Willy Taveras should not be the NL ROY

Taveras2.jpgI understand that the Stros’ public relations department wants centerfielder Willy Taveras to be the National League Rookie of the Year, but why does the Chronicle lap up such nonsense with unqualified support?
As noted in this previous post, Taveras did reasonably well this season jumping from Double A ball to the Major Leagues, but he remains a decidedly below-average player in the most important aspect of baseball, which is creating runs so that your team can score more than the opposition and win games. Taveras generated 13 fewer runs this season than an average National League hitter would have generated in the same number of plate appearances (“RCAA“).


Moreover, in almost every key offensive category — on-base average, slugging percentage, OPS, etc. — Taveras is not only below average, but far below average. Batting lead off for much of the season, Taveras drew only 25 walks (an average NL centerfielder would have had over twice that many) in about 625 plate appearances (Lance Berkman, in comparison, drew 91 in about 560 plate appearances), and had only 20 extra base hits (an average NL centerfielder would have had 49). Although Taveras’ defense improved during the second half of the season, the runs that he saves by his defense is less than 5 per season and, thus, not close to offsetting the deficit that he generates in run-scoring. Only because of his batting average (.290) — which happens to be among the most misleading of hitting statistics — is Taveras considered by superficial observers to be a good player. Taveras’ on-base percentage — a much better indicator of run-scoring potential than batting average — was .324, well below the National League average of .339. In short, being fast and beating out bunts and infield grounders does not equate necessarily to being a good ballplayer.
Taveras is only 23 and made the difficult jump from Double A ball to the Majors this season, so he still may improve over the next several seasons. If he can improve his walk rate to raise his on-base average to around .380 or so, and improve his power to an average or just below-average slugging percentage, then Taveras can be a reasonably effective National League centerfielder. But Taveras remains a well below-average National League player at this point, and lapping up the Stros’ propaganda that he should be the Rookie of the Year Award is not a particularly good way to be objective about the fact that he needs to improve in order to become even an average National League player, much less an award-winning one.
By the way, the Phillies’ Ryan Howard should be the NL Rookie of the Year.

2 thoughts on “Willy Taveras should not be the NL ROY

  1. I did a post back in August (linked in my name) on how much Taveras stinks that compared him to 1989 NL Rookie of the Year Jerome Walton. He actually was a surprisingly decent player at home, though.

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