So, after vanquishing the Braves for the second straight season in the National League Divisional Series, the Stros (89-73) face a 2005 rematch of the thrilling 2004 National League Championship Series against their arch-rival — the St. Louis Cardinals (100-62).
As was the case before the 2004 series, the Cardinals have had the better season (combined RCAA/RSAA of 168 to the Stros’ 75), but the two clubs are surprisingly evenly-matched coming into the NLCS. The Cardinals hit better than the Stros and actually have a slightly stronger pitching staff overall, but the Stros front three starting pitchers are the best in baseball and their key closers are pitching better than the Cards’ main closers at this point. In fact, since bottoming out in late May, the Stros had precisely the same record as the Cards over the final 120 games of the seasons — 74-46 for .617 winning percentage. Thus, the 2005 NLCS — as with last season’s seven game gut wrencher — has all the makings of another close, hard-fought series.

The biggest discrepancy between the two clubs is in hitting, and there is really no way to get around that problem for the Stros. The following are the Stros hitters’ final runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) for the 2005 regular season, courtesy of Lee Sinins:
Morgan Ensberg 39
Lance Berkman 35
Craig Biggio 8
Jason Lane 6
Orlando Palmeiro 1
Jeff Bagwell 0
Charlton Jimerson 0
Charles Gipson -1
Todd Self -4
Eric Bruntlett -5
Luke Scott -6
Humberto Quintero -7
Jose Vizcaino -8
Chris Burke -12
Raul Chavez -12
Mike Lamb -12
Willy Taveras -13
Brad Ausmus -14
Adam Everett -21
The Stros ended up at a -26 team RCAA for the regular season (12th out of the 16 National League teams), which means that the Stros scored 26 fewer runs than an average National League team would have scored during the season.
The Stros lineup is not particularly balanced, but it’s not without strengths, either. Lance Berkman (35 RCAA/.411 OBA/.524 SLG/.935 OPS) — as with the Cards’ Albert Pujols — is one of the best hitters in the game, and Morgan Ensberg (39 RCAA/.388 OBA/.557 SLG/.945 OPS) has had a remarkable season. Moreover, although Jason Lane (6/.316/.499/.815) started slowly in his first season as a regular, he has produced at the same level as Ensberg (13 RCAA) since the All-Star break. Similarly, Mike Lamb has had generally horrible season (-12/.284/.419/.703), but he has picked it up recently, hitting 8/.319/.392/.609 over the final month of the season. Finally, 40 year old freak-of-nature Craig Biggio (8/.325/.468/.793) has had a wonderful season, but the remainder of the Stros’ hitters are an amalgamation of young and old punch and judy hitters, Ausmus and Burke‘s latest historic yaks notwithstanding.
On the other hand, the Cardinals — although not hitting as well as they did last season — still hit considerably better than the Stros. Here are the Cardinals hitters’ RCAA:
Albert Pujols 75
Jim Edmonds 30
Larry Walker 16
Reggie Sanders 12
John Rodriguez 6
John Gall 1
David Eckstein 0
Hector Luna 0
Chris Duncan -1
Skip Schumaker -1
Scott Rolen -6
So Taguchi -6
Scott Seabol -7
Mark Grudzielanek -8
Roger Cedeno -9
Mike Mahoney -9
Abraham Nunez -9
John Mabry -10
Einar Diaz -15
Yadier Molina -21
The Cardinals team RCAA of 38 was 5th among the 16 National League teams. Although not as strong as they would be with a healthy Scott Rolen at third base, the Cards’ lineup is still reasonably bullish now that Walker and Sanders have come back from injuries to complement Pujols — arguably the best hitter in the league — and Edmonds, who is hitting at about half his RCAA from last season. The Cards’ hitting approach is essentially to get men on base at the top of the order and then whack them in with their power in the middle of the lineup. Although this Cardinal team does not steal many bases, they really do not need to do so because they rely on big innings generated from the power-hitters in the middle of the lineup.
However, if this series is going to be won by the Stros, it will because of the Stros’ pitching, particularly their starting pitching. Here are the Stros pitchers’ most recent individual runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here), although the number for each pitcher (except for Clemens and Pettitte) will change slightly based on the final week of the regular season:
Roger Clemens 53
Andy Pettitte 43
Roy Oswalt 32
Brad Lidge 14
Dan Wheeler 13
Chad Qualls 7
Mike Gallo 4
Travis Driskill 0
Scott Strickland 0
Chad Harville -1
Mike Burns -3
John Franco -5
Russ Springer -5
Brandon Backe -7
Brandon Duckworth -12
Ezequiel Astacio -14
Wandy Rodriguez -20
The Stros pitching staff’s 97 team RSAA was second only to the Cardinals staff’s 130 RSAA among the 16 National League teams. The Rocket and Andy Pettitte finished 1-2 in National League RSAA, and Roy Oswalt finished seventh. That performance by the three primary Stros starters is one of the finest seasons by three starting pitchers on one staff in modern baseball history. With Lidge, Wheeler and Qualls all pitching well out of the bullpen, the Stros have the most formidable pitching staff of any club in the 2005 playoffs.
However, the Cardinals’ pitching staff is not chopped liver and, as noted above, has had an even better overall season than the Stros’ staff. Here are the Cards pitchers’ most recent RSAA numbers, which will change slightly when the final week of the regular season statistics are included later:
Chris Carpenter 40
Jason Isringhausen 13
Al Reyes 13
Mark Mulder 12
Jeff Suppan 11
Cal Eldred 9
Brad Thompson 8
Julian Tavarez 6
Jason Marquis 5
Matt Morris 5
Ray King 4
Randy Flores 3
Anthony Reyes 2
Gabe White 2
Tyler Johnson 1
Bill Pulsipher -1
Adam Wainwright -2
Kevin Jarvis -3
Jimmy Journell -3
Carmen Cali -4
Carpenter missed the tail end of last season and the postseason, so having him at the front of the rotation gives the Cardinals one of the only pitching staffs that matches up reasonably well with the Stros’ staff. Carpenter has had the Stros’ number so far this season — going 4-0 in five starts against them — but the Stros got to him in their final game against him and there are whispers that Carpenter is battling arm fatigue from the heavy load of innings that he has pitched this season. The remainder of the Cardinals’ staff is essentially a group of above-average pitchers who will provide quality starts more often than not, which is about all the Cardinals need because of the high number of runs the club’s lineup generates. One potential chink in the Cards’ armor is their bullpen, which has not been as strong as last season and could be lit up in a game where the starter is blown out early or the team gets into a Stros-Braves Game Five-type extra-inning marathon.
So, there you have it. The clubs tangle in St. Louis tonight and tomorrow night, then come to Houston for three games over the weekend and on Monday, and then back to St. Louis for two games next week if the series goes that far. Although the Cardinals dominated the season series by winning 11 of the 16 games, that really doesn’t mean much nwo. Berkman was not involved in a bunch of those early games, and the Cardinals’ starting pitching depth is not as important in a short series as it is over the long haul. Busch Stadium is a bit more of a pitcher’s park than Minute Maid Park, although Minute Maid is not as much of a hitter’s park as many media and fans perceive. Both teams have sufficient power hitting to generate a slugfest or two even with the clubs’ outstanding pitching. The Cardinals have been on cruise control for the past couple of months — including in their easy divisional series against the Padres — so the competitive edge definitely favors the Stros, who have had to fight and claw for both a playoff berth and then a divisional series victory in the longest playoff game ever played. If the Stros pitchers can keep the scores low and the Stros’ hitters can continue their timely hitting from the Braves’ series, this is definitely a series that the Stros can win.
But don’t expect it in less than seven games. ;^)