’s Jamaal Brown, who my friend noted has played at New Orleans about as inconsistently as Johnson this season. In regard to Babin, the OL who would have been available was Alex Barron, who has been similarly inconsistent at RT for the Rams. My friend did not consider either of those OL obviously better choices than either Johnson or Babin.
Having said that, and although he did not analyze all of Casserly free agent acquisitions and trades, my friend noted that Casserly got taken to the cleaners on both the Bosselli and Buchanon deals.
Agreed on Brown, but he’s better than what we have now – we just cut Victor Riley, for instance, and were starting that guy opening day. They could have traded down further to address that need and gotten some value picks. For instance, Logan Mankins (OL), taken as the last pick in the 1st round, is starting for the Patriots, while Travis Johnson is nothing more than a rotation guy, and a third option at that.
I agreed for the most part with your friend’s evaluation, but was puzzled by what criteria he was using to judge some of those picks – for instance, both Jammal Lord and Vontez Duff were graded as decent, and their greatest accomplishments so far are to consistently make the inactive list (Duff is already on his second team). Granted, they were 6th round picks, which are always a reach, but I didn’t understand his thinking with those two. Lord was a college QB, he could have been brought in as a street free agent. And don’t even get me started about how lame that Dave Ragone pick was – 3rd round picks should be for players who can help you, not a freaking 3rd string QB.
Great piece, though. I wish the Chronicle would get off its duff to do some stuff like this.
I think your friend was on the right track but he missed on a few points..
Jarrod Baxter a good pick…he is no longer on the the team.. Wells is playing his spot behind Moran Norris.. Fred Weary didn’t dress out this year until they let Riley go.. Glenn Earl missed a lot of his rookie season (knee injury from ND) and the first 10 games this year… Babin, Wand, Hollings (knee rehab only 4 games as RB at GT), Peek,Pettway and Anderson are all projects.. The Texans are an expansion team and need not projects or clever dealings but players who can play and produce NOW..So no OL lineman are available at the time these guys were selected..fine they have also failed in free agency with Wade, Weigert, Mckinney and Riley. Does anyone really think that they had to giveup so many picks to move up to the 27th pick to get Babin? Babin would in all likeyhood have been there at their 2nd round pick..I love Ragone..but a 3rd round pick on a backup QB.. So these players might not neccessarily be busts in the future but they were the wrong picks for an expansion team…
:O) I believe a great move for the Texans would be to do a 3-way trade with the Jets and the Raiders that would be beneficial to all, especially attendance/revenue for Texans.
The Texans would trade their #1 overall to Jets for their #4 overall, and either a Jets 2nd and 5th rounder… or 3rd and 4th rounder.
Then obviously the Jets select R.Bush(HB) and now Texans get their homer in V.Young(QB) at #4. Then the Texans would trade D.Carr(QB) and maybe a later pick or two (4th & 6th round?) in compensation to the Raiders for their #7 overall where the Texans would pick up M.Huff(FS).
Giving them both of the most stand out players who just won the same state a National Title at the prestigious Texas U. Now the Texans have two early 2nd round picks (from Jets) and can grab Mercedes Lewis(TE) and either get more O-line or front-7 with the other early 2nd rounder and the rest of the way.
Do you realize the speed & explosiveness the Texans would posses in the secondary and at key offensive positions? omg
One thing to remember for Texans GM (David Casserly) before they pull the trigger on this deal so it is fail safe is to go ahead and draft Bush (yet letting the other teams know involved with the deal) but you’re going to wait until it’s Jets turn and Young is still on the board.
Just something to add as well… since Huff is gone from the Lions grasp at #9 remember… through all this Cutler is still on the board, so Lions get him if the Saints haven’t moved down and he hasn’t already been selected.
I’d like to send this to the Texans GM but do not know how to get a hold of him. Something to read on his lunch? :O) By the way… I’m a 26 year old Packers fan for sometime now and have no invested interest in this what so ever but for the love of football. I’m just glad it looks like A.J. Hawk will be a Packer. :O)
~Landon Bigelow
~Tualatin, Oregon
how could charlie casserly possibly pick mario williams. what a pathetic gm and he is one of the worst in the buisness. This will go down as one of the stupidest draft moves in history. Even if he is the next julious peppers a defensive end cant be a threat to score touchdowns every time he touches the ball. This doesnt justify passing vince young the hometown favorite or even anb elite running back such as reggie bush. I REST MY CASE FIRE CHARLIE CASSERLY!