This Rand Corporation study concludes that many of the improvements in health that medical advances have bestowed upon middle-aged and older Americans will likely be effectively erased over the next 20 years if Americans’ weight continues to increase.
The proportion of health care expenditures associated with treating the consequences of obesity would increase from 14 percent in 2000 to 21 percent in 2020 for 50-69 year-old men, and from 13 percent to 20 percent for women in the same age group, according to the study to be published in the March/April edition of Health Affairs ($).
Absent changes in health behavior or medical technology and assuming obesity trends continue through 2020, the study predicts that the proportion of people 50-69 with disabilities (those who are limited in their ability to care for themselves or perform other routine tasks) will increase by 18 percent for men and by 22 percent for women between 2000 and 2020.
These statistics — coupled with America’s broken health care finance system and accelerating Medicare costs — indicate that health care in America is headed for a day of reckoning soon. In my view, one of the Bush Administration’s biggest political problems in the upcoming election is the perception of many Americans that the administration ignores major domestic issues such as these.