Didn’t we just preview a series between these two teams?
For the fifth time in less than a decade, the Stros and the Braves — two of the most successful National League clubs during that era (see this timely Wall Street Journal ($) interview with Atlanta GM John Schuerholz) — meet in a post-season playoff series. The Braves have won three of the previous series, but the Stros won the one that means the most to this series — i.e., the most recent one last season.
Interestingly, both the Stros and the Braves are a different type of club than they were last season, and they are quite similar teams. Each team has several strong hitters, but both clubs are below average hitting-wise overall with the Braves being slightly stronger in that department. Similarly, both teams have strong pitching staffs, although the Stros are stronger than the Braves in that department. Overall, both clubs have a combined RCAA/RSAA score of around 70, so these are evenly-matched clubs. Indeed, the Braves won just one more game than the Stros during the regular season.

The following are the Stros hitters’ final runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) for the 2005 regular season, courtesy of Lee Sinins:
Morgan Ensberg 39
Lance Berkman 35
Craig Biggio 8
Jason Lane 6
Orlando Palmeiro 1
Jeff Bagwell 0
Charlton Jimerson 0
Charles Gipson -1
Todd Self -4
Eric Bruntlett -5
Luke Scott -6
Humberto Quintero -7
Jose Vizcaino -8
Chris Burke -12
Raul Chavez -12
Mike Lamb -12
Willy Taveras -13
Brad Ausmus -14
Adam Everett -21
The Stros ended up at a -26 team RCAA for the regular season (12th out of the 16 National League teams), which means that the Stros scored 26 fewer runs than an average National League team would have scored during the season. However, the hitting has stabilized over the second half of the season as the club has a 2 team RCAA since the All-Star Game. Had the club been able to maintain just that barely above average level of hitting throughout the season, the Stros pitching has been so strong that the club would have challenged the Cardinals for the NL Central Division title.
The Stros have four reasonably strong hitters — Morgan Ensberg (39 RCAA/.388 OBA/.557 SLG/.945 OPS), Lance Berkman (35/.411/.524/.935), Craig Biggio (8/.325/.468/.793) and Jason Lane (6/.316/.499/.815). Since the All-Star break, Berkman has been the club’s best hitter with a 24 RCAA, and actually Lane and Ensberg have produced at the same level (13 RCAA) during that period, although Ensberg had a much stronger first half of the season.
Beyond those four hitters, the Stros are pretty much a hit and miss (mostly miss) group. The only other Stro regular with much hitting potential is Mike Lamb, who has had a generally horrible season (-12/.284/.419/.703) but has had a strong 8 RCAA since September 5th. With the exception Jeff Bagwell — who has been relegated to pinch-hitting duties since returning from shoulder surgery to contribute to the playoff drive down the stretch of the regular season — the rest of the Stros are a mish-mash of singles hitters with below-average on-base averages. That’s the primary reason why the Stros are a below-average hitting club.
On the other hand, the Braves’ hitters are a bit better, but they aren’t reminding anyone of the 1927 Yankees, either:
Chipper Jones 33
Andruw Jones 22
Marcus Giles 14
Jeff Francoeur 9
Rafael Furcal 5
Wilson Betemit 1
Ryan Langerhans 1
Julio Franco -1
Pete Orr -2
Eddie Perez -3
Todd Hollandsworth -4
Brian McCann -4
Brayan Pena -4
Andy Marte -8
Kelly Johnson -9
Adam LaRoche -9
Raul Mondesi -11
Brian Jordan -13
Johnny Estrada -19
The Braves have a 2 team RCAA, which places them 9th among the 16 National League teams. Andruw Jones (22/.347/.575/.922) has gotten the most publicity of all the Braves hitters this season because of his 51 yaks, but the other Jones — Chipper (33/.412/.556/.968) — is actually the more productive hitter. Marcus Giles (14/.365/.461/.826) and Rafael Furcal (5/.348/.429/.777) are reasonably steady hitters with good speed, and Jeff Francoeur (9/.336/.549/.885) has had a better rookie season than the Stros’ rookie Wily Taveras, but he slumped badly at the end of the regular season and shares Taveras’ dubious aversion to accepting walks that would make his on base average better than an average National League hitter. The remainder of the Braves’ hitters are similar to the lousy Stros hitters, although the Braves bad hitters do have a bit more power than the Stros bad hitters.
In the pitching department, the Stros have a clear edge, but the Braves pitchers are not chopped liver by any means. Here are the Stros pitchers’ most recent individual runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here), although the number for each pitcher (except for Clemens and Pettitte) will change slightly based on the final week of the season:
Roger Clemens 53
Andy Pettitte 43
Roy Oswalt 33
Brad Lidge 14
Dan Wheeler 13
Chad Qualls 7
Mike Gallo 4
Travis Driskill 0
Scott Strickland 0
Chad Harville -1
Mike Burns -3
John Franco -5
Russ Springer -5
Brandon Backe -7
Brandon Duckworth -12
Ezequiel Astacio -14
Wandy Rodriguez -20
The Stros pitching staff’s 100 team RSAA is second only to the Cardinals staff’s 130 among the 16 National League teams. The Rocket and Andy Pettitte finished 1-2 in National League RSAA, and Roy Oswalt finished seventh. That performance by the three primary Stros starters is one of the finest seasons by three starting pitchers on one staff in modern baseball history. With Lidge, Wheeler and Qualls all pitching well out of the bullpen — and with Backe already a proven commodity in post-season play — the Stros have the most formidable pitching staff of any club in the 2005 playoffs.
As noted above, the Braves pitchers also are a solid group. Here are their most recent RSAA numbers, which will change slightly based upon the final week of play:
John Smoltz 34
Jorge Sosa 28
Tim Hudson 19
Blaine Boyer 8
Kyle Farnsworth 8
Mike Hampton 7
Chris Reitsma 6
Kevin Gryboski 3
Jay Powell 2
Jorge Vasquez 1
Frank Brooks 0
Matt Childers 0
John Foster 0
Seth Greisinger 0
Jim Brower -1
Anthony Lerew -1
Macay McBride -1
John Thomson -1
Roman Colon -4
Kyle Davies -4
Tom Martin -4
Joey Devine -6
Dan Kolb -6
Horacio Ramirez -6
Adam Bernero -11
The Braves 71 team RSAA is fourth in the National League. Smoltz is the best post-season pitcher of this era, and Sosa has developed into a legitimate stud. Tim Hudson has already shutout the Stros earlier this season, although that’s probably not that big a deal given how often the Stros have been shutout this season. The Braves pitching problem this season has been an inconsistent bullpen, although former Cub Kyle Farnsworth has provided an unexpected boost in that area during the second half of the season. Here’s hoping that he reverts to his Cubs form during the playoffs.
So, there you have it. Two closely matched teams playing for the probable opportunity to take on a somewhat diminished Cardinals team for the National League Championship. Although it seems simplistic to say that the team that scores the most runs will probably win the series, each run scored will be a precious achievement during this series given the strength of the pitching on both clubs. I expect a tense, close, low-scoring series that will go the entire five games and produce a winner that will beat the Cardinals in the NLCS. Now let’s sit back and enjoy the ride. Game one of the series begins today at 3 p.m. with Pettitte going for the Stros against the Braves’ Hudson, and then tomorrow’s second game of the series gets prime-time coverage at 7 p.m. as Clemens and Smoltz tangle.